Alaves vs Villarreal: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 28 Aug 2026

La Liga

Alaves

WWLWD

Full time1-0Fri, 28 Aug 202620:30UK22°C · Clearing

Villarreal

LLWDD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Alaves or draw

60%

Draw or Villarreal

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Alaves 1-0 Villarreal

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Alaves at 39.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.1% and it missed (1 goals). We called Yes at 58.0% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

AlavesWin probability

39.6%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.28

Alaves or draw65.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Draw or Villarreal60.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

Alaves versus Villarreal in the La Liga on 28 August 2026 is finely balanced. Alaves edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Alaves than the market (30%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Fatigue may matter, with Villarreal 3 days shorter on recovery than Alaves. The recent series reads 1 wins for Alaves, 2 draws and 2 for Villarreal over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Tomás Conechny drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Alaves W3 D2 L1, Villarreal W1 D3 L2. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.0%@ 2.63

Villarreal win34.8%@ 2.87

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.0%@ 1.69

Both teams to score58.0%@ 1.72

Over 2.5 goals54.1%@ 1.85

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.14

2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.60

1-0 correct score8.0%@ 12.44

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alaves

39.6%+10.1%

Draw

25.6%-1.3%

Villarreal

34.8%-8.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.2%

High probability

Over 2.554.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.0%

Good chance

Over 9.548.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.9%

Low chance

Most cornersAlaves59.0%Villarreal30.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.1%

Good chance

Over 24.546.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.2%2.554.1%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AlavesWWLWD

VillarrealLLWDD

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Villarreal 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-03-13Alaves 1-1 Villarreal

2026-01-10Villarreal 3-1 Alaves

2025-03-08Alaves 1-0 Villarreal

2024-11-09Villarreal 3-0 Alaves

2024-02-10Alaves 1-1 Villarreal

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Alaves

Villarreal

League position#5 of 20#10 of 20

Record W-D-L1-1-00-2-0

Current streakD1D2

Record, home vs away1-0-00-2-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Tomás ConechnyAlaves · key player

To score4.9%

@ 20.41

1+ on target39.4%

@ 2.54

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.13

Georges MikautadzeVillarreal · key player

To score32.4%

@ 3.09

1+ on target60.8%

@ 1.64

2+ shots59.5%

@ 1.68

Shots/90 2.76SoT/90 1.29Goals/90 0.54

Antonio MartínezAlaves · in form

To score24.4%

@ 4.10

1+ on target53.6%

@ 1.87

2+ shots62.3%

@ 1.61

Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.44

Ayoze PérezVillarreal · in form

To score35.1%

@ 2.85

1+ on target53.9%

@ 1.86

2+ shots54.7%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.67

Kike GarcíaAlaves · in form

To score30.5%

@ 3.28

1+ on target54.4%

@ 1.84

2+ shots53.4%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.45

Gerard MorenoVillarreal · in form

To score29.5%

@ 3.39

1+ on target49.1%

@ 2.04

2+ shots48.2%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.6

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Alaves win3.202.53

Draw3.503.91

Villarreal win2.202.87

Over 2.5 goals1.801.85

Under 2.5 goals2.002.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alaves win2.55

Draw3.83

Villarreal win2.89

Both teams to score1.73

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.28

Over 2.5 goals1.85

Over 3.5 goals3.14

Alaves most2.55

Villarreal most2.89

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37

Over 8.5 corners1.63

Over 9.5 corners2.03

Over 10.5 corners2.66

Alaves most1.69

Villarreal most3.27

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20

Over 3.5 cards1.50

Over 4.5 cards2.06

Over 5.5 cards3.16

Alaves most2.59

Villarreal most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.41

Over 7.5 SoT1.72

Over 8.5 SoT2.22

Over 9.5 SoT3.01

Alaves most1.76

Villarreal most3.25

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69

Over 24.5 shots2.16

Over 26.5 shots2.91

Over 28.5 shots4.19

Alaves most1.50

Villarreal most3.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21

Over 22.5 fouls1.39

Over 24.5 fouls1.70

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	70.7%	Over 7.5	58.0%	Over 8.5	45.1%	Over 9.5	33.2%
Most: Alaves	56.7%	Most: Villarreal	30.7%
Alaves Over 4.2	49.4%	Villarreal Over 4.2	30.6%

