Sp Braga vs Sporting CP prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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Sp Braga vs Sporting CP: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp Braga

WWLWD

Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1020:15UK
Sporting CP
Model’s top convictions

86%

Sp Braga or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Sp Braga65.0%

Win probability · fair 1.54

Top signals

Sp Braga or drawVery likely86.4%Fair 1.16
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.5%Fair 1.29
Over 2.5 goalsClose call53.2%Fair 1.88

Model read

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Sp Braga heavy favourites at 65% when Sp Braga meet Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on 9 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. Sporting CP are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners41.8%@ 2.39
Draw or Sporting CP35.0%@ 2.86
Over 10.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners51.9%@ 1.93
Not both teams to score51.8%@ 1.93
Random finds

2-0 correct score12.1%@ 8.24
1-0 correct score11.6%@ 8.60
1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.80

Model vs market

Sp Braga

65.0%

Draw

21.4%

Sporting CP

13.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.5%Fair 1.29
Over 2.5Close call53.2%Fair 1.88
BTTS · YesClose call48.2%Fair 2.07

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call51.9%Fair 1.93
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely41.8%Fair 2.39
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely32.7%Fair 3.06
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot24.9%Fair 4.02
Most cornersSp Braga55.1%Sporting CP34.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely40.9%Fair 2.45
Over 26.5 shotsLong shot29.8%Fair 3.35
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot20.6%Fair 4.85

Recent shot volume

Sp Braga12.5 taken8.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.5%2.553.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.5%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Sp BragaWWLWD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sp BragaSporting CP
League position#5 of 24#20 of 24
Record W-D-L4-2-20-2-0
Current streakD1D2
Points per game1.75·
Record, home vs away3-0-00-1-0
PPG, home vs away3.00·
Goals scored per game1.12·
Goals conceded per game0.88·
Scored, home vs away1.00·
Conceded, home vs away0.00·
1st half goals per game0.33·
2nd half goals per game0.83·
Corners won per game4.0·
Cards per game2.0·
Fouls per game13.7·
Red cards this season0·
Shots per game12.5·
Shots faced per game8.7·
Shots on target per game4.3·
Over 2.5 rate

50.0%·

BTTS rate

50.0%·

Clean sheets

50.0%·

Rates this season:Sp BragaSporting CP

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sp Braga win1.54
Draw4.67
Sporting CP win7.35
Both teams to score2.08

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.88
Over 3.5 goals3.23
Sp Braga most1.54
Sporting CP most7.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.53
Over 8.5 corners1.87
Over 9.5 corners2.37
Over 10.5 corners3.14
Sp Braga most1.81
Sporting CP most2.90

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.41
Over 4.5 cards1.90
Over 5.5 cards2.84
Sp Braga most2.99
Sporting CP most2.08

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.43
Sp Braga most1.79
Sporting CP most3.19

