Segunda División
Cadiz vs 
Las Palmas Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.0% for over 22.5 to 25.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. On the shot count, Cadiz are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.9%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.7% | 74.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.4%
55.5%
38.6%
53.8%
35.3%
20.6%
Shot handicap
| Cadiz line | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| -2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| -0.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| +0.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.5% | 53.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.1% | 65.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Cadiz.
In-depth analysis
49.1%Over 24.5 shots55.5%Cadiz over 12.5 shots35.3%Las Palmas over 12.5 shots59.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Cadiz over 12.5 shots sits at 55.5% and Las Palmas at 35.3%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 49.1% for Cadiz vs Las Palmas.
Which team will have more shots in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model rates Cadiz to take more shots at 60.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.