Cards

Over 2.5	83.1%	Over 3.5	66.8%	Over 4.5	48.5%
Most: Alaves	38.7%	Most: Villarreal	42.5%
Alaves Over 1.8	65.0%	Villarreal Over 1.8	67.4%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Tomás Conechny	2.57	1.29	0.13	39.4%	26.4%	4.9%
Antonio Martínez	3.32	1.21	0.44	53.6%	62.3%	24.4%
Kike García	2.21	0.97	0.45	54.4%	53.4%	30.5%
Lucas Boyé	2.89	0.92	0.51	49.9%	63.8%	31.8%
Carlos Martín	1.75	0.81	0.13	38.2%	27.9%	7.4%

Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Georges Mikautadze	2.76	1.29	0.54	60.8%	59.5%	32.4%
Ayoze Pérez	2.84	1.2	0.67	53.9%	54.7%	35.1%
Gerard Moreno	2.78	1.16	0.6	49.1%	48.2%	29.5%
Nicolas Pepe	2.28	0.98	0.28	49.3%	46.8%	17.6%
Thierno Barry	2.81	0.95	0.4	51.7%	63.4%	26.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Alaves clean sheet	25.5%
Villarreal clean sheet	22.8%
Alaves win to nil	19.0%
Villarreal win to nil	16.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	39.3%	draw	26.1%	away	34.6%

double_chance

1X	65.4%	12	73.9%	X2	60.7%

dnb

home	53.2%	away	46.8%

btts

yes	58.0%	no	42.1%

clean_sheet

home	25.6%	away	22.9%

win_to_nil

home	19.1%	away	16.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.1%	home_by_2	11.8%	home_by_3plus	7.4%
away_by_1	18.6%	away_by_2	10.2%	away_by_3plus	5.8%

correct_score

0-0	6.4%	0-1	7.4%	0-2	5.4%
0-3	2.5%	0-4	0.9%	0-5	0.3%
1-0	8.0%	1-1	12.3%	1-2	8.0%
1-3	3.7%	1-4	1.3%	1-5	0.4%
2-0	6.4%	2-1	8.6%	2-2	5.9%
2-3	2.7%	2-4	0.9%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	3.1%	3-1	4.2%	3-2	2.9%
3-3	1.3%	3-4	0.5%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.2%	4-1	1.6%	4-2	1.1%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.5%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.6%	under_0.5	6.4%	over_1.5	78.2%
under_1.5	21.8%	over_2.5	54.1%	under_2.5	45.9%
over_3.5	31.8%	under_3.5	68.2%	over_4.5	16.0%
under_4.5	84.0%	over_5.5	7.0%	under_5.5	93.0%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	77.1%	under_0.5	22.9%	over_1.5	43.3%
under_1.5	56.7%	over_2.5	18.5%	under_2.5	81.5%

team_away

over_0.5	74.4%	under_0.5	25.6%	over_1.5	39.8%
under_1.5	60.2%	over_2.5	16.1%	under_2.5	83.9%

most

home	39.3%	draw	26.1%	away	34.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	7.4%	away_+2.5	92.7%	home_-1.5	19.2%
away_+1.5	80.8%	home_-0.5	39.3%	away_+0.5	60.7%
home_+0.5	65.4%	away_-0.5	34.6%	home_+1.5	84.0%
away_-1.5	16.0%	home_+2.5	94.2%	away_-2.5	5.8%

total_exact

exact_0	6.4%	exact_1	15.4%	exact_2	24.1%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	15.8%	exact_5	9.0%
exact_6	4.3%	exact_7plus	2.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	28.8%	draw	40.1%	away	31.1%

total

over_0.5	72.7%	under_0.5	27.3%	over_1.5	37.2%
under_1.5	62.8%	over_2.5	14.2%	under_2.5	85.8%

btts

yes	22.8%	no	77.2%

total_exact

exact_0	27.3%	exact_1	35.4%	exact_2	23.0%
exact_3	10.0%	exact_4plus	4.3%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	32.8%	draw	34.5%	away	32.7%

total

over_0.5	81.0%	under_0.5	19.0%	over_1.5	49.5%
under_1.5	50.5%	over_2.5	23.3%	under_2.5	76.7%

