Toulouse vs Lille prediction & probabilities (2026-09-03)

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Toulouse vs Lille: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 2 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Toulouse

WWDLD

Full time0-1Thu, 3 Sep 202619:45UK
Lille

DWLWD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Lille

61%

Toulouse or draw

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Toulouse 0-1 Lille
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lille at 39.3%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 55.3% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 71.2% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 76.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 50.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 64.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 52.7% and it landed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 56.5% and it missed (1 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.6% and it missed (34 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 59.0% and it landed (16 shots on target). We called No at 80.0% and it landed.

Match data Toulouse Lille
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 24 10
Shots, 1st half 16 6
Shots, 2nd half 8 4
Shots on target 10 6
Corners 6 2
Yellow cards 1 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 9
Expected goals (xG) 2.97 1.04

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LilleWin probability
39.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Draw or Lille68.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Toulouse or draw60.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Toulouse and Lille on 3 September 2026: Lille nose ahead at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Lille higher (44%) than our model does. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 45% with both teams to score at 51%. • Zakaria Aboukhlal drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Toulouse, 0 draws and 4 for Lille at 3.4 goals per match. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for Toulouse against W3 D2 L1 for Lille. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.027 <= 0).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.5%@ 2.15
Over 2.5 goals44.7%@ 2.24
Lille win39.3%@ 2.54
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners57.4%@ 1.74
Under 2.5 goals55.3%@ 1.81
Both teams to score50.6%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.40
0-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.64
1-0 correct score9.3%@ 10.74

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Toulouse

31.7%+3.5%

Draw

29.0%+0.8%

Lille

39.3%-4.3%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.027 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.4%

Good chance

Over 9.546.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.3%

Low chance

Most cornersToulouse53.0%Lille35.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.2%2.544.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ToulouseWWDLD
LilleDWLWD

Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 1 · 0 draws · Lille 4 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-04-12Toulouse 0-4 Lille
2025-09-14Lille 2-1 Toulouse
2025-04-12Toulouse 1-2 Lille
2024-10-05Lille 2-1 Toulouse
2024-02-25Toulouse 3-1 Lille

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ToulouseLille
League position#16 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-11-1-0
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Zakaria AboukhlalToulouse · key player
To score26.0%

@ 3.85

1+ on target64.8%

@ 1.54

2+ shots70.8%

@ 1.41

Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.37
Chuba AkpomLille · key player
To score19.4%

@ 5.15

1+ on target54.3%

@ 1.84

2+ shots41.7%

@ 2.40

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.43
EmersonnToulouse · in form
To score23.1%

@ 4.33

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots56.4%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.42
Ethan MbappéLille · in form
To score10.8%

@ 9.26

1+ on target32.0%

@ 3.13

2+ shots20.8%

@ 4.81

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.38Goals/90 0.41
Joshua KingToulouse · in form
To score19.8%

@ 5.05

1+ on target52.2%

@ 1.92

2+ shots54.1%

@ 1.85

Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.32
Jonathan Christian DavidLille · in form
To score40.4%

@ 2.48

1+ on target69.1%

@ 1.45

2+ shots70.3%

@ 1.42

Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.56

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Toulouse win3.253.16
Draw3.253.45
Lille win2.152.54
Over 2.5 goals2.002.24
Under 2.5 goals1.801.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Toulouse win3.05
Draw3.52
Lille win2.58
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.41
Over 2.5 goals2.24
Over 3.5 goals4.26
Toulouse most3.05
Lille most2.58

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.11
Over 10.5 corners2.80
Toulouse most1.88
Lille most2.78

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.77
Over 4.5 cards2.70
Over 5.5 cards4.68
Toulouse most2.90
Lille most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.16
Over 9.5 SoT2.90
Toulouse most2.16
Lille most2.46

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.64
Over 24.5 shots2.07
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.92
Toulouse most1.70
Lille most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.61
Over 24.5 fouls2.09
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.4% Over 7.5 59.0% Over 8.5 46.3% Over 9.5 34.5%
Most: Toulouse 46.4% Most: Lille 40.7%
Toulouse Over 4.2 43.0% Lille Over 4.2 39.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.1% Over 3.5 56.5% Over 4.5 37.0%
Most: Toulouse 34.4% Most: Lille 45.0%
Toulouse Over 1.8 55.5% Lille Over 1.8 62.9%

Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Zakaria Aboukhlal 3.04 1.28 0.37 64.8% 70.8% 26.0%
Emersonn 3.03 1.13 0.42 50.6% 56.4% 23.1%
Joshua King 2.63 1.07 0.32 52.2% 54.1% 19.8%
Frank Magri 2.5 0.99 0.34 47.4% 48.2% 19.8%
Pape Diop 2.2 0.83 0.08 51.8% 57.6% 6.8%