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.88
Over 24.5 shots2.45
Over 26.5 shots3.35
Over 28.5 shots4.85
Sp Braga most1.64
Sporting CP most3.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.47
Over 24.5 fouls1.81
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 53.1% Over 24.5 40.9% Over 26.5 29.9% Over 28.5 20.6%
Most: Sp Braga 60.9% Most: Sporting CP 33.2%
Sp Braga Over 13.2 41.6% Sporting CP Over 13.2 23.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.7% Over 7.5 53.5% Over 8.5 40.6% Over 9.5 29.2%
Most: Sp Braga 55.8% Most: Sporting CP 31.3%
Sp Braga Over 4.2 45.6% Sporting CP Over 4.2 28.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.9% Over 3.5 70.9% Over 4.5 52.7%
Most: Sp Braga 33.4% Most: Sporting CP 48.2%
Sp Braga Over 1.8 64.5% Sporting CP Over 1.8 73.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Sp Braga clean sheet 44.1%
Sporting CP clean sheet 13.5%
Sp Braga win to nil 37.6%
Sporting CP win to nil 7.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 65.0% draw 21.4% away 13.6%
double_chance
1X 86.4% 12 78.6% X2 35.0%
dnb
home 82.7% away 17.3%
btts
yes 48.2% no 51.8%
clean_sheet
home 44.9% away 13.5%
win_to_nil
home 38.3% away 7.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.3% home_by_2 20.1% home_by_3plus 20.6%
away_by_1 9.5% away_by_2 3.2% away_by_3plus 0.9%
correct_score
0-0 6.5% 0-1 4.4% 0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 11.6% 1-1 10.2% 1-2 3.9%
1-3 1.0% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 12.1% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 8.1% 3-1 6.5% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 4.1% 4-1 3.3% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.6% 5-1 1.3% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 77.5%
under_1.5 22.5% over_2.5 53.2% under_2.5 46.8%
over_3.5 30.9% under_3.5 69.1% over_4.5 15.3%
under_4.5 84.7% over_5.5 6.6% under_5.5 93.4%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 86.5% under_0.5 13.5% over_1.5 59.5%
under_1.5 40.5% over_2.5 32.5% under_2.5 67.6%
team_away
over_0.5 55.2% under_0.5 44.9% over_1.5 19.2%
under_1.5 80.8% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
most
home 65.0% draw 21.4% away 13.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.6% away_+2.5 79.4% home_-1.5 40.7%
away_+1.5 59.4% home_-0.5 65.0% away_+0.5 35.0%
home_+0.5 86.4% away_-0.5 13.6% home_+1.5 95.9%
away_-1.5 4.2% home_+2.5 99.1% away_-2.5 0.9%
total_exact
exact_0 6.5% exact_1 16.0% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.6% exact_5 8.8%
exact_6 4.1% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.7% draw 39.4% away 19.0%
total
over_0.5 72.1% under_0.5 28.0% over_1.5 36.4%
under_1.5 63.6% over_2.5 13.7% under_2.5 86.3%
btts
yes 20.4% no 79.6%
total_exact
exact_0 28.0% exact_1 35.6% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 9.7% exact_4plus 4.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.6% draw 37.0% away 21.4%
total
over_0.5 75.9% under_0.5 24.1% over_1.5 41.6%
under_1.5 58.4% over_2.5 17.2% under_2.5 82.8%
btts
yes 24.5% no 75.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.2% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.5%
D/H 16.4% D/D 14.6% D/A 8.4%
A/H 2.4% A/D 4.4% A/A 12.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.3% under_7.5 34.7% over_8.5 53.6%
under_8.5 46.4% over_9.5 42.2% under_9.5 57.8%
over_10.5 31.8% under_10.5 68.2% over_11.5 23.0%
under_11.5 77.0% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.3% under_3.5 31.8% over_4.5 53.4%
under_4.5 46.6% over_5.5 39.3% under_5.5 60.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.4% under_3.5 46.6% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 24.4% under_5.5 75.6%
most
home 55.3% draw 10.3% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.6% away_+3.5 74.5% home_-1.5 44.7%
away_+1.5 55.4% home_-0.5 55.3% away_+0.5 44.7%
home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4% home_+1.5 74.8%
away_-1.5 25.2% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 53.1% under_22.5 46.9% over_24.5 40.9%
under_24.5 59.1% over_26.5 29.8% under_26.5 70.2%
over_28.5 20.6% under_28.5 79.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.1% under_10.5 33.9% over_12.5 49.5%
under_12.5 50.5% over_14.5 34.1% under_14.5 65.9%
team_away
over_10.5 46.7% under_10.5 53.3% over_12.5 29.9%
under_12.5 70.1% over_14.5 17.4% under_14.5 82.6%
most
home 60.9% draw 5.9% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.1% away_+4.5 63.9% home_-2.5 48.4%
away_+2.5 51.6% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.1%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+2.5 77.4%
away_-2.5 22.6% home_+4.5 85.7% away_-4.5 14.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.7% under_6.5 33.3% over_7.5 53.5%
under_7.5 46.5% over_8.5 40.6% under_8.5 59.4%
over_9.5 29.2% under_9.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 45.6%
under_4.5 54.4% over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
team_away
over_3.5 45.8% under_3.5 54.2% over_4.5 28.3%
under_4.5 71.7% over_5.5 15.7% under_5.5 84.3%
most
home 55.8% draw 12.9% away 31.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.9% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 55.8%
away_+0.5 44.2% home_+0.5 68.7% away_-0.5 31.4%
home_+2.5 87.8% away_-2.5 12.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.9% under_2.5 14.1% over_3.5 70.9%
under_3.5 29.1% over_4.5 52.7% under_4.5 47.3%
over_5.5 35.3% under_5.5 64.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.6% under_1.5 35.4% over_2.5 37.8%
under_2.5 62.3%
team_away
over_1.5 73.6% under_1.5 26.4% over_2.5 48.6%
under_2.5 51.4%
most
home 33.4% draw 18.4% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.4% away_+1.5 81.6% home_-0.5 33.4%
away_+0.5 66.6% home_+0.5 51.8% away_-0.5 48.2%
home_+1.5 69.7% away_-1.5 30.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.1% under_20.5 20.8% over_22.5 68.0%
under_22.5 32.0% over_24.5 55.3% under_24.5 44.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.9% under_9.5 22.1% over_11.5 61.0%
under_11.5 39.0% over_13.5 43.1% under_13.5 57.0%
team_away
over_9.5 75.1% under_9.5 24.9% over_11.5 57.4%
under_11.5 42.6% over_13.5 39.3% under_13.5 60.7%
most
home 49.4% draw 6.5% away 44.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.7% away_+3.5 69.3% home_-0.5 49.4%
away_+0.5 50.6% home_+2.5 68.3% away_-2.5 31.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
home
yes 8.3% no 91.8%
away
yes 9.7% no 90.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sp Braga predictions · Sporting CP predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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