Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Marseille53.2%
Win probability · fair 1.88
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.7%Fair 1.22
Draw or MarseilleVery likely76.6%Fair 1.31
Both teams to scoreClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Marseille heavy favourites at 53% when Troyes meet Marseille in the Ligue 1 on 11 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Troyes, 1 draws and 4 for Marseille, averaging 2.8 goals a game. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Troyes against W3 D0 L3 for Marseille. As a promoted side, Troyes carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. For shots markets, Adrien Monfray is the obvious watch at 0.2 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Troyes or draw46.8%@ 2.13
Over 9.5 corners46.1%@ 2.17
Over 10.5 corners36.0%@ 2.78
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals59.3%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners57.0%@ 1.75
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.13
1-2 correct score9.7%@ 10.29
0-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.36
Model vs market
Troyes
23.4%
Draw
23.4%
Marseille
53.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.7%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Close call59.3%Fair 1.69
BTTS · YesClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.0%Fair 1.75
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.0%Fair 2.78
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.1%Fair 3.69
Most cornersTroyes52.7%Marseille36.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.8%Fair 1.50
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.6%Fair 1.83
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.9%Fair 3.24
Recent shot volume
Troyes11.3 taken15.5 faced
Marseille14.8 taken15.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Troyes (4 games)
5.8 / 8.0
Marseille (4 games)
7.0 / 6.5
Totals line guide
0.5·1.581.7%2.559.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
TroyesDDWLL
MarseilleWWLLL
Last 5 meetings: Troyes 0 · 1 draws · Marseille 4 · 2.8 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Adrien MonfrayTroyes · key player
To score0.0%·
1+ on target18.1%5.52
2+ shots33.7%2.97
Shots/90 1.2SoT/90 0.2Goals/90 0
Amine GouiriMarseille · key player
To score35.2%2.84
1+ on target65.1%1.54
2+ shots64.0%1.56
Shots/90 3.06SoT/90 1.48Goals/90 0.61
Dermane KarimTroyes · in form
To score2.7%37.04
1+ on target8.3%12.05
2+ shots13.8%7.25
Shots/90 1.2SoT/90 0.16Goals/90 0.05
Igor PaixãoMarseille · in form
To score16.5%6.06
1+ on target53.2%1.88
2+ shots55.2%1.81
Shots/90 2.46SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.24
Michel DiazTroyes · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target7.7%12.99
2+ shots6.2%16.13
Shots/90 0.45SoT/90 0.09Goals/90 0
Amine HaritMarseille · in form
To score7.5%13.33
1+ on target31.8%3.14
2+ shots20.9%4.78
Shots/90 1.75SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.16
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Troyes win4.13
Draw4.22
Marseille win1.92
Both teams to score1.67
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.71
Troyes most4.13
Marseille most1.92
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.69
Over 9.5 corners2.13
Over 10.5 corners2.82
Troyes most1.89
Marseille most2.76
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.20
Over 4.5 cards3.74
Over 5.5 cards7.28
Troyes most3.04
Marseille most2.22
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.48
Over 8.5 SoT1.81
Over 9.5 SoT2.31
Troyes most2.21
Marseille most2.36
