ChampionshipCharlton vs Derby Corners
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.3% for over 7.5 to 22.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. Head to head on corners, Charlton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 59.5%, with a level count at 10.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.4% | 34.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.1% | 77.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.4%
64.3%
49.3%
59.7%
42.3%
27.4%
Corner handicap
| Charlton line | Charlton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.2% | 71.8% |
| -1.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| -0.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| +0.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
This season (2025/26)
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Charlton.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Charlton over 4.5 corners sits at 64.3% and Derby at 42.3%. This season Charlton have averaged 4.1 corners won a game and Derby 4.6.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Charlton vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 53.5% for Charlton vs Derby.
Which team will win the corner count in Charlton vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charlton to win the corner count at 59.5%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Charlton and Derby average this season?
Charlton have won 4.1 corners a game this season and Derby 4.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.