Segunda DivisiónBurgos vs Ceuta Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Both teams to score · No at 56.9%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Burgos have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Ceuta 0.4 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.0% for over 2.5 and 68.9% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 1.5 goals a game. Burgos have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Ceuta in 1 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
1.2
1.0
0.4
2.4
Each team to score
By half
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
43.1%Both Teams to Score42.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 42.0% for three or more goals and 68.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Burgos favoured at 56.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Burgos to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burgos 0 · 1 draws · Ceuta 1 · 1.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Burgos vs Ceuta?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 43.1% for Burgos vs Ceuta.
Will Burgos score against Ceuta?
The model rates Burgos to score at 79.7% and Ceuta to score at 53.3%.
How often have Burgos seen both teams score recently?
Burgos have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Ceuta in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,236 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.