Super League Greece
Atromitos vs 
Kifisia Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 40.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 52.1% for over 22.5 to 21.4% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. On the shot count, Atromitos are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.3%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 40.7% | 59.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.3% | 69.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
65.0%
49.6%
35.2%
45.1%
29.5%
17.8%
Shot handicap
| Atromitos line | Atromitos | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| -2.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| -0.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| +0.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.9% | 68.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Atromitos.
In-depth analysis
40.7%Over 24.5 shots49.6%Atromitos over 12.5 shots29.5%Kifisia over 12.5 shots54.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Atromitos over 12.5 shots sits at 49.6% and Kifisia at 29.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Atromitos vs Kifisia?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 40.7% for Atromitos vs Kifisia.
Which team will have more shots in Atromitos vs Kifisia?
The model rates Atromitos to take more shots at 61.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
