Paris SG vs Rennes prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)

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Paris SG vs Rennes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Paris SG

WDWWL

Sun, 23 Aug 202619:45UK23°C · Cloudy
Rennes

WWLWL

Model’s top convictions

88%

Paris SG or draw

86%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.71, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris SGWin probability
70.8%
Top 3 convictions

Paris SG or draw88.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Over 1.5 goals86.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Over 2.5 goals67.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.49

Model read

▾

"Paris SG or Rennes? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Paris SG heavy favourites at 71% when Paris SG meet Rennes in the Ligue 1 on 23 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 65% for Paris SG. The gap itself is information. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 67% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. The recent series reads 3 wins for Paris SG, 1 draws and 1 for Rennes over 5 games, 4.0 goals on average. The run in: Paris SG arrive W4 D1 L1, Rennes W4 D0 L2. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.71, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.8%@ 2.51
Over 11.5 corners30.6%@ 3.27
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.8%@ 1.64
Both teams to score60.1%@ 1.66
Over 9.5 corners50.1%@ 2.00
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.44
2-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.15
1-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.88

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paris SG

70.8%+6.2%

Draw

17.1%-2.4%

Rennes

12.0%-3.9%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.71, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.4%

High probability

Over 2.567.2%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes60.1%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.1%

Good chance

Over 10.539.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersParis SG60.1%Rennes29.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.3%

Good chance

Over 26.542.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.4%2.567.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.567.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.71, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

Paris SGWDWWL
RennesWWLWL

Last 5 meetings: Paris SG 3 · 1 draws · Rennes 1 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-02-13Rennes 3-1 Paris SG
2025-12-06Paris SG 5-0 Rennes
2025-03-08Rennes 1-4 Paris SG
2024-09-27Paris SG 3-1 Rennes
2024-02-25Paris SG 1-1 Rennes

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Paris SGRennes
League position#1 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L24-4-617-8-9
Current streakL1L1
Points per game2.241.74
Record, home vs away13-2-27-4-6
PPG, home vs away2.411.47
Goals scored per game2.181.74
Goals conceded per game0.851.47
Scored, home vs away2.411.71
Conceded, home vs away0.711.94
1st half goals per game0.970.79
2nd half goals per game1.210.94
Corners won per game6.46.0
Cards per game1.11.8
Fouls per game9.212.4
Red cards this season24
Shots per game17.714.2
Shots on target per game6.75.0
xG for per game2.221.60
xG against per game0.991.77
Over 2.5 rate

61.8%70.6%

BTTS rate

41.2%58.8%

Clean sheets

52.9%29.4%

Rates this season:Paris SGRennes

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 51%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Esteban LepaulRennes · key player
To score46.6%

@ 2.15

1+ on target67.4%

@ 1.48

2+ shots73.8%

@ 1.36

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.7
Arnaud Kalimuendo MuingaRennes · in form
To score40.2%

@ 2.49

1+ on target66.4%

@ 1.51

2+ shots67.0%

@ 1.49

Shots/90 2.6SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.58
Amine GouiriRennes · in form
To score10.7%

@ 9.35

1+ on target48.5%

@ 2.06

2+ shots38.5%

@ 2.60

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.19

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Paris SG win1.501.41
Draw4.755.83
Rennes win5.758.32
Over 2.5 goals1.441.49
Under 2.5 goals2.753.05

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paris SG win1.51
Draw5.32
Rennes win6.66
Both teams to score1.67

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.49
Over 3.5 goals2.20
Over 4.5 goals3.74
Paris SG most1.51
Rennes most6.66

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.52
Paris SG most1.66
Rennes most3.37

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.68
Over 3.5 cards2.68
Over 4.5 cards5.00
Over 5.5 cards10.73
Paris SG most2.99
Rennes most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22
Over 7.5 SoT1.38
Over 8.5 SoT1.64
Over 9.5 SoT2.03
Paris SG most1.55
Rennes most4.02

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.81
Over 26.5 shots2.34
Over 28.5 shots3.20
Paris SG most1.41
Rennes most4.21

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.82
Over 22.5 fouls2.51
Over 24.5 fouls3.77
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.2% Over 7.5 72.4% Over 8.5 61.1% Over 9.5 49.4%
Most: Paris SG 64.6% Most: Rennes 24.9%
Paris SG Over 4.2 65.1% Rennes Over 4.2 36.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 59.7% Over 3.5 37.3% Over 4.5 20.0%
Most: Paris SG 33.4% Most: Rennes 42.8%
Paris SG Over 1.8 42.1% Rennes Over 1.8 49.2%

