Cheltenham vs Grimsby prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

By /

Cheltenham vs Grimsby: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

League Two
Cheltenham

LWLDW

Full time2-2Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
Grimsby

DWDDD

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or Grimsby

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Cheltenham 2-2 Grimsby
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Grimsby at 46.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 55.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.8% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 67.2% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 58.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.3% and it landed (10 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 53.4% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.8% and it landed (20 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 51.7% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 88.9% and it landed.

Match data Cheltenham Grimsby
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 2
Shots 8 12
Shots on target 4 5
Corners 3 7
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 8 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GrimsbyWin probability
46.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Draw or Grimsby71.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners61.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

The model leans Grimsby at 46% when Cheltenham host Grimsby in the League Two on 5 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 49%. • No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Cheltenham, 2 draws and 3 for Grimsby over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. • Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Cheltenham against W2 D4 L0 for Grimsby. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.036 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Grimsby win46.1%@ 2.17
Over 10.5 corners40.9%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Medium risk

Both teams to score58.0%@ 1.72
Over 2.5 goals55.1%@ 1.81
Cheltenham or draw54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.37
1-2 correct score9.3%@ 10.72
0-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.61

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cheltenham

28.5%+3.4%

Draw

25.5%-0.3%

Grimsby

46.1%-3.0%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.036 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.8%

High probability

Over 2.555.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.1%

Good chance

Over 10.540.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersCheltenham50.4%Grimsby38.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.9%

Good chance

Over 24.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.8%2.555.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CheltenhamLWLDW
GrimsbyDWDDD

Last 5 meetings: Cheltenham 0 · 2 draws · Grimsby 3 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-01-24Cheltenham 0-2 Grimsby
2025-09-27Grimsby 7-1 Cheltenham
2025-03-01Cheltenham 1-1 Grimsby
2024-08-17Grimsby 3-2 Cheltenham
2021-04-05Grimsby 1-1 Cheltenham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CheltenhamGrimsby
League position#6 of 24#11 of 24
Record W-D-L2-1-11-3-0
Current streakW1D3
Record, home vs away2-0-00-2-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cheltenham win3.603.51
Draw3.503.92
Grimsby win1.912.17
Over 2.5 goals1.751.81
Under 2.5 goals2.052.23

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cheltenham win3.51
Draw3.93
Grimsby win2.17
Both teams to score1.73

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.05
Cheltenham most3.51
Grimsby most2.17

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.44
Cheltenham most1.98
Grimsby most2.57

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.15
Over 4.5 cards3.62
Over 5.5 cards6.96
Cheltenham most2.51
Grimsby most2.64

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55
Over 7.5 SoT1.93
Over 8.5 SoT2.54
Over 9.5 SoT3.51
Cheltenham most2.68
Grimsby most2.01

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.12
Over 26.5 shots2.85
Over 28.5 shots4.06
Cheltenham most2.04
Grimsby most2.25

