Stuttgart vs FC Koln prediction & probabilities (2026-09-04)

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Stuttgart vs FC Koln: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 2 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Stuttgart

DDWDL

Full time4-1Fri, 4 Sep 202619:30UK26°C · Clearing
FC Koln

LDLLW

Model’s top convictions

89%

Over 1.5 goals

78%

Stuttgart or draw

71%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time11 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Stuttgart 4-1 FC Koln
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
12 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Stuttgart at 60.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 71.3% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 88.7% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 67.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 80.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 89.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.4% and it landed (18 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 53.5% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 58.7% and it landed (40 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 70.9% and it landed (13 shots on target). We called No at 82.5% and it landed.

Match data Stuttgart FC Koln
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 3 1
Shots 22 18
Shots, 1st half 11 4
Shots, 2nd half 11 14
Shots on target 8 5
Corners 10 8
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 5 6
Expected goals (xG) 3.52 2.86

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StuttgartWin probability
60.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals88.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.13
Stuttgart or draw78.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 2.5 goals71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Stuttgart at 61% against FC Koln, Bundesliga, 4 September 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 71% with both teams to score at 68%. The recent series reads 4 wins for Stuttgart, 1 draws and 0 for FC Koln over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. The run in: Stuttgart arrive W1 D3 L2, FC Koln W1 D2 L3. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Draw or FC Koln39.3%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners61.4%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.92
1-1 correct score8.3%@ 11.99
3-1 correct score7.1%@ 14.14

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Stuttgart

60.7%

Draw

17.3%

FC Koln

22.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.588.7%

High probability

Over 2.571.3%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes67.7%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.8%

Good chance

Over 10.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersStuttgart59.9%FC Koln29.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.7%

Good chance

Over 26.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.0%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.588.7%2.571.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.571.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

StuttgartDDWDL
FC KolnLDLLW

Last 5 meetings: Stuttgart 4 · 1 draws · FC Koln 0 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-02-14Stuttgart 3-1 FC Koln
2025-09-28FC Koln 1-2 Stuttgart
2024-02-24Stuttgart 1-1 FC Koln
2023-09-30FC Koln 0-2 Stuttgart
2023-02-18Stuttgart 3-0 FC Koln

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

StuttgartFC Koln
League position#18 of 18#7 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0
Current streakL1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Stuttgart win1.72
Draw4.93
FC Koln win4.62
Both teams to score1.48

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.13
Over 2.5 goals1.40
Over 3.5 goals1.98
Over 4.5 goals3.21
Stuttgart most1.72
FC Koln most4.62

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.46
Stuttgart most1.67
FC Koln most3.34

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.87
Over 4.5 cards2.94
Over 5.5 cards5.24
Stuttgart most2.45
FC Koln most2.63

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.41
Over 8.5 SoT1.68
Over 9.5 SoT2.08
Stuttgart most1.60
FC Koln most3.71