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.50
Over 24.5 shots1.83
Over 26.5 shots2.37
Over 28.5 shots3.24
Troyes most1.77
Marseille most2.68
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.43
Over 22.5 fouls1.79
Over 24.5 fouls2.40
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.8%
Over 24.5
54.6%
Over 26.5
42.2%
Over 28.5
30.9%
Most: Troyes
56.6%
Most: Marseille
37.3%
Troyes Over 13.2
47.8%
Marseille Over 13.2
34.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
78.3%
Over 7.5
67.4%
Over 8.5
55.4%
Over 9.5
43.3%
Most: Troyes
45.3%
Most: Marseille
42.4%
Troyes Over 4.2
48.5%
Marseille Over 4.2
46.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
67.2%
Over 3.5
45.5%
Over 4.5
26.7%
Most: Troyes
32.9%
Most: Marseille
45.0%
Troyes Over 1.8
47.0%
Marseille Over 1.8
56.0%
Troyes: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Adrien Monfray
1.2
0.2
0
18.1%
33.7%
0.0%
Dermane Karim
1.2
0.16
0.05
8.3%
13.8%
2.7%
Michel Diaz
0.45
0.09
0
7.7%
6.2%
0.0%
Patrick Beach
0
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Anis Ouzenadji
0.2
0
0
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
Marseille: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Amine Gouiri
3.06
1.48
0.61
65.1%
64.0%
35.2%
Igor Paixão
2.46
1.01
0.24
53.2%
55.2%
16.5%
Amine Harit
1.75
0.79
0.16
31.8%
20.9%
7.5%
Neal Maupay
1.67
0.76
0.24
35.7%
25.3%
13.0%
Angel Gomes
1.31
0.46
0.15
25.3%
20.2%
9.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Troyes clean sheet
15.5%
Marseille clean sheet
29.5%
Troyes win to nil
10.4%
Marseille win to nil
24.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
24.2%
draw
23.7%
away
52.1%
double_chance
1X
47.9%
12
76.3%
X2
75.8%
dnb
home
31.7%
away
68.3%
btts
yes
59.8%
no
40.2%
clean_sheet
home
15.5%
away
29.8%
win_to_nil
home
10.4%
away
24.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
14.3%
home_by_2
6.8%
home_by_3plus
3.2%
away_by_1
22.2%
away_by_2
16.1%
away_by_3plus
13.9%
correct_score
0-0
5.1%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
8.0%
0-3
5.0%
0-4
2.3%
0-5
0.9%
1-0
5.1%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
1-3
6.0%
1-4
2.8%
1-5
1.1%
2-0
3.4%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
2-3
3.7%
2-4
1.7%
2-5
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
3-1
2.6%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-0
0.4%
4-1
0.8%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.9%
under_0.5
5.1%
over_1.5
81.7%
under_1.5
18.3%
over_2.5
59.3%
under_2.5
40.7%
over_3.5
36.9%
under_3.5
63.1%
over_4.5
19.7%
under_4.5
80.3%
over_5.5
9.2%
under_5.5
90.8%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
70.2%
under_0.5
29.8%
over_1.5
34.1%
under_1.5
65.9%
over_2.5
12.3%
under_2.5
87.7%
team_away
over_0.5
84.5%
under_0.5
15.5%
over_1.5
55.6%
under_1.5
44.4%
over_2.5
28.6%
under_2.5
71.4%
most
home
24.2%
draw
23.7%
away
52.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
3.2%
away_+2.5
96.9%
home_-1.5
9.9%
away_+1.5
90.1%
home_-0.5
24.2%
away_+0.5
75.8%
home_+0.5
47.9%
away_-0.5
52.1%
home_+1.5
70.1%
away_-1.5
29.9%
home_+2.5
86.2%
away_-2.5
13.9%
total_exact
exact_0
5.1%
exact_1
13.2%
exact_2
22.4%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
17.2%
exact_5
10.6%
exact_6
5.4%
exact_7plus
3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.1%
draw
40.8%
away
32.1%
total
over_0.5
71.5%
under_0.5
28.5%
over_1.5
35.7%
under_1.5
64.3%
over_2.5
13.3%
under_2.5
86.7%
btts
yes
21.7%
no
78.4%
total_exact
exact_0
28.5%
exact_1
35.8%
exact_2
22.5%
exact_3
9.4%
exact_4plus
3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
