Derby vs Wrexham prediction & probabilities (2026-10-10)

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Derby vs Wrexham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Sep 2026

Championship
Derby

WLLLD

Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
Wrexham

WDDLW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Derby or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Derby42.2%

Win probability · fair 2.37

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.3%Fair 1.31
Derby or drawLikely68.8%Fair 1.45
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.2%Fair 1.51

Model read

Derby versus Wrexham on 10 October 2026 tilts towards Derby in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Derby arrive W1 D1 L4, Wrexham W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 0 wins for Derby, 1 draws and 1 for Wrexham, averaging 2.5 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.3%@ 2.21
Over 11.5 corners35.6%@ 2.81
Wrexham win31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk

Draw or Wrexham57.8%@ 1.73
Both teams to score55.7%@ 1.80
Over 9.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.91
1-0 correct score9.1%@ 11.03
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.17

Model vs market

Derby

42.2%

Draw

26.6%

Wrexham

31.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.3%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.4%Fair 1.95
BTTS · YesClose call55.7%Fair 1.80

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.2%Fair 1.51
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.7%Fair 1.80
Over 10.5 cornersClose call45.3%Fair 2.21
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.6%Fair 2.81
Most cornersDerby58.6%Wrexham31.2%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.6%Fair 1.65
Over 24.5 shotsClose call47.8%Fair 2.09
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.1%Fair 3.99

Recent shot volume

Derby11.3 taken15.5 faced
Wrexham9.5 taken12.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.3%2.551.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

DerbyWLLLD
WrexhamWDDLW

Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 · 1 draws · Wrexham 1 · 2.5 goals/game.

2026-01-04Derby 1-2 Wrexham
2025-09-27Wrexham 1-1 Derby

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DerbyWrexham
League position#22 of 27#15 of 27
Record W-D-L1-2-52-4-2
Current streakD1W1
Points per game0.621.25
Record, home vs away0-1-31-2-1
PPG, home vs away0.251.25
Goals scored per game0.881.12
Goals conceded per game1.751.50
Scored, home vs away0.751.00
Conceded, home vs away2.001.75
1st half goals per game0.500.50
2nd half goals per game0.380.62
Corners won per game6.44.8
Cards per game2.31.1
Fouls per game13.411.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game12.310.9
Shots faced per game15.312.3
Shots on target per game3.63.5
Over 2.5 rate

62.5%50.0%

BTTS rate

50.0%62.5%

Clean sheets

12.5%25.0%

Rates this season:DerbyWrexham

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 62% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Derby win2.37
Draw3.76
Wrexham win3.21
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.94
Over 3.5 goals3.41
Derby most2.37
Wrexham most3.21

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Derby most1.70
Wrexham most3.20

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.05
Over 4.5 cards3.37
Over 5.5 cards6.32
Derby most2.43
Wrexham most2.70

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56
Over 7.5 SoT1.97
Over 8.5 SoT2.64
Over 9.5 SoT3.72
Derby most1.95
Wrexham most2.83

