Atalanta vs Sassuolo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Aug 2026

Serie A

Atalanta

LDWLD

Full time2-1Sun, 23 Aug 202619:45UK26°C · Clear

Sassuolo

DWLLL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Atalanta or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Both teams to score

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score

3 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Atalanta at 56.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.0% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

AtalantaWin probability

56.7%

Top 3 convictions

Atalanta or draw81.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.23

Over 1.5 goals76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Both teams to score53.0%Good chancePays @ 1.89

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Atalanta heavy favourites at 57% when Atalanta meet Sassuolo in the Serie A on 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Atalanta higher (63%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 2 wins for Atalanta, 0 draws and 3 for Sassuolo over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. • For shots markets, Nikola Krstovic is the obvious watch at 1.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Atalanta against W2 D1 L3 for Sassuolo. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Sassuolo43.3%@ 2.31

Over 9.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35

Over 10.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91

Over 2.5 goals52.0%@ 1.92

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.54

1-0 correct score10.6%@ 9.46

2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.26

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Atalanta

56.7%-6.6%

Draw

24.3%+1.5%

Sassuolo

19.0%+5.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.3%

Good chance

Over 9.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.1%

Low chance

Most cornersAtalanta59.5%Sassuolo30.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.538.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.6%2.552.0%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AtalantaLDWLD

SassuoloDWLLL

Last 5 meetings: Atalanta 2 · 0 draws · Sassuolo 3 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-03-01Sassuolo 2-1 Atalanta

2025-11-09Atalanta 0-3 Sassuolo

2024-02-17Atalanta 3-0 Sassuolo

2023-08-20Sassuolo 0-2 Atalanta

2023-02-04Sassuolo 1-0 Atalanta

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Nikola KrstovicAtalanta · key player

To score26.3%

@ 3.80

1+ on target63.3%

@ 1.58

2+ shots80.1%

@ 1.25

Shots/90 5SoT/90 1.67Goals/90 0.51

Andrea PinamontiSassuolo · key player

To score22.1%

@ 4.52

1+ on target56.4%

@ 1.77

2+ shots60.2%

@ 1.66

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.31

Gianluca ScamaccaAtalanta · in form

To score32.9%

@ 3.04

1+ on target58.5%

@ 1.71

2+ shots67.3%

@ 1.49

Shots/90 3.95SoT/90 1.5Goals/90 0.68

Domenico BerardiSassuolo · in form

To score26.4%

@ 3.79

1+ on target55.5%

@ 1.80

2+ shots45.4%

@ 2.20

Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.36

Mateo ReteguiAtalanta · in form

To score48.1%

@ 2.08

1+ on target62.1%

@ 1.61

2+ shots78.4%

@ 1.28

Shots/90 3.87SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.88

Armand LaurienteSassuolo · in form

To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target49.5%

@ 2.02

2+ shots55.8%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 2.41SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.24

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Atalanta win1.531.76

Draw4.104.12

Sassuolo win6.505.27

Over 2.5 goals1.671.92

Under 2.5 goals2.202.08

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Atalanta win1.84

Draw4.05

Sassuolo win4.75

Both teams to score1.89

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.31

Over 2.5 goals1.92

Over 3.5 goals3.34

Atalanta most1.84

Sassuolo most4.75

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.55

Over 8.5 corners1.86

Over 9.5 corners2.33

Over 10.5 corners3.01

Atalanta most1.68

Sassuolo most3.27

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46

Over 3.5 cards2.11

Over 4.5 cards3.48

Over 5.5 cards6.49

Atalanta most2.88

Sassuolo most2.30

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49

Over 7.5 SoT1.79

Over 8.5 SoT2.24

Over 9.5 SoT2.90

Atalanta most1.67

Sassuolo most3.42

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62

Over 24.5 shots2.00

Over 26.5 shots2.61

Over 28.5 shots3.60

Atalanta most1.47

Sassuolo most3.72

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.53

Over 22.5 fouls1.94

Over 24.5 fouls2.63

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	67.2%	Over 7.5	55.9%	Over 8.5	44.7%	Over 9.5	34.5%
Most: Atalanta	59.7%	Most: Sassuolo	29.3%
Atalanta Over 4.2	50.4%	Sassuolo Over 4.2	28.3%

