Charlton vs Preston: model prediction
ChampionshipCharlton or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Charlton at 43.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 55.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 50.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Charlton versus Preston on 29 August 2026 tilts towards Charlton in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Charlton higher (46%) than our model does. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. • The run in: Charlton arrive W3 D1 L2, Preston W1 D0 L5. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Charlton, 0 draws and 5 for Preston, averaging 2.4 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.022 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
43.0%-3.3%
28.3%+0.2%
28.7%+3.1%
conservative EV -0.022 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Charlton 0 · 0 draws · Preston 5 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.5% | Over 7.5 | 55.8% | Over 8.5 | 43.1% | Over 9.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Charlton | 52.7% | Most: Preston | 34.5% | ||||
| Charlton Over 4.2 | 45.2% | Preston Over 4.2 | 32.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.0% | Over 3.5 | 47.7% | Over 4.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Charlton | 28.1% | Most: Preston | 50.6% | ||
| Charlton Over 1.8 | 44.3% | Preston Over 1.8 | 61.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Charlton clean sheet | 34.2% |
|---|---|
| Preston clean sheet | 25.4% |
| Charlton win to nil | 24.9% |
| Preston win to nil | 16.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 43.0% | draw | 28.3% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.3% | 12 | 71.7% | X2 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 60.0% | away | 40.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.6% | no | 50.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.3% | away | 25.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.9% | away | 16.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.5% | home_by_2 | 13.0% | home_by_3plus | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.4% | away_by_2 | 7.9% | away_by_3plus | 3.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 0-1 | 8.7% | 0-2 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 1-1 | 13.4% | 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 2-1 | 8.8% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 3-1 | 4.0% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.6% | under_0.5 | 9.4% | over_1.5 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.3% | over_2.5 | 44.1% | under_2.5 | 55.9% |
| over_3.5 | 23.0% | under_3.5 | 77.0% | over_4.5 | 10.1% |
| under_4.5 | 89.9% | over_5.5 | 3.8% | under_5.5 | 96.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.6% | under_0.5 | 25.4% | over_1.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.2% | over_2.5 | 15.9% | under_2.5 | 84.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.7% | under_0.5 | 34.3% | over_1.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.0% | over_2.5 | 9.4% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
most
| home | 43.0% | draw | 28.3% | away | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.6% | away_+2.5 | 92.4% | home_-1.5 | 20.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 79.4% | home_-0.5 | 43.0% | away_+0.5 | 57.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.3% | away_-0.5 | 28.7% | home_+1.5 | 88.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.3% | home_+2.5 | 96.7% | away_-2.5 | 3.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.4% | exact_1 | 20.0% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.1% | exact_4 | 12.9% | exact_5 | 6.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.6% | exact_7plus | 1.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.2% | draw | 46.7% | away | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.1% | under_0.5 | 36.9% | over_1.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.7% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.0% |
btts
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 36.9% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.1% | exact_4plus | 1.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.8% | draw | 37.8% | away | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.3% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.3% | over_2.5 | 16.6% | under_2.5 | 83.4% |
btts
| yes | 24.5% | no | 75.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.8% | H/D | 4.1% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.1% | D/D | 17.7% | D/A | 10.9% |
| A/H | 2.8% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 16.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.8% | under_7.5 | 23.2% | over_8.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 34.0% | over_9.5 | 54.2% | under_9.5 | 45.8% |
| over_10.5 | 42.4% | under_10.5 | 57.6% | over_11.5 | 31.7% |
| under_11.5 | 68.3% | over_12.5 | 22.6% | under_12.5 | 77.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.9% | under_3.5 | 21.1% | over_4.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.0% | over_5.5 | 50.1% | under_5.5 | 49.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.8% | under_3.5 | 40.3% | over_4.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.7% | over_5.5 | 27.5% | under_5.5 | 72.5% |
most
| home | 60.0% | draw | 10.1% | away | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.8% | away_+3.5 | 71.2% | home_-1.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 60.0% | away_+0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.2% | away_-0.5 | 29.8% | home_+1.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.1% | home_+3.5 | 91.1% | away_-3.5 | 8.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.6% | under_22.5 | 36.4% | over_24.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.8% | over_26.5 | 39.0% | under_26.5 | 61.0% |
| over_28.5 | 28.0% | under_28.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.8% | under_10.5 | 26.2% | over_12.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.2% | over_14.5 | 41.4% | under_14.5 | 58.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.8% | under_10.5 | 46.2% | over_12.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.3% | over_14.5 | 21.4% | under_14.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 5.9% | away | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.3% | away_+4.5 | 62.7% | home_-2.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.2% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 31.9% | home_+2.5 | 78.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.5% | home_+4.5 | 86.6% | away_-4.5 | 13.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.5% | under_6.5 | 31.5% | over_7.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.2% | over_8.5 | 43.1% | under_8.5 | 56.9% |
| over_9.5 | 31.6% | under_9.5 | 68.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 62.6% | under_3.5 | 37.4% | over_4.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.8% | over_5.5 | 29.9% | under_5.5 | 70.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.8% | under_3.5 | 50.2% | over_4.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.8% | over_5.5 | 18.9% | under_5.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 52.7% | draw | 12.8% | away | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.9% | away_+2.5 | 72.1% | home_-0.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.3% | home_+0.5 | 65.5% | away_-0.5 | 34.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.1% | under_2.5 | 31.0% | over_3.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.3% | over_4.5 | 28.6% | under_4.5 | 71.4% |
| over_5.5 | 15.1% | under_5.5 | 84.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 44.3% | under_1.5 | 55.7% | over_2.5 | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.0% | under_1.5 | 39.0% | over_2.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.1% |
most
| home | 28.2% | draw | 21.3% | away | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.9% | away_+1.5 | 87.1% | home_-0.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.9% | home_+0.5 | 49.4% | away_-0.5 | 50.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.4% | away_-1.5 | 29.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 53.9% | under_20.5 | 46.1% | over_22.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 61.8% | over_24.5 | 24.6% | under_24.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.8% | under_9.5 | 42.2% | over_11.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.6% | over_13.5 | 18.2% | under_13.5 | 81.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.3% | under_9.5 | 37.7% | over_11.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.0% | over_13.5 | 21.7% | under_13.5 | 78.3% |
most
| home | 42.6% | draw | 8.1% | away | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.3% | away_+3.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.4% | home_+2.5 | 66.4% | away_-2.5 | 33.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.8% | no | 89.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 0.5% | no | 99.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.3% | no | 89.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Charlton predictions · Preston predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets