Segunda DivisiónBurgos vs Ceuta Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 58.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Burgos have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Ceuta 0.4 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.0% for over 2.5 and 68.9% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 1.5 goals a game. Burgos have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Ceuta in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 78.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 9.1% | 90.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.4% | 96.7% |
Team goal lines
79.7%
47.4%
21.7%
53.3%
17.8%
4.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.2% | 85.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 67.5% | 32.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
43.1%Both Teams to Score42.0%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 42.0% for three or more goals and 68.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Burgos favoured at 56.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Burgos to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burgos 0 · 1 draws · Ceuta 1 · 1.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burgos vs Ceuta?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 42.0% for Burgos vs Ceuta.
Will there be a first-half goal in Burgos vs Ceuta?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.7%.
How often have Burgos gone over 2.5 recently?
Burgos have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Ceuta in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.