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.09
Over 26.5 shots2.80
Over 28.5 shots3.99
Derby most1.61
Wrexham most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.80
Over 22.5 fouls2.52
Over 24.5 fouls3.87
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 60.6% Over 24.5 47.8% Over 26.5 35.7% Over 28.5 25.1%
Most: Derby 62.2% Most: Wrexham 31.9%
Derby Over 13.2 47.0% Wrexham Over 13.2 25.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.0% Over 7.5 50.7% Over 8.5 37.9% Over 9.5 26.8%
Most: Derby 51.4% Most: Wrexham 35.3%
Derby Over 4.2 40.7% Wrexham Over 4.2 29.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.0% Over 3.5 48.8% Over 4.5 29.7%
Most: Derby 41.1% Most: Wrexham 37.0%
Derby Over 1.8 55.4% Wrexham Over 1.8 52.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Derby clean sheet 28.7%
Wrexham clean sheet 22.6%
Derby win to nil 21.5%
Wrexham win to nil 15.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.2% draw 26.6% away 31.2%
double_chance
1X 68.8% 12 73.4% X2 57.8%
dnb
home 57.5% away 42.5%
btts
yes 55.7% no 44.3%
clean_sheet
home 28.8% away 22.6%
win_to_nil
home 21.7% away 15.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.3% home_by_2 12.8% home_by_3plus 8.2%
away_by_1 17.7% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 4.5%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 7.5% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.1% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.1% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.6% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.3%
under_1.5 23.7% over_2.5 51.4% under_2.5 48.6%
over_3.5 29.3% under_3.5 70.7% over_4.5 14.2%
under_4.5 85.8% over_5.5 5.9% under_5.5 94.1%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
team_away
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.4%
under_1.5 64.6% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 86.9%
most
home 42.2% draw 26.6% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.2% away_+2.5 91.9% home_-1.5 21.0%
away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 42.2% away_+0.5 57.8%
home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2% home_+1.5 86.6%
away_-1.5 13.5% home_+2.5 95.5% away_-2.5 4.5%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.6% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.1% exact_5 8.3%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 39.8% away 26.1%
total
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.6%
under_1.5 62.4% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.6%
btts
yes 22.8% no 77.2%
total_exact
exact_0 27.1% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.1%
exact_3 10.1% exact_4plus 4.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.9% draw 37.0% away 28.1%
total
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.5%
under_1.5 56.5% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 27.2% no 72.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.8% H/D 5.3% H/A 2.0%
D/H 13.9% D/D 14.7% D/A 11.2%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.1% A/A 18.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.3% under_7.5 20.7% over_8.5 69.1%
under_8.5 30.9% over_9.5 57.6% under_9.5 42.4%
over_10.5 45.9% under_10.5 54.1% over_11.5 34.9%
under_11.5 65.1% over_12.5 25.4% under_12.5 74.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.8% under_3.5 20.2% over_4.5 66.2%
under_4.5 33.8% over_5.5 51.4% under_5.5 48.6%
team_away
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 45.8%
under_4.5 54.2% over_5.5 30.6% under_5.5 69.4%
most
home 58.7% draw 10.1% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.2% away_+3.5 71.8% home_-1.5 48.1%
away_+1.5 51.9% home_-0.5 58.7% away_+0.5 41.3%
home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2% home_+1.5 77.6%
away_-1.5 22.4% home_+3.5 90.2% away_-3.5 9.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.6% under_22.5 39.5% over_24.5 47.8%
under_24.5 52.2% over_26.5 35.7% under_26.5 64.3%
over_28.5 25.1% under_28.5 74.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.0% under_10.5 28.0% over_12.5 55.4%
under_12.5 44.6% over_14.5 38.9% under_14.5 61.1%
team_away
over_10.5 51.6% under_10.5 48.4% over_12.5 33.5%
under_12.5 66.5% over_14.5 19.5% under_14.5 80.5%
most
home 62.2% draw 6.0% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.8% away_+4.5 63.2% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.9%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 78.7%
away_-2.5 21.3% home_+4.5 86.8% away_-4.5 13.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.0% under_6.5 36.0% over_7.5 50.7%
under_7.5 49.3% over_8.5 37.9% under_8.5 62.1%
over_9.5 26.9% under_9.5 73.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.6% under_3.5 41.4% over_4.5 40.7%
under_4.5 59.3% over_5.5 25.8% under_5.5 74.2%
team_away
over_3.5 47.1% under_3.5 52.9% over_4.5 29.5%
under_4.5 70.5% over_5.5 16.7% under_5.5 83.3%
most
home 51.3% draw 13.3% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.0% away_+2.5 74.0% home_-0.5 51.3%
away_+0.5 48.7% home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3%
home_+2.5 85.5% away_-2.5 14.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.0% under_2.5 30.0% over_3.5 48.8%
under_3.5 51.2% over_4.5 29.7% under_4.5 70.3%
over_5.5 15.8% under_5.5 84.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.5% under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5%
under_2.5 71.5%
team_away
over_1.5 52.4% under_1.5 47.6% over_2.5 25.8%
under_2.5 74.2%
most
home 41.1% draw 21.9% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.1% away_+1.5 77.9% home_-0.5 41.1%
away_+0.5 58.9% home_+0.5 63.0% away_-0.5 37.0%
home_+1.5 81.0% away_-1.5 19.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 55.6% under_20.5 44.4% over_22.5 39.7%
under_22.5 60.3% over_24.5 25.8% under_24.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 62.4% under_9.5 37.6% over_11.5 39.9%
under_11.5 60.1% over_13.5 21.5% under_13.5 78.5%
team_away
over_9.5 60.2% under_9.5 39.9% over_11.5 37.6%
under_11.5 62.4% over_13.5 19.7% under_13.5 80.3%
most
home 47.6% draw 8.1% away 44.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-0.5 47.6%
away_+0.5 52.4% home_+2.5 70.9% away_-2.5 29.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 3.5% no 96.5%
home
yes 1.5% no 98.5%
away
yes 2.0% no 98.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Derby predictions · Wrexham predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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