ChampionshipCharlton vs Derby Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.1% for over 2.5 to 17.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the card count, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 21.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.5% | 82.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.5%
23.3%
61.4%
34.4%
Card handicap
| Charlton line | Charlton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| -0.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| +0.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| +1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.5% | 68.5% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | A Kitchen | 5 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| Charlton | D Webb | 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Charlton | J Linington | 3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Derby | G Ward | 4 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| Derby | T Nield | 4 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| Derby | A Backhouse | 3 | 6.7 | 3.3 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
This season (2025/26)
2.1Charlton cards per game12.0Charlton fouls per game2.4Derby cards per game12.4Derby fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Charlton vs Derby. Slightly more cards are projected for Derby for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.3%Over 3.5 cards11.2%Any red card49.5%Charlton over 1.5 cards61.4%Derby over 1.5 cards46.0%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Charlton over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Derby at 61.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.2% (Charlton 0.8%, Derby 10.6%). Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, A Kitchen, has averaged 4.2 cards a game across 5 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Charlton have averaged 2.1 cards a game and Derby 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Charlton vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.3% for Charlton vs Derby.
Will there be a red card in Charlton vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Charlton vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Derby to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.