Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen prediction & probabilities (2026-10-10)

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Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Ajax

DWLWW

Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1020:00UK
N.E.C. Nijmegen
Model’s top convictions

88%

Ajax or draw

88%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Ajax71.1%

Win probability · fair 1.41

Top signals

Ajax or drawVery likely88.0%Fair 1.14
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5 goalsLikely69.1%Fair 1.45

Model read

"When model and market disagree on Ajax, that gap is the story." Ajax go into this Eredivisie meeting with N.E.C. Nijmegen on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 71%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 69% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. As a promoted side, N.E.C. Nijmegen carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.6%@ 2.29
Over 11.5 corners34.7%@ 2.88
Medium risk

Both teams to score58.4%@ 1.71
Over 9.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Random finds

2-0 correct score9.4%@ 10.67
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.78
3-0 correct score8.1%@ 12.42

Model vs market

Ajax

71.1%

Draw

16.9%

Nijmegen

12.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5Likely69.1%Fair 1.45
BTTS · YesClose call58.4%Fair 1.71

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.3%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.6%Fair 2.29
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.7%Fair 2.88
Most cornersAjax57.7%N.E.C. Nijmegen32.5%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.9%Fair 1.34
Over 24.5 shotsLikely64.9%Fair 1.54
Over 26.5 shotsClose call53.9%Fair 1.85
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely42.9%Fair 2.33

Recent shot volume

Ajax23.3 taken10.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.587.5%2.569.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.569.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AjaxDWLWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AjaxN.E.C. Nijmegen
League position#5 of 23#22 of 23
Record W-D-L4-2-10-0-1
Current streakD1L1
Points per game2.00·
Record, home vs away1-2-10-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.25·
Goals scored per game3.00·
Goals conceded per game1.29·
Scored, home vs away2.50·
Conceded, home vs away2.00·
1st half goals per game1.17·
2nd half goals per game2.00·
Corners won per game7.8·
Cards per game2.0·
Fouls per game9.2·
Red cards this season0·
Shots per game23.3·
Shots faced per game10.5·
Shots on target per game8.0·
Over 2.5 rate

85.7%·

BTTS rate

71.4%·

Clean sheets

28.6%·

Rates this season:AjaxN.E.C. Nijmegen

League averages this season: 3.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 77% · BTTS in 69%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ajax win1.41
Draw5.92
N.E.C. Nijmegen win8.33
Both teams to score1.71

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.45
Over 3.5 goals2.09
Over 4.5 goals3.48
Ajax most1.41
N.E.C. Nijmegen most8.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.79
Over 10.5 corners2.26
Ajax most1.73
N.E.C. Nijmegen most3.07

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.71
Over 3.5 cards2.73
Over 4.5 cards5.06
Over 5.5 cards10.70
Ajax most3.23
N.E.C. Nijmegen most2.19

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.74
Ajax most1.82
N.E.C. Nijmegen most2.91

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.34
Over 24.5 shots1.54
Over 26.5 shots1.85
Over 28.5 shots2.33
Ajax most1.62
N.E.C. Nijmegen most3.02

