Pro League
Beveren vs 
Anderlecht Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 60.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.2% for over 22.5 to 37.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Between the two sides, Beveren are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.9%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.1% | 40.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.8%
64.9%
49.6%
58.2%
40.8%
26.1%
Shot handicap
| Beveren line | Beveren | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| -2.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| +0.5 | 69.4% | 30.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.2% | 42.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.5% | 54.5% |
This season (2026/27)
11.0Beveren shots per game32.0Anderlecht shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Beveren.
In-depth analysis
60.1%Over 24.5 shots64.9%Beveren over 12.5 shots40.8%Anderlecht over 12.5 shots68.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Beveren over 12.5 shots sits at 64.9% and Anderlecht at 40.8%. This season Beveren have averaged 11.0 shots a game and Anderlecht 32.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 60.1% for Beveren vs Anderlecht.
Which team will have more shots in Beveren vs Anderlecht?
Before kickoff, the model rated Beveren to take more shots at 63.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.