Pro League
Beveren vs 
Lommel SK Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 73.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Beveren are favoured at 42.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Beveren by 1 | 21.6% |
| Beveren by 2 | 13.0% |
| Beveren by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Lommel SK by 1 | 17.5% |
| Lommel SK by 2 | 8.6% |
| Lommel SK by 3+ | 4.1% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
Goal handicap
| Beveren line | Beveren | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| -0.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| +0.5 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| +1.5 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Beveren goals scored per game1.6Beveren goals conceded per game0.9Lommel SK goals scored per game1.1Lommel SK goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Beveren or Lommel SK on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
54.6%Both Teams to Score50.1%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Beveren are favoured at 42.9%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Beveren vs Lommel SK at 73.1%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Beveren at 58.7% and Lommel SK at 41.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