21.1%
draw
29.5%
away
49.4%
total
over_0.5
86.2%
under_0.5
13.8%
over_1.5
58.8%
under_1.5
41.2%
over_2.5
31.8%
under_2.5
68.2%
btts
yes
36.7%
no
63.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
15.7%
H/D
6.3%
H/A
5.1%
D/H
8.6%
D/D
12.0%
D/A
20.2%
A/H
1.5%
A/D
3.8%
A/A
26.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
71.1%
under_7.5
29.0%
over_8.5
59.2%
under_8.5
40.8%
over_9.5
46.9%
under_9.5
53.1%
over_10.5
35.4%
under_10.5
64.6%
over_11.5
25.4%
under_11.5
74.6%
over_12.5
17.4%
under_12.5
82.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.4%
under_3.5
28.6%
over_4.5
55.7%
under_4.5
44.4%
over_5.5
40.3%
under_5.5
59.7%
team_away
over_3.5
60.2%
under_3.5
39.8%
over_4.5
43.0%
under_4.5
57.0%
over_5.5
28.3%
under_5.5
71.7%
most
home
52.9%
draw
10.9%
away
36.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.5%
away_+3.5
77.6%
home_-1.5
41.8%
away_+1.5
58.2%
home_-0.5
52.9%
away_+0.5
47.1%
home_+0.5
63.7%
away_-0.5
36.3%
home_+1.5
73.6%
away_-1.5
26.4%
home_+3.5
88.2%
away_-3.5
11.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.8%
under_22.5
33.2%
over_24.5
54.6%
under_24.5
45.4%
over_26.5
42.2%
under_26.5
57.8%
over_28.5
30.9%
under_28.5
69.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.8%
under_10.5
27.2%
over_12.5
56.3%
under_12.5
43.7%
over_14.5
39.7%
under_14.5
60.3%
team_away
over_10.5
60.6%
under_10.5
39.4%
over_12.5
42.4%
under_12.5
57.6%
over_14.5
26.8%
under_14.5
73.2%
most
home
56.6%
draw
6.1%
away
37.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
32.0%
away_+4.5
68.0%
home_-2.5
44.0%
away_+2.5
56.0%
home_-0.5
56.6%
away_+0.5
43.4%
home_+0.5
62.7%
away_-0.5
37.3%
home_+2.5
73.9%
away_-2.5
26.1%
home_+4.5
83.1%
away_-4.5
17.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
78.3%
under_6.5
21.7%
over_7.5
67.4%
under_7.5
32.6%
over_8.5
55.4%
under_8.5
44.7%
over_9.5
43.3%
under_9.5
56.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.8%
under_3.5
34.2%
over_4.5
48.5%
under_4.5
51.5%
over_5.5
32.8%
under_5.5
67.2%
team_away
over_3.5
63.9%
under_3.5
36.1%
over_4.5
46.4%
under_4.5
53.6%
over_5.5
30.8%
under_5.5
69.2%
most
home
45.3%
draw
12.4%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
23.1%
away_+2.5
76.9%
home_-0.5
45.3%
away_+0.5
54.7%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+2.5
79.1%
away_-2.5
20.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
67.2%
under_2.5
32.8%
over_3.5
45.5%
under_3.5
54.5%
over_4.5
26.7%
under_4.5
73.3%
over_5.5
13.7%
under_5.5
86.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
47.0%
under_1.5
53.0%
over_2.5
21.2%
under_2.5
78.8%
team_away
over_1.5
56.0%
under_1.5
44.0%
over_2.5
29.0%
under_2.5
71.0%
most
home
32.9%
draw
22.2%
away
45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.8%
away_+1.5
84.2%
home_-0.5
32.9%
away_+0.5
67.1%
home_+0.5
55.1%
away_-0.5
45.0%
home_+1.5
75.3%
away_-1.5
24.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
70.0%
under_20.5
30.0%
over_22.5
56.0%
under_22.5
44.0%
over_24.5
41.7%
under_24.5
58.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
67.9%
under_9.5
32.1%
over_11.5
47.2%
under_11.5
52.8%
over_13.5
28.4%
under_13.5
71.6%
team_away
over_9.5
73.1%
under_9.5
26.9%
over_11.5
53.4%
under_11.5
46.6%
over_13.5
34.1%
under_13.5
65.9%
most
home
42.0%
draw
7.3%
away
50.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.6%
away_+3.5
77.4%
home_-0.5
42.0%
away_+0.5
58.0%
home_+2.5
63.6%
away_-2.5
36.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
11.3%
no
88.7%
home
yes
6.0%
no
94.0%
away
yes
5.6%
no
94.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Troyes
Marseille