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.98
Over 22.5 fouls2.82
Over 24.5 fouls4.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 74.9% Over 24.5 64.9% Over 26.5 53.9% Over 28.5 42.9%
Most: Ajax 61.7% Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 33.1%
Ajax Over 13.2 59.5% N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 13.2 38.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.8% Over 7.5 77.7% Over 8.5 68.0% Over 9.5 57.5%
Most: Ajax 55.0% Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 34.4%
Ajax Over 4.2 63.7% N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 4.2 49.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 58.6% Over 3.5 36.6% Over 4.5 19.8%
Most: Ajax 30.9% Most: N.E.C. Nijmegen 45.6%
Ajax Over 1.8 39.2% N.E.C. Nijmegen Over 1.8 50.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Ajax clean sheet 35.4%
N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet 7.6%
Ajax win to nil 32.2%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win to nil 4.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 71.1% draw 16.9% away 12.0%
double_chance
1X 88.0% 12 83.1% X2 28.9%
dnb
home 85.6% away 14.5%
btts
yes 58.4% no 41.6%
clean_sheet
home 37.1% away 7.6%
win_to_nil
home 34.0% away 4.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 20.3% home_by_3plus 29.7%
away_by_1 7.9% away_by_2 3.0% away_by_3plus 1.1%
correct_score
0-0 3.2% 0-1 2.4% 0-2 1.4%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 6.9% 1-1 7.6% 1-2 3.6%
1-3 1.2% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.4% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 8.1% 3-1 8.0% 3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 5.2% 4-1 5.1% 4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.7% 5-1 2.6% 5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 4.8%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 9.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.8% under_0.5 3.2% over_1.5 87.5%
under_1.5 12.5% over_2.5 69.1% under_2.5 30.9%
over_3.5 47.8% under_3.5 52.2% over_4.5 28.7%
under_4.5 71.3% over_5.5 15.1% under_5.5 84.9%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 92.4% under_0.5 7.6% over_1.5 72.8%
under_1.5 27.2% over_2.5 47.5% under_2.5 52.5%
team_away
over_0.5 62.9% under_0.5 37.1% over_1.5 26.1%
under_1.5 73.9% over_2.5 7.9% under_2.5 92.1%
most
home 71.1% draw 16.9% away 12.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.7% away_+2.5 70.4% home_-1.5 50.0%
away_+1.5 50.0% home_-0.5 71.1% away_+0.5 28.9%
home_+0.5 88.0% away_-0.5 12.0% home_+1.5 95.9%
away_-1.5 4.1% home_+2.5 98.9% away_-2.5 1.1%
total_exact
exact_0 3.2% exact_1 9.4% exact_2 18.3%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 19.1% exact_5 13.6%
exact_6 8.1% exact_7plus 7.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 50.1% draw 34.1% away 15.9%
total
over_0.5 77.9% under_0.5 22.1% over_1.5 44.6%
under_1.5 55.4% over_2.5 19.4% under_2.5 80.6%
btts
yes 23.9% no 76.1%
total_exact
exact_0 22.1% exact_1 33.3% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 12.7% exact_4plus 6.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.0% draw 31.3% away 23.7%
total
over_0.5 84.5% under_0.5 15.5% over_1.5 55.7%
under_1.5 44.3% over_2.5 28.7% under_2.5 71.3%
btts
yes 35.3% no 64.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 42.0% H/D 5.8% H/A 2.3%
D/H 15.3% D/D 10.6% D/A 8.1%
A/H 2.6% A/D 3.7% A/A 9.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.8% under_7.5 22.2% over_8.5 67.4%
under_8.5 32.6% over_9.5 55.9% under_9.5 44.1%
over_10.5 44.3% under_10.5 55.7% over_11.5 33.6%
under_11.5 66.4% over_12.5 24.3% under_12.5 75.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.6% under_3.5 22.4% over_4.5 64.1%
under_4.5 35.9% over_5.5 49.8% under_5.5 50.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.8% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.3% under_5.5 69.7%
most
home 57.9% draw 9.6% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.0% away_+3.5 71.0% home_-1.5 47.8%
away_+1.5 52.2% home_-0.5 57.9% away_+0.5 42.1%
home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6% home_+1.5 76.0%
away_-1.5 24.0% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.9% under_22.5 25.1% over_24.5 64.9%
under_24.5 35.1% over_26.5 53.9% under_26.5 46.1%
over_28.5 42.9% under_28.5 57.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.7% under_10.5 20.3% over_12.5 66.7%
under_12.5 33.3% over_14.5 52.3% under_14.5 47.8%
team_away
over_10.5 62.7% under_10.5 37.3% over_12.5 46.4%
under_12.5 53.6% over_14.5 31.7% under_14.5 68.3%
most
home 61.7% draw 5.2% away 33.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.5% away_+4.5 60.5% home_-2.5 50.6%
away_+2.5 49.4% home_-0.5 61.7% away_+0.5 38.3%
home_+0.5 66.9% away_-0.5 33.1% home_+2.5 76.3%
away_-2.5 23.7% home_+4.5 84.1% away_-4.5 15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.8% under_6.5 14.2% over_7.5 77.7%
under_7.5 22.3% over_8.5 68.0% under_8.5 32.0%
over_9.5 57.5% under_9.5 42.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.6% under_3.5 22.5% over_4.5 63.7%
under_4.5 36.3% over_5.5 49.3% under_5.5 50.7%
team_away
over_3.5 65.8% under_3.5 34.2% over_4.5 49.4%
under_4.5 50.6% over_5.5 34.4% under_5.5 65.6%
most
home 55.0% draw 10.6% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.8% away_+2.5 66.2% home_-0.5 55.0%
away_+0.5 45.0% home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4%
home_+2.5 82.9% away_-2.5 17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 58.6% under_2.5 41.4% over_3.5 36.6%
under_3.5 63.4% over_4.5 19.8% under_4.5 80.2%
over_5.5 9.4% under_5.5 90.6%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 39.2% under_1.5 60.8% over_2.5 15.9%
under_2.5 84.1%
team_away
over_1.5 50.3% under_1.5 49.7% over_2.5 24.5%
under_2.5 75.5%
most
home 31.0% draw 23.5% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.8% away_+1.5 86.2% home_-0.5 31.0%
away_+0.5 69.1% home_+0.5 54.4% away_-0.5 45.6%
home_+1.5 75.7% away_-1.5 24.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 50.5% under_20.5 49.5% over_22.5 35.4%
under_22.5 64.6% over_24.5 22.7% under_24.5 77.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 49.5% under_9.5 50.5% over_11.5 28.4%
under_11.5 71.6% over_13.5 13.7% under_13.5 86.3%
team_away
over_9.5 64.6% under_9.5 35.4% over_11.5 43.2%
under_11.5 56.8% over_13.5 24.9% under_13.5 75.1%
most
home 35.4% draw 7.6% away 57.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 16.5% away_+3.5 83.5% home_-0.5 35.4%
away_+0.5 64.6% home_+2.5 58.8% away_-2.5 41.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.4% no 85.6%
home
yes 4.6% no 95.5%
away
yes 10.4% no 89.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ajax predictions · N.E.C. Nijmegen predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieAjaxN.E.C. NijmegenTrack record