Cards

Over 2.5	68.5%	Over 3.5	47.4%	Over 4.5	28.8%
Most: Atalanta	34.8%	Most: Sassuolo	43.5%
Atalanta Over 1.8	49.4%	Sassuolo Over 1.8	55.8%

Atalanta: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Nikola Krstovic	5	1.67	0.51	63.3%	80.1%	26.3%
Gianluca Scamacca	3.95	1.5	0.68	58.5%	67.3%	32.9%
Mateo Retegui	3.87	1.3	0.88	62.1%	78.4%	48.1%
Daniel Maldini	3.3	1.28	0.55	30.8%	24.5%	14.6%
Giacomo Raspadori	3.21	1.26	0.34	57.0%	63.3%	20.4%

Sassuolo: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Andrea Pinamonti	2.52	1.03	0.31	56.4%	60.2%	22.1%
Domenico Berardi	1.8	0.95	0.36	55.5%	45.4%	26.4%
Armand Lauriente	2.41	0.88	0.24	49.5%	55.8%	17.0%
M'Bala Nzola	2.16	0.79	0.2	25.0%	18.6%	7.0%
Cristian Volpato	1.78	0.59	0.17	25.1%	21.8%	8.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Atalanta clean sheet	36.2%
Sassuolo clean sheet	17.4%
Atalanta win to nil	29.3%
Sassuolo win to nil	10.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	54.2%	draw	24.7%	away	21.1%

double_chance

1X	78.9%	12	75.3%	X2	45.8%

dnb

home	72.0%	away	28.0%

btts

yes	53.0%	no	47.0%

clean_sheet

home	36.6%	away	17.4%

win_to_nil

home	29.6%	away	10.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.7%	home_by_2	16.8%	home_by_3plus	13.8%
away_by_1	13.4%	away_by_2	5.6%	away_by_3plus	2.1%

correct_score

0-0	7.0%	0-1	5.9%	0-2	3.2%
0-3	1.1%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.6%	1-1	11.7%	1-2	5.6%
1-3	1.9%	1-4	0.5%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.7%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.9%
2-3	1.7%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.7%	3-1	5.7%	3-2	2.9%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.5%	4-1	2.5%	4-2	1.3%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.9%	5-1	0.9%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.0%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.0%	under_0.5	7.0%	over_1.5	76.6%
under_1.5	23.4%	over_2.5	52.0%	under_2.5	48.0%
over_3.5	29.9%	under_3.5	70.1%	over_4.5	14.7%
under_4.5	85.3%	over_5.5	6.2%	under_5.5	93.8%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	82.6%	under_0.5	17.4%	over_1.5	52.2%
under_1.5	47.8%	over_2.5	25.7%	under_2.5	74.3%

team_away

over_0.5	63.4%	under_0.5	36.6%	over_1.5	26.7%
under_1.5	73.3%	over_2.5	8.2%	under_2.5	91.8%

most

home	54.2%	draw	24.7%	away	21.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	13.8%	away_+2.5	86.3%	home_-1.5	30.6%
away_+1.5	69.4%	home_-0.5	54.2%	away_+0.5	45.8%
home_+0.5	78.9%	away_-0.5	21.1%	home_+1.5	92.3%
away_-1.5	7.7%	home_+2.5	97.9%	away_-2.5	2.1%

total_exact

exact_0	7.0%	exact_1	16.4%	exact_2	24.6%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	15.2%	exact_5	8.4%
exact_6	3.9%	exact_7plus	2.3%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	41.5%	draw	39.1%	away	19.4%

total

over_0.5	72.5%	under_0.5	27.5%	over_1.5	37.0%
under_1.5	63.0%	over_2.5	14.1%	under_2.5	85.9%

btts

yes	20.9%	no	79.1%

total_exact

exact_0	27.5%	exact_1	35.5%	exact_2	22.9%
exact_3	9.9%	exact_4plus	4.2%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	41.2%	draw	38.9%	away	20.0%

total

over_0.5	73.0%	under_0.5	27.0%	over_1.5	37.7%
under_1.5	62.4%	over_2.5	14.5%	under_2.5	85.5%