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.42
Over 24.5 shots1.70
Over 26.5 shots2.14
Over 28.5 shots2.85
Stuttgart most1.50
FC Koln most3.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.10
Over 22.5 fouls2.81
Over 24.5 fouls3.95
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.9% Over 7.5 70.9% Over 8.5 59.6% Over 9.5 48.0%
Most: Stuttgart 62.3% Most: FC Koln 26.9%
Stuttgart Over 4.2 62.6% FC Koln Over 4.2 36.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.8% Over 3.5 53.5% Over 4.5 34.0%
Most: Stuttgart 40.8% Most: FC Koln 38.0%
Stuttgart Over 1.8 58.2% FC Koln Over 1.8 56.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Stuttgart clean sheet 24.4%
FC Koln clean sheet 9.9%
Stuttgart win to nil 21.5%
FC Koln win to nil 7.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 58.1% draw 20.3% away 21.6%
double_chance
1X 78.4% 12 79.7% X2 41.9%
dnb
home 72.9% away 27.2%
btts
yes 67.7% no 32.3%
clean_sheet
home 25.2% away 9.9%
win_to_nil
home 22.3% away 7.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.9% home_by_2 17.3% home_by_3plus 19.9%
away_by_1 12.3% away_by_2 6.1% away_by_3plus 3.2%
correct_score
0-0 2.9% 0-1 3.1% 0-2 2.4%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 5.4% 1-1 8.3% 1-2 5.5%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.7% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 5.1% 3-1 7.1% 3-2 4.9%
3-3 2.2% 3-4 0.8% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 3.0% 4-1 4.1% 4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.3% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.4% 5-1 1.9% 5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.6% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 3.4%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 97.1% under_0.5 2.9% over_1.5 88.7%
under_1.5 11.3% over_2.5 71.3% under_2.5 28.7%
over_3.5 50.4% under_3.5 49.6% over_4.5 31.2%
under_4.5 68.8% over_5.5 17.0% under_5.5 83.0%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 90.1% under_0.5 9.9% over_1.5 67.2%
under_1.5 32.8% over_2.5 40.8% under_2.5 59.2%
team_away
over_0.5 74.8% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
most
home 58.1% draw 20.3% away 21.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.9% away_+2.5 80.1% home_-1.5 37.1%
away_+1.5 62.9% home_-0.5 58.1% away_+0.5 41.9%
home_+0.5 78.4% away_-0.5 21.6% home_+1.5 90.7%
away_-1.5 9.3% home_+2.5 96.8% away_-2.5 3.2%
total_exact
exact_0 2.9% exact_1 8.4% exact_2 17.4%
exact_3 20.9% exact_4 19.3% exact_5 14.2%
exact_6 8.8% exact_7plus 8.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 52.5% draw 31.9% away 15.6%
total
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 48.9%
under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
btts
yes 26.5% no 73.5%
total_exact
exact_0 19.3% exact_1 31.8% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 14.3% exact_4plus 8.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 47.3% draw 28.0% away 24.7%
total
over_0.5 89.2% under_0.5 10.8% over_1.5 65.2%
under_1.5 34.8% over_2.5 38.4% under_2.5 61.6%
btts
yes 43.4% no 56.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 43.9% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.8%
D/H 15.1% D/D 8.9% D/A 7.9%
A/H 3.0% A/D 3.5% A/A 9.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.4% under_7.5 24.6% over_8.5 64.3%
under_8.5 35.7% over_9.5 52.4% under_9.5 47.6%
over_10.5 40.7% under_10.5 59.3% over_11.5 30.1%
under_11.5 69.9% over_12.5 21.3% under_12.5 78.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.8% under_3.5 22.2% over_4.5 63.8%
under_4.5 36.2% over_5.5 49.0% under_5.5 51.0%
team_away
over_3.5 58.1% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.8%
under_4.5 59.2% over_5.5 26.4% under_5.5 73.6%
most
home 60.1% draw 10.0% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.8% home_-1.5 49.4%
away_+1.5 50.6% home_-0.5 60.1% away_+0.5 39.9%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 78.7%
away_-1.5 21.3% home_+3.5 90.9% away_-3.5 9.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 70.3% under_22.5 29.7% over_24.5 58.7%
under_24.5 41.3% over_26.5 46.6% under_26.5 53.4%
over_28.5 35.0% under_28.5 65.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.0% under_10.5 20.0% over_12.5 65.9%
under_12.5 34.1% over_14.5 50.2% under_14.5 49.8%
team_away
over_10.5 55.3% under_10.5 44.7% over_12.5 37.5%
under_12.5 62.5% over_14.5 22.9% under_14.5 77.1%
most
home 66.9% draw 5.4% away 27.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.9% away_+4.5 57.1% home_-2.5 55.1%
away_+2.5 44.9% home_-0.5 66.9% away_+0.5 33.1%
home_+0.5 72.2% away_-0.5 27.8% home_+2.5 81.5%
away_-2.5 18.5% home_+4.5 88.5% away_-4.5 11.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.9% under_6.5 19.1% over_7.5 70.9%
under_7.5 29.1% over_8.5 59.6% under_8.5 40.4%
over_9.5 48.0% under_9.5 52.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.1% under_3.5 22.9% over_4.5 62.6%
under_4.5 37.4% over_5.5 47.5% under_5.5 52.5%
team_away
over_3.5 54.4% under_3.5 45.6% over_4.5 36.8%
under_4.5 63.2% over_5.5 22.7% under_5.5 77.3%
most
home 62.3% draw 10.7% away 26.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 39.0% away_+2.5 61.0% home_-0.5 62.3%
away_+0.5 37.7% home_+0.5 73.1% away_-0.5 26.9%
home_+2.5 88.8% away_-2.5 11.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.8% under_2.5 26.2% over_3.5 53.5%
under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 34.0% under_4.5 66.0%
over_5.5 19.1% under_5.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.2% under_1.5 41.8% over_2.5 31.2%
under_2.5 68.8%
team_away
over_1.5 56.2% under_1.5 43.8% over_2.5 29.2%
under_2.5 70.8%
most
home 40.8% draw 21.2% away 38.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.4% away_+1.5 77.6% home_-0.5 40.8%
away_+0.5 59.2% home_+0.5 62.0% away_-0.5 38.0%
home_+1.5 79.8% away_-1.5 20.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 47.6% under_20.5 52.4% over_22.5 35.6%
under_22.5 64.4% over_24.5 25.3% under_24.5 74.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 50.6% under_9.5 49.4% over_11.5 33.6%
under_11.5 66.4% over_13.5 20.4% under_13.5 79.6%
team_away
over_9.5 55.1% under_9.5 44.9% over_11.5 38.0%
under_11.5 62.1% over_13.5 24.0% under_13.5 76.0%
most
home 43.6% draw 6.5% away 49.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-0.5 43.6%
away_+0.5 56.4% home_+2.5 62.8% away_-2.5 37.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.5% no 82.5%
home
yes 8.7% no 91.3%
away
yes 9.6% no 90.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Stuttgart predictions · FC Koln predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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