Segunda DivisiónAndorra vs Sociedad B Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Andorra have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Sociedad B 1.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.2% for over 2.5 and 78.9% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Andorra have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Sociedad B in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.9% | 6.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.3% | 92.7% |
Team goal lines
83.6%
53.9%
27.1%
66.2%
29.5%
9.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 67.3% | 32.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.3% | 89.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.5% | 73.5% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
55.8%Both Teams to Score55.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 55.2% for three or more goals and 78.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Andorra favoured at 53.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Andorra to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Andorra 0 · 0 draws · Sociedad B 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Andorra vs Sociedad B?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 55.2% for Andorra vs Sociedad B.
Will there be a first-half goal in Andorra vs Sociedad B?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 67.3%.
How often have Andorra gone over 2.5 recently?
Andorra have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Sociedad B in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.