Süper LigÇaykur Rizespor vs 
Fenerbahce Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Draw or Away at 81.8%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Fenerbahce are favoured at 60.4%, so game state could swing this market. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Çaykur Rizespor by 1 | 11.4% |
| Çaykur Rizespor by 2 | 4.8% |
| Çaykur Rizespor by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Fenerbahce by 1 | 22.7% |
| Fenerbahce by 2 | 18.4% |
| Fenerbahce by 3+ | 19.2% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
Goal handicap
| Çaykur Rizespor line | Çaykur Rizespor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| +0.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| +1.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +2.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Fenerbahce goals scored per game1.2Fenerbahce goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is draw or Fenerbahce on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.2%Both Teams to Score61.4%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Fenerbahce are favoured at 60.4%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?
Draw or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce at 81.8%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Çaykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Çaykur Rizespor at 23.1% and Fenerbahce at 76.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
