ChampionshipCharlton vs Preston Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.6% for over 22.5 to 28.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on shots, Charlton are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.3%, with a level count at 5.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.8%
57.8%
41.4%
53.8%
35.8%
21.4%
Shot handicap
| Charlton line | Charlton | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| -2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.3% | 37.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.6% | 68.4% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Charlton.
In-depth analysis
51.2%Over 24.5 shots57.8%Charlton over 12.5 shots35.8%Preston over 12.5 shots55.8%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Charlton over 12.5 shots sits at 57.8% and Preston at 35.8%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Charlton vs Preston?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.2% for Charlton vs Preston.
Which team will have more shots in Charlton vs Preston?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charlton to take more shots at 62.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.