Pro League
Beveren vs 
St Truiden Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 59.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 70.4% for over 22.5 to 36.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. On the shot count, Beveren are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.7%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.2% | 63.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.2%
61.5%
45.9%
60.8%
43.5%
28.4%
Shot handicap
| Beveren line | Beveren | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| -2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| -0.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| +0.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 44.0% | 56.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.4Beveren shots per game15.6Beveren shots faced per game18.6St Truiden shots per game14.8St Truiden shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Beveren.
In-depth analysis
59.2%Over 24.5 shots61.5%Beveren over 12.5 shots43.5%St Truiden over 12.5 shots67.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Beveren over 12.5 shots sits at 61.5% and St Truiden at 43.5%. This season Beveren have averaged 11.4 shots a game and St Truiden 18.6.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Beveren vs St Truiden?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 59.2% for Beveren vs St Truiden.
Which team will have more shots in Beveren vs St Truiden?
The model rates Beveren to take more shots at 59.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.