Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Crystal Palace Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. For context, Chelsea are favoured at 48.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chelsea vs Crystal Palace. Slightly more cards are projected for Crystal Palace for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Chelsea are favoured at 48.0%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Chelsea to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
How many cards in Chelsea vs Crystal Palace?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.9% for Chelsea vs Crystal Palace.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.