Eredivisie
Cambuur vs 
Nijmegen Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.1% for over 7.5 to 24.9% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Head to head on corners, Cambuur are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.3%, with a level count at 9.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.2% | 65.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.9% | 75.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.0%
58.4%
43.8%
67.6%
51.9%
37.3%
Corner handicap
| Cambuur line | Cambuur | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| -0.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| +0.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| +1.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
This season (2026/27)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Cambuur.
In-depth analysis
By team, Cambuur over 4.5 corners sits at 58.4% and Nijmegen at 51.9%. This season Cambuur have averaged 3.8 corners won a game and Nijmegen 5.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Cambuur vs Nijmegen?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.4% for Cambuur vs Nijmegen.
Which team will win the corner count in Cambuur vs Nijmegen?
The model rates Cambuur to win the corner count at 49.3%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Cambuur and Nijmegen average this season?
Cambuur have won 3.8 corners a game this season and Nijmegen 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.