Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Crystal Palace37.8%
Win probability · fair 2.65
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Crystal Palace or drawLikely64.9%Fair 1.54
Draw or Nottingham ForestLikely62.3%Fair 1.61
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Crystal Palace at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. • For shots markets, Eddie Nketiah is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. • The run in: Crystal Palace arrive W1 D1 L4, Nottingham Forest W1 D3 L2. On the availability front, Crystal Palace have Disasi suspended, Henderson ruled out, Sosa ruled out, Chadi Riad ruled out. The recent series reads 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 4 draws and 1 for Nottingham Forest over 5 games, 1.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Nottingham Forest win35.1%@ 2.85
Over 11.5 corners31.0%@ 3.23
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners59.6%@ 1.68
Both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87
Under 2.5 goals51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.66
1-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.09
0-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.26
Model vs market
Palace
37.8%
Draw
27.1%
Nott'm Forest
35.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.5%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call53.6%Fair 1.87
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.6%Fair 1.68
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.4%Fair 2.02
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.0%Fair 3.23
Most cornersCrystal Palace52.0%Nottingham Forest37.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.6%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call52.0%Fair 1.92
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.6%Fair 2.46
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.31
Recent shot volume
Crystal Palace10.2 taken16.8 faced
Nottingham Forest16.2 taken11.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Crystal Palace (5 games)
5.4 / 5.2
Nottingham Forest (5 games)
7.4 / 9.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.574.1%2.548.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Crystal PalaceLLWLD
Nottingham ForestLDDWL
Last 5 meetings: Crystal Palace 0 · 4 draws · Nottingham Forest 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Eddie NketiahCrystal Palace · key player
To score11.0%9.09
1+ on target40.0%2.50
2+ shots35.8%2.79
Shots/90 3.45SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.32
Arnaud Kalimuendo MuingaNottingham Forest · key player
To score30.1%3.32
1+ on target57.6%1.74
2+ shots52.4%1.91
Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.48
Ismaila SarrCrystal Palace · in form
To score24.2%4.13
1+ on target53.8%1.86
2+ shots49.5%2.02
Shots/90 1.92SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.32
Liam DelapNottingham Forest · in form
To score18.3%5.46
1+ on target47.4%2.11
2+ shots51.3%1.95
Shots/90 2.73SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.32
Jørgen Strand LarsenCrystal Palace · in form
To score22.2%4.50
1+ on target48.4%2.07
2+ shots39.7%2.52
Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.33
Chris WoodNottingham Forest · in form
To score33.9%2.95
1+ on target51.6%1.94
2+ shots47.9%2.09
Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.52
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Crystal Palace win2.70
Draw3.65
Nottingham Forest win2.82
Both teams to score1.87
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.73
Crystal Palace most2.70
Nottingham Forest most2.82
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.52
Crystal Palace most1.92
Nottingham Forest most2.65
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.05
Over 4.5 cards3.39
Over 5.5 cards6.37
Crystal Palace most2.99
Nottingham Forest most2.23
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT1.98
Over 9.5 SoT2.56
Crystal Palace most2.28
Nottingham Forest most2.28
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Crystal Palace most1.70
Nottingham Forest most2.82
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.71
Over 22.5 fouls2.38
Over 24.5 fouls3.64
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
DisasiCrystal PalaceSuspended0% to play
HendersonCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
SosaCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
Chadi RiadCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
DevennyCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
EsseCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