btts

yes	31.9%	no	68.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	21.2%	H/D	5.1%	H/A	2.5%
D/H	13.2%	D/D	13.8%	D/A	13.1%
A/H	2.6%	A/D	5.5%	A/A	23.0%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.1%	under_7.5	26.9%	over_8.5	61.5%
under_8.5	38.5%	over_9.5	49.3%	under_9.5	50.7%
over_10.5	37.6%	under_10.5	62.4%	over_11.5	27.3%
under_11.5	72.7%	over_12.5	18.9%	under_12.5	81.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	76.1%	under_3.5	23.9%	over_4.5	61.5%
under_4.5	38.5%	over_5.5	46.3%	under_5.5	53.7%

team_away

over_3.5	57.0%	under_3.5	43.1%	over_4.5	39.5%
under_4.5	60.5%	over_5.5	25.2%	under_5.5	74.8%

most

home	59.2%	draw	10.3%	away	30.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.7%	away_+3.5	72.3%	home_-1.5	48.2%
away_+1.5	51.8%	home_-0.5	59.2%	away_+0.5	40.8%
home_+0.5	69.5%	away_-0.5	30.5%	home_+1.5	78.4%
away_-1.5	21.6%	home_+3.5	90.9%	away_-3.5	9.1%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	59.1%	under_22.5	40.9%	over_24.5	46.3%
under_24.5	53.7%	over_26.5	34.3%	under_26.5	65.7%
over_28.5	23.9%	under_28.5	76.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	73.6%	under_10.5	26.4%	over_12.5	57.4%
under_12.5	42.6%	over_14.5	41.0%	under_14.5	59.0%

team_away

over_10.5	46.9%	under_10.5	53.1%	over_12.5	29.3%
under_12.5	70.7%	over_14.5	16.3%	under_14.5	83.7%

most

home	66.5%	draw	5.7%	away	27.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	41.2%	away_+4.5	58.8%	home_-2.5	54.0%
away_+2.5	46.0%	home_-0.5	66.5%	away_+0.5	33.5%
home_+0.5	72.2%	away_-0.5	27.8%	home_+2.5	82.0%
away_-2.5	18.0%	home_+4.5	89.2%	away_-4.5	10.8%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	70.7%	under_6.5	29.3%	over_7.5	58.0%
under_7.5	42.0%	over_8.5	45.1%	under_8.5	54.9%
over_9.5	33.2%	under_9.5	66.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	66.8%	under_3.5	33.3%	over_4.5	49.4%
under_4.5	50.6%	over_5.5	33.5%	under_5.5	66.6%

team_away

over_3.5	48.6%	under_3.5	51.4%	over_4.5	30.6%
under_4.5	69.4%	over_5.5	17.4%	under_5.5	82.6%

most

home	56.7%	draw	12.5%	away	30.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	31.2%	away_+2.5	68.8%	home_-0.5	56.7%
away_+0.5	43.3%	home_+0.5	69.3%	away_-0.5	30.7%
home_+2.5	87.9%	away_-2.5	12.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	83.1%	under_2.5	16.9%	over_3.5	66.8%
under_3.5	33.2%	over_4.5	48.5%	under_4.5	51.5%
over_5.5	31.7%	under_5.5	68.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	65.0%	under_1.5	35.0%	over_2.5	38.8%
under_2.5	61.2%

team_away

over_1.5	67.4%	under_1.5	32.6%	over_2.5	41.7%
under_2.5	58.4%

most

home	38.7%	draw	18.8%	away	42.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	22.4%	away_+1.5	77.6%	home_-0.5	38.7%
away_+0.5	61.3%	home_+0.5	57.5%	away_-0.5	42.5%
home_+1.5	74.6%	away_-1.5	25.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	82.7%	under_20.5	17.3%	over_22.5	71.9%
under_22.5	28.2%	over_24.5	59.0%	under_24.5	41.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	81.8%	under_9.5	18.2%	over_11.5	65.2%
under_11.5	34.8%	over_13.5	46.4%	under_13.5	53.6%

team_away

over_9.5	77.5%	under_9.5	22.5%	over_11.5	59.2%
under_11.5	40.8%	over_13.5	40.0%	under_13.5	60.0%

most

home	51.1%	draw	6.8%	away	42.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.3%	away_+3.5	68.7%	home_-0.5	51.1%
away_+0.5	48.9%	home_+2.5	70.6%	away_-2.5	29.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.5%	no	81.5%

home

yes	10.1%	no	89.9%

away

yes	9.3%	no	90.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alaves predictions · Villarreal predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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