Pro League
Beveren vs 
Lommel SK Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 61.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.0% for over 22.5 to 37.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. Between the two sides, Beveren are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.4%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 37.9% | 62.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.6%
64.5%
49.1%
60.1%
42.8%
27.8%
Shot handicap
| Beveren line | Beveren | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.1% | 61.0% |
| -2.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| +0.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.7Beveren shots per game15.6Beveren shots faced per game10.0Lommel SK shots per game21.0Lommel SK shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Beveren.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
61.0%Over 24.5 shots64.5%Beveren over 12.5 shots42.8%Lommel SK over 12.5 shots64.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Beveren over 12.5 shots sits at 64.5% and Lommel SK at 42.8%. This season Beveren have averaged 10.7 shots a game and Lommel SK 10.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 61.0% for Beveren vs Lommel SK.
Which team will have more shots in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The model rates Beveren to take more shots at 62.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,773 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
