Pro League
Charleroi vs 
St. Gilloise Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 52.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 82.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 18.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. Head to head on cards, St. Gilloise are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.2%, with a level count at 20.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.6% | 81.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.1%
25.0%
60.7%
34.1%
Card handicap
| Charleroi line | Charleroi | St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +1.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.5% | 42.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.5% | 70.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Charleroi vs St. Gilloise. It tips St. Gilloise for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.2%Over 3.5 cards17.8%Any red card51.1%Charleroi over 1.5 cards60.7%St. Gilloise over 1.5 cards42.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Charleroi over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and St. Gilloise at 60.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.8% (Charleroi 12.3%, St. Gilloise 6.3%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Charleroi vs St. Gilloise?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.2% for Charleroi vs St. Gilloise.
Will there be a red card in Charleroi vs St. Gilloise?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Charleroi vs St. Gilloise?
Before kickoff, the model rated St. Gilloise to pick up more cards at 46.2%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.