btts

yes	21.5%	no	78.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	35.6%	H/D	4.7%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	16.1%	D/D	15.2%	D/A	7.8%
A/H	2.3%	A/D	4.6%	A/A	12.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	64.7%	under_7.5	35.3%	over_8.5	53.7%
under_8.5	46.3%	over_9.5	43.0%	under_9.5	57.0%
over_10.5	33.2%	under_10.5	66.8%	over_11.5	24.8%
under_11.5	75.2%	over_12.5	18.0%	under_12.5	82.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	70.1%	under_3.5	29.9%	over_4.5	56.3%
under_4.5	43.7%	over_5.5	43.0%	under_5.5	57.0%

team_away

over_3.5	49.5%	under_3.5	50.5%	over_4.5	34.1%
under_4.5	65.9%	over_5.5	22.1%	under_5.5	77.9%

most

home	59.7%	draw	9.8%	away	30.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	30.0%	away_+3.5	70.0%	home_-1.5	49.4%
away_+1.5	50.6%	home_-0.5	59.7%	away_+0.5	40.3%
home_+0.5	69.4%	away_-0.5	30.6%	home_+1.5	78.0%
away_-1.5	22.0%	home_+3.5	90.1%	away_-3.5	9.9%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	61.9%	under_22.5	38.1%	over_24.5	50.0%
under_24.5	50.0%	over_26.5	38.3%	under_26.5	61.7%
over_28.5	27.8%	under_28.5	72.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.4%	under_10.5	24.6%	over_12.5	60.7%
under_12.5	39.3%	over_14.5	45.3%	under_14.5	54.7%

team_away

over_10.5	47.4%	under_10.5	52.6%	over_12.5	30.7%
under_12.5	69.3%	over_14.5	18.0%	under_14.5	82.0%

most

home	67.9%	draw	5.3%	away	26.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	44.2%	away_+4.5	55.8%	home_-2.5	56.3%
away_+2.5	43.7%	home_-0.5	67.9%	away_+0.5	32.2%
home_+0.5	73.1%	away_-0.5	26.9%	home_+2.5	82.2%
away_-2.5	17.8%	home_+4.5	89.0%	away_-4.5	11.0%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	67.2%	under_6.5	32.8%	over_7.5	55.9%
under_7.5	44.1%	over_8.5	44.7%	under_8.5	55.3%
over_9.5	34.5%	under_9.5	65.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.3%	under_3.5	34.7%	over_4.5	50.4%
under_4.5	49.6%	over_5.5	36.8%	under_5.5	63.2%

team_away

over_3.5	43.6%	under_3.5	56.4%	over_4.5	28.3%
under_4.5	71.7%	over_5.5	17.2%	under_5.5	82.8%

most

home	59.7%	draw	11.0%	away	29.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	36.7%	away_+2.5	63.3%	home_-0.5	59.7%
away_+0.5	40.3%	home_+0.5	70.7%	away_-0.5	29.3%
home_+2.5	87.3%	away_-2.5	12.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	68.5%	under_2.5	31.5%	over_3.5	47.4%
under_3.5	52.6%	over_4.5	28.8%	under_4.5	71.2%
over_5.5	15.4%	under_5.5	84.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	49.4%	under_1.5	50.6%	over_2.5	23.6%
under_2.5	76.4%

team_away

over_1.5	55.8%	under_1.5	44.2%	over_2.5	29.4%
under_2.5	70.6%

most

home	34.8%	draw	21.7%	away	43.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.5%	away_+1.5	82.5%	home_-0.5	34.8%
away_+0.5	65.2%	home_+0.5	56.5%	away_-0.5	43.5%
home_+1.5	75.9%	away_-1.5	24.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	65.4%	under_20.5	34.6%	over_22.5	51.5%
under_22.5	48.5%	over_24.5	38.0%	under_24.5	62.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	70.3%	under_9.5	29.7%	over_11.5	51.1%
under_11.5	48.9%	over_13.5	33.0%	under_13.5	67.0%

team_away

over_9.5	63.2%	under_9.5	36.8%	over_11.5	43.0%
under_11.5	57.0%	over_13.5	25.7%	under_13.5	74.3%

most

home	52.2%	draw	7.0%	away	40.8%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.7%	away_+3.5	68.3%	home_-0.5	52.2%
away_+0.5	47.8%	home_+2.5	72.1%	away_-2.5	27.9%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.8%	no	89.2%

home

yes	4.7%	no	95.3%

away

yes	6.4%	no	93.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Atalanta predictions · Sassuolo predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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