Pro League
Beveren vs 
Anderlecht Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 56.0% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 55.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Beveren have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, Anderlecht 1.8 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.9% for over 2.5 and 79.5% for at least two goals. Beveren have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 1, Anderlecht in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 44.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.6% | 92.4% |
Team goal lines
72.8%
37.4%
14.3%
80.3%
48.2%
22.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.9% | 76.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Beveren goals scored per game2.0Beveren goals conceded per game100.0%Beveren Over 2.5 rate1.0Beveren 1st-half goals per game2.0Anderlecht goals scored per game1.0Anderlecht goals conceded per game100.0%Anderlecht Over 2.5 rate0.0Anderlecht 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
59.0%Both Teams to Score55.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 55.9% for three or more goals and 79.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Anderlecht favoured at 44.4%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Anderlecht to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Beveren vs Anderlecht?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 55.9%. The match finished with 1 goals (1-0), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.