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.51
Over 22.5 fouls1.97
Over 24.5 fouls2.80
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.5% Over 7.5 51.7% Over 8.5 39.3% Over 9.5 28.5%
Most: Cheltenham 37.3% Most: Grimsby 49.7%
Cheltenham Over 4.2 31.7% Grimsby Over 4.2 40.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.1% Over 3.5 46.6% Over 4.5 27.6%
Most: Cheltenham 39.8% Most: Grimsby 37.9%
Cheltenham Over 1.8 53.1% Grimsby Over 1.8 51.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cheltenham clean sheet 19.4%
Grimsby clean sheet 28.7%
Cheltenham win to nil 13.2%
Grimsby win to nil 22.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 28.5% draw 25.5% away 46.1%
double_chance
1X 53.9% 12 74.6% X2 71.5%
dnb
home 38.2% away 61.8%
btts
yes 58.0% no 42.1%
clean_sheet
home 19.4% away 28.8%
win_to_nil
home 13.2% away 22.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.3% home_by_2 8.1% home_by_3plus 4.0%
away_by_1 21.7% away_by_2 14.1% away_by_3plus 10.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.2% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 7.5%
0-3 4.1% 0-4 1.7% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 6.4% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.1% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.3% 2-1 7.1% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 3.2% 2-4 1.3% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 1.8% 3-1 2.9% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.8% under_0.5 6.2% over_1.5 78.8%
under_1.5 21.2% over_2.5 55.1% under_2.5 44.9%
over_3.5 32.8% under_3.5 67.2% over_4.5 16.7%
under_4.5 83.3% over_5.5 7.3% under_5.5 92.7%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.4%
under_1.5 64.6% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 86.9%
team_away
over_0.5 80.6% under_0.5 19.4% over_1.5 48.8%
under_1.5 51.2% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.3%
most
home 28.5% draw 25.5% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.0% away_+2.5 96.0% home_-1.5 12.1%
away_+1.5 87.9% home_-0.5 28.5% away_+0.5 71.5%
home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1% home_+1.5 75.6%
away_-1.5 24.4% home_+2.5 89.8% away_-2.5 10.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.2% exact_1 15.0% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.1% exact_5 9.3%
exact_6 4.5% exact_7plus 2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 16.7% draw 36.6% away 46.7%
total
over_0.5 75.0% under_0.5 25.0% over_1.5 40.3%
under_1.5 59.7% over_2.5 16.3% under_2.5 83.7%
btts
yes 21.8% no 78.2%
total_exact
exact_0 25.0% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.1% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.9% draw 35.3% away 29.8%
total
over_0.5 79.9% under_0.5 20.2% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
btts
yes 30.3% no 69.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 12.5% H/D 3.0% H/A 1.3%
D/H 12.8% D/D 12.9% D/A 10.9%
A/H 3.8% A/D 7.9% A/A 34.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.9% under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 64.0%
under_8.5 36.0% over_9.5 52.3% under_9.5 47.7%
over_10.5 40.9% under_10.5 59.1% over_11.5 30.6%
under_11.5 69.4% over_12.5 21.9% under_12.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.5% under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 57.3%
under_4.5 42.7% over_5.5 42.2% under_5.5 57.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.2% under_3.5 34.8% over_4.5 48.6%
under_4.5 51.4% over_5.5 33.6% under_5.5 66.4%
most
home 50.5% draw 10.7% away 38.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.5% away_+3.5 78.6% home_-1.5 39.8%
away_+1.5 60.2% home_-0.5 50.5% away_+0.5 49.5%
home_+0.5 61.1% away_-0.5 38.9% home_+1.5 71.0%
away_-1.5 29.0% home_+3.5 86.2% away_-3.5 13.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.9% under_22.5 40.1% over_24.5 47.2%
under_24.5 52.8% over_26.5 35.1% under_26.5 64.9%
over_28.5 24.6% under_28.5 75.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.7% under_10.5 36.3% over_12.5 45.9%
under_12.5 54.2% over_14.5 29.9% under_14.5 70.1%
team_away
over_10.5 60.6% under_10.5 39.4% over_12.5 42.5%
under_12.5 57.5% over_14.5 26.9% under_14.5 73.1%
most
home 49.1% draw 6.5% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 25.2% away_+4.5 74.8% home_-2.5 36.5%
away_+2.5 63.5% home_-0.5 49.1% away_+0.5 50.9%
home_+0.5 55.5% away_-0.5 44.5% home_+2.5 67.8%
away_-2.5 32.2% home_+4.5 78.4% away_-4.5 21.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.5% under_6.5 35.5% over_7.5 51.7%
under_7.5 48.3% over_8.5 39.3% under_8.5 60.7%
over_9.5 28.4% under_9.5 71.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 48.8% under_3.5 51.2% over_4.5 31.7%
under_4.5 68.3% over_5.5 18.8% under_5.5 81.2%
team_away
over_3.5 57.7% under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 40.4%
under_4.5 59.6% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
most
home 37.3% draw 13.0% away 49.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 16.4% away_+2.5 83.6% home_-0.5 37.3%
away_+0.5 62.7% home_+0.5 50.3% away_-0.5 49.7%
home_+2.5 74.6% away_-2.5 25.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.1% under_2.5 31.9% over_3.5 46.6%
under_3.5 53.4% over_4.5 27.7% under_4.5 72.4%
over_5.5 14.4% under_5.5 85.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.1% under_1.5 46.9% over_2.5 26.3%
under_2.5 73.7%
team_away
over_1.5 51.7% under_1.5 48.3% over_2.5 25.1%
under_2.5 74.9%
most
home 39.8% draw 22.2% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.8% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 39.8%
away_+0.5 60.2% home_+0.5 62.1% away_-0.5 38.0%
home_+1.5 80.5% away_-1.5 19.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 66.2% under_20.5 33.8% over_22.5 50.8%
under_22.5 49.2% over_24.5 35.7% under_24.5 64.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 67.7% under_9.5 32.3% over_11.5 45.7%
under_11.5 54.3% over_13.5 26.1% under_13.5 73.9%
team_away
over_9.5 69.3% under_9.5 30.7% over_11.5 47.5%
under_11.5 52.5% over_13.5 27.6% under_13.5 72.4%
most
home 44.8% draw 7.9% away 47.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.5% home_-0.5 44.8%
away_+0.5 55.2% home_+2.5 67.8% away_-2.5 32.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.2% no 88.9%
home
yes 9.2% no 90.8%
away
yes 2.1% no 97.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cheltenham predictions · Grimsby predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

League TwoCheltenhamGrimsbyTrack record