Lille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Chuba Akpom 2.84 1.56 0.43 54.3% 41.7% 19.4%
Ethan Mbappé 3.03 1.38 0.41 32.0% 20.8% 10.8%
Jonathan Christian David 2.65 1.27 0.56 69.1% 70.3% 40.4%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo 2.36 1.09 0.31 56.1% 53.2% 20.9%
Olivier Giroud 2.29 0.89 0.39 41.2% 39.6% 20.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Toulouse clean sheet 27.4%
Lille clean sheet 31.0%
Toulouse win to nil 18.2%
Lille win to nil 21.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.8% draw 28.4% away 38.8%
double_chance
1X 61.2% 12 71.6% X2 67.2%
dnb
home 45.8% away 54.2%
btts
yes 50.6% no 49.4%
clean_sheet
home 27.4% away 31.1%
win_to_nil
home 18.3% away 21.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.0% home_by_2 9.4% home_by_3plus 4.4%
away_by_1 21.1% away_by_2 11.5% away_by_3plus 6.2%
correct_score
0-0 9.2% 0-1 10.4% 0-2 7.1%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 8.3%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 2.9% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.9% under_0.5 9.2% over_1.5 71.2%
under_1.5 28.8% over_2.5 44.7% under_2.5 55.3%
over_3.5 23.5% under_3.5 76.5% over_4.5 10.4%
under_4.5 89.6% over_5.5 4.0% under_5.5 96.0%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 68.9% under_0.5 31.1% over_1.5 32.6%
under_1.5 67.4% over_2.5 11.4% under_2.5 88.6%
team_away
over_0.5 72.6% under_0.5 27.4% over_1.5 37.2%
under_1.5 62.8% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
most
home 32.8% draw 28.4% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.4% away_+2.5 95.6% home_-1.5 13.8%
away_+1.5 86.2% home_-0.5 32.8% away_+0.5 67.2%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+1.5 82.3%
away_-1.5 17.7% home_+2.5 93.8% away_-2.5 6.2%
total_exact
exact_0 9.2% exact_1 19.7% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.2% exact_4 13.1% exact_5 6.4%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.6% draw 45.8% away 31.6%
total
over_0.5 64.0% under_0.5 36.0% over_1.5 27.2%
under_1.5 72.8% over_2.5 8.4% under_2.5 91.6%
btts
yes 15.7% no 84.3%
total_exact
exact_0 36.0% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.8%
exact_3 6.4% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.2% draw 37.5% away 33.4%
total
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 17.9% under_2.5 82.1%
btts
yes 26.6% no 73.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.1% H/D 4.5% H/A 2.0%
D/H 13.4% D/D 17.2% D/A 15.3%
A/H 2.1% A/D 5.4% A/A 24.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.4% under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 59.6%
under_8.5 40.4% over_9.5 47.3% under_9.5 52.7%
over_10.5 35.8% under_10.5 64.2% over_11.5 25.7%
under_11.5 74.3% over_12.5 17.6% under_12.5 82.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.1%
under_4.5 43.9% over_5.5 40.8% under_5.5 59.2%
team_away
over_3.5 60.3% under_3.5 39.7% over_4.5 43.1%
under_4.5 56.9% over_5.5 28.3% under_5.5 71.7%
most
home 53.2% draw 10.9% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.7% away_+3.5 77.3% home_-1.5 42.1%
away_+1.5 57.9% home_-0.5 53.2% away_+0.5 46.9%
home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0% home_+1.5 73.8%
away_-1.5 26.2% home_+3.5 88.3% away_-3.5 11.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.1% under_22.5 38.9% over_24.5 48.4%
under_24.5 51.6% over_26.5 36.2% under_26.5 63.8%
over_28.5 25.5% under_28.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.6% under_10.5 29.5% over_12.5 53.6%
under_12.5 46.4% over_14.5 37.1% under_14.5 62.9%
team_away
over_10.5 54.5% under_10.5 45.5% over_12.5 36.2%
under_12.5 63.8% over_14.5 21.6% under_14.5 78.4%
most
home 59.0% draw 6.2% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.7% away_+4.5 66.3% home_-2.5 46.2%
away_+2.5 53.8% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.0%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 76.2%
away_-2.5 23.8% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.4% under_6.5 28.6% over_7.5 59.0%
under_7.5 41.0% over_8.5 46.3% under_8.5 53.7%
over_9.5 34.5% under_9.5 65.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 43.0%
under_4.5 57.0% over_5.5 27.9% under_5.5 72.1%
team_away
over_3.5 56.9% under_3.5 43.1% over_4.5 39.0%
under_4.5 61.0% over_5.5 24.3% under_5.5 75.7%
most
home 46.4% draw 12.9% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.1% away_+2.5 76.9% home_-0.5 46.4%
away_+0.5 53.6% home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7%
home_+2.5 81.1% away_-2.5 18.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.1% under_2.5 23.9% over_3.5 56.5%
under_3.5 43.5% over_4.5 37.0% under_4.5 63.0%
over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.5% under_1.5 44.5% over_2.5 28.5%
under_2.5 71.5%
team_away
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 36.0%
under_2.5 64.0%
most
home 34.4% draw 20.5% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.9% away_+1.5 82.1% home_-0.5 34.4%
away_+0.5 65.6% home_+0.5 55.0% away_-0.5 45.0%
home_+1.5 74.0% away_-1.5 26.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.1% under_20.5 25.0% over_22.5 62.0%
under_22.5 38.0% over_24.5 47.9% under_24.5 52.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.2% under_9.5 19.8% over_11.5 62.8%
under_11.5 37.2% over_13.5 43.7% under_13.5 56.3%
team_away
over_9.5 66.7% under_9.5 33.3% over_11.5 45.8%
under_11.5 54.2% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
most
home 58.6% draw 6.8% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 37.4% away_+3.5 62.6% home_-0.5 58.6%
away_+0.5 41.4% home_+2.5 77.5% away_-2.5 22.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.0% no 80.0%
home
yes 12.9% no 87.1%
away
yes 8.1% no 91.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Toulouse predictions · Lille predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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