Rennes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Esteban Lepaul 2.93 1.25 0.7 67.4% 73.8% 46.6%
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 2.6 1.23 0.58 66.4% 67.0% 40.2%
Amine Gouiri 2.25 1.12 0.19 48.5% 38.5% 10.7%
Mohamed Meïté 3.24 1.05 0.44 33.8% 36.4% 15.9%
Albert Grønbæk 2.48 0.99 0.25 41.3% 38.5% 12.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paris SG clean sheet 33.1%
Rennes clean sheet 9.2%
Paris SG win to nil 29.6%
Rennes win to nil 5.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 66.2% draw 18.8% away 15.0%
double_chance
1X 85.0% 12 81.2% X2 33.8%
dnb
home 81.5% away 18.5%
btts
yes 60.1% no 39.9%
clean_sheet
home 34.3% away 9.2%
win_to_nil
home 30.8% away 5.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 19.5% home_by_3plus 24.9%
away_by_1 9.5% away_by_2 3.9% away_by_3plus 1.5%
correct_score
0-0 3.5% 0-1 3.0% 0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.7% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 7.1% 1-1 8.4% 1-2 4.3%
1-3 1.5% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.0% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 7.2% 3-1 7.6% 3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 4.3% 4-1 4.6% 4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 2.1% 5-1 2.2% 5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.6%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.5% under_0.5 3.5% over_1.5 86.4%
under_1.5 13.6% over_2.5 67.2% under_2.5 32.8%
over_3.5 45.5% under_3.5 54.5% over_4.5 26.8%
under_4.5 73.2% over_5.5 13.8% under_5.5 86.2%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 90.8% under_0.5 9.2% over_1.5 69.0%
under_1.5 31.0% over_2.5 42.8% under_2.5 57.2%
team_away
over_0.5 65.7% under_0.5 34.3% over_1.5 29.0%
under_1.5 71.0% over_2.5 9.4% under_2.5 90.6%
most
home 66.2% draw 18.8% away 15.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.9% away_+2.5 75.1% home_-1.5 44.4%
away_+1.5 55.6% home_-0.5 66.2% away_+0.5 33.8%
home_+0.5 85.0% away_-0.5 15.0% home_+1.5 94.5%
away_-1.5 5.5% home_+2.5 98.5% away_-2.5 1.5%
total_exact
exact_0 3.5% exact_1 10.1% exact_2 19.2%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 18.8% exact_5 13.0%
exact_6 7.5% exact_7plus 6.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.6% draw 35.6% away 18.8%
total
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
btts
yes 24.6% no 75.4%
total_exact
exact_0 22.9% exact_1 33.8% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 12.2% exact_4plus 6.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 58.4% draw 27.0% away 14.7%
total
over_0.5 86.5% under_0.5 13.5% over_1.5 59.5%
under_1.5 40.5% over_2.5 32.4% under_2.5 67.6%
btts
yes 33.0% no 67.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 41.0% H/D 3.5% H/A 1.0%
D/H 20.8% D/D 9.6% D/A 5.2%
A/H 4.9% A/D 4.9% A/A 9.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.6% under_7.5 25.4% over_8.5 63.4%
under_8.5 36.6% over_9.5 51.4% under_9.5 48.6%
over_10.5 39.8% under_10.5 60.3% over_11.5 29.3%
under_11.5 70.7% over_12.5 20.6% under_12.5 79.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.6% under_3.5 22.4% over_4.5 63.4%
under_4.5 36.6% over_5.5 48.5% under_5.5 51.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 60.3% draw 10.1% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.0% away_+3.5 71.0% home_-1.5 49.5%
away_+1.5 50.5% home_-0.5 60.3% away_+0.5 39.7%
home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6% home_+1.5 79.1%
away_-1.5 20.9% home_+3.5 91.2% away_-3.5 8.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.5% under_22.5 32.5% over_24.5 55.3%
under_24.5 44.7% over_26.5 42.8% under_26.5 57.2%
over_28.5 31.2% under_28.5 68.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.7% under_10.5 19.3% over_12.5 66.5%
under_12.5 33.5% over_14.5 50.5% under_14.5 49.5%
team_away
over_10.5 49.6% under_10.5 50.4% over_12.5 31.6%
under_12.5 68.4% over_14.5 18.0% under_14.5 82.1%
most
home 71.1% draw 5.2% away 23.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 46.8% away_+4.5 53.2% home_-2.5 59.4%
away_+2.5 40.6% home_-0.5 71.1% away_+0.5 28.9%
home_+0.5 76.3% away_-0.5 23.8% home_+2.5 84.9%
away_-2.5 15.1% home_+4.5 91.1% away_-4.5 8.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.2% under_6.5 17.8% over_7.5 72.4%
under_7.5 27.6% over_8.5 61.1% under_8.5 38.9%
over_9.5 49.4% under_9.5 50.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.3% under_3.5 20.7% over_4.5 65.1%
under_4.5 34.9% over_5.5 49.9% under_5.5 50.1%
team_away
over_3.5 54.0% under_3.5 46.0% over_4.5 36.0%
under_4.5 64.0% over_5.5 21.8% under_5.5 78.2%
most
home 64.6% draw 10.5% away 24.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 41.0% away_+2.5 59.0% home_-0.5 64.6%
away_+0.5 35.4% home_+0.5 75.1% away_-0.5 24.9%
home_+2.5 90.1% away_-2.5 9.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 59.7% under_2.5 40.3% over_3.5 37.3%
under_3.5 62.7% over_4.5 20.0% under_4.5 80.0%
over_5.5 9.3% under_5.5 90.7%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 42.1% under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.5%
under_2.5 82.5%
team_away
over_1.5 49.2% under_1.5 50.8% over_2.5 23.1%
under_2.5 76.9%
most
home 33.4% draw 23.8% away 42.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.4% away_+1.5 84.6% home_-0.5 33.4%
away_+0.5 66.6% home_+0.5 57.2% away_-0.5 42.8%
home_+1.5 78.0% away_-1.5 22.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 54.9% under_20.5 45.1% over_22.5 39.8%
under_22.5 60.2% over_24.5 26.5% under_24.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.1% under_9.5 43.9% over_11.5 34.7%
under_11.5 65.3% over_13.5 18.3% under_13.5 81.7%
team_away
over_9.5 64.2% under_9.5 35.8% over_11.5 43.0%
under_11.5 57.0% over_13.5 24.8% under_13.5 75.2%
most
home 40.2% draw 7.7% away 52.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-0.5 40.2%
away_+0.5 59.8% home_+2.5 63.1% away_-2.5 36.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
home
yes 7.5% no 92.5%
away
yes 6.8% no 93.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paris SG predictions · Rennes predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1Paris SGRennesTrack record