Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Brighton Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 51.2% and it landed (32 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 60.6% and it landed (12 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 62.8% for over 22.5 to 29.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Between the two sides, Chelsea are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.1%, with a level count at 5.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.9%
56.9%
41.8%
53.5%
36.8%
23.3%
Shot handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| -2.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| +0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Chelsea.
In-depth analysis
51.2%Over 24.5 shots56.9%Chelsea over 12.5 shots36.8%Brighton over 12.5 shots60.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Chelsea over 12.5 shots sits at 56.9% and Brighton at 36.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Chelsea vs Brighton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.2% for Chelsea vs Brighton.
Which team will have more shots in Chelsea vs Brighton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Chelsea to take more shots at 61.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.