Primeira Liga
Alverca vs 
Santa Clara Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 70.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.9% for over 2.5 to 35.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Head to head on cards, Santa Clara are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.8%
41.4%
70.9%
45.2%
Card handicap
| Alverca line | Alverca | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| -0.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| +0.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.7% | 13.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 66.5% | 33.5% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alverca vs Santa Clara. The model leans toward Santa Clara for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
70.9%Over 3.5 cards16.7%Any red card67.8%Alverca over 1.5 cards70.9%Santa Clara over 1.5 cards77.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Alverca over 1.5 cards sits at 67.8% and Santa Clara at 70.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.7% (Alverca 11.4%, Santa Clara 6.0%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 70.9% for Alverca vs Santa Clara.
Will there be a red card in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Before kickoff, the model rated Santa Clara to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.