Süper LigÇaykur Rizespor vs 
Fenerbahce Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 56.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.8% for over 22.5 to 33.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.2%. Between the two sides, Çaykur Rizespor are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.9%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.7%
56.8%
40.8%
61.6%
44.1%
28.8%
Shot handicap
| Çaykur Rizespor line | Çaykur Rizespor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| -2.5 | 43.8% | 56.3% |
| -0.5 | 55.9% | 44.2% |
| +0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
17.2Fenerbahce shots per game11.6Fenerbahce shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Çaykur Rizespor.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
56.1%Over 24.5 shots56.8%Çaykur Rizespor over 12.5 shots44.1%Fenerbahce over 12.5 shots64.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Çaykur Rizespor over 12.5 shots sits at 56.8% and Fenerbahce at 44.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.1% for Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce.
Which team will have more shots in Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?
The model rates Çaykur Rizespor to take more shots at 55.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
