Result

Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Expected Goals (xG)

2.20Ath Madrid xG created/game

1.54Ath Madrid xG conceded/game

1.72Villarreal xG created/game

1.47Villarreal xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Ath Madrid have created 2.20 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Villarreal have created 1.72 xG and scored 2.50 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

50.7%Favoured: Ath Madrid

60.2%Both Teams to Score

58.9%Over 2.5 goals

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

Match outlook

The model leans Ath Madrid to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 2 · 2 draws · Villarreal 1 · 3.4 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)

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