M.FrançaCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
J.Rak-SakyiCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
CardinesCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
MatetaCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
UcheCrystal PalaceOut0% to play
TomiyasuCrystal PalaceDoubtful75% to play
Edward Nketiah, Cheick DoucoureCrystal PalaceOut
MoratoNottingham ForestOut0% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace14.6%36.2 xG+xA in 4,635 min
Axel DisasiCrystal Palace0.9%2.1 xG+xA in 2,147 min
Chadi RiadCrystal Palace0.3%0.7 xG+xA in 639 min
Dean HendersonCrystal Palace0.1%0.1 xG+xA in 6,570 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.6%
Over 24.5
52.0%
Over 26.5
40.6%
Over 28.5
30.2%
Most: Crystal Palace
58.9%
Most: Nottingham Forest
35.4%
Crystal Palace Over 13.2
48.2%
Nottingham Forest Over 13.2
31.6%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
73.7%
Over 7.5
62.3%
Over 8.5
50.4%
Over 9.5
39.1%
Most: Crystal Palace
43.9%
Most: Nottingham Forest
43.9%
Crystal Palace Over 4.2
43.9%
Nottingham Forest Over 4.2
43.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
69.9%
Over 3.5
48.7%
Over 4.5
29.5%
Most: Crystal Palace
33.5%
Most: Nottingham Forest
44.8%
Crystal Palace Over 1.8
49.5%
Nottingham Forest Over 1.8
57.9%
Crystal Palace: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Eddie Nketiah
3.45
1.4
0.32
40.0%
35.8%
11.0%
Ismaila Sarr
1.92
0.89
0.32
53.8%
49.5%
24.2%
Jørgen Strand Larsen
1.8
0.87
0.33
48.4%
39.7%
22.2%
Evann Guessand
1.73
0.8
0.28
42.4%
33.5%
17.6%
Dwight McNeil
1.72
0.49
0.12
25.8%
28.2%
7.1%
Nottingham Forest: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
2.35
1.15
0.48
57.6%
52.4%
30.1%
Liam Delap
2.73
1.02
0.32
47.4%
51.3%
18.3%
Chris Wood
2.02
0.91
0.52
51.6%
47.9%
33.9%
Igor Jesus
2.7
0.82
0.24
43.5%
56.0%
15.4%
Morgan Gibbs-White
2.11
0.75
0.32
50.7%
59.1%
26.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Crystal Palace clean sheet
27.5%
Nottingham Forest clean sheet
26.7%
Crystal Palace win to nil
19.5%
Nottingham Forest win to nil
18.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
37.1%
draw
27.4%
away
35.5%
double_chance
1X
64.5%
12
72.6%
X2
62.9%
dnb
home
51.1%
away
48.9%
btts
yes
53.6%
no
46.4%
clean_sheet
home
27.6%
away
26.8%
win_to_nil
home
19.6%
away
18.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
20.0%
home_by_2
11.0%
home_by_3plus
6.2%
away_by_1
19.5%
away_by_2
10.4%
away_by_3plus
5.5%
correct_score
0-0
8.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
6.2%
0-3
2.7%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.0%
1-3
3.5%
1-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
6.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.9%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.0%
4-1
1.2%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.0%
under_0.5
8.0%
over_1.5
74.1%
under_1.5
25.9%
over_2.5
48.5%
under_2.5
51.5%
over_3.5
26.8%
under_3.5
73.2%
over_4.5
12.5%
under_4.5
87.5%
over_5.5
5.1%
under_5.5
94.9%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
73.2%
under_0.5
26.8%
over_1.5
38.2%
under_1.5
61.8%
over_2.5
15.0%
under_2.5
85.0%
team_away
over_0.5
72.4%
under_0.5
27.6%
over_1.5
36.9%
under_1.5
63.1%
over_2.5
14.1%
under_2.5
85.9%
most
home
37.1%
draw
27.4%
away
35.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
6.2%
away_+2.5
93.8%
home_-1.5
17.1%
away_+1.5
82.9%
home_-0.5
37.1%
away_+0.5
62.9%
home_+0.5
64.5%
away_-0.5
35.5%
home_+1.5
84.0%
away_-1.5
16.0%
home_+2.5
94.5%
away_-2.5
5.5%
total_exact
exact_0
8.0%
exact_1
17.9%
exact_2
25.6%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.2%
exact_5
7.5%
exact_6
3.3%
exact_7plus
1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
25.0%
draw
44.6%
away
30.5%
total
over_0.5
66.0%
under_0.5
34.0%
over_1.5
29.3%
under_1.5
70.7%
over_2.5
9.5%
under_2.5
90.5%
btts
yes
17.3%
no
82.7%
total_exact
exact_0
34.0%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.8%
exact_3
7.1%
exact_4plus
2.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
30.1%
draw
38.0%
away
31.9%
total
over_0.5
75.8%
under_0.5
24.2%
over_1.5
41.4%
under_1.5
58.6%
over_2.5
17.1%
under_2.5
82.9%
btts
yes
25.8%
no
74.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
18.3%
H/D
4.7%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
13.4%
D/D
16.9%
D/A
14.2%
A/H
2.1%
A/D
5.3%
A/A
23.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.0%
under_7.5
26.1%
over_8.5
62.8%
under_8.5
37.2%
over_9.5
51.1%
under_9.5
48.9%
over_10.5
39.7%
under_10.5
60.3%
over_11.5
29.5%
under_11.5
70.5%
over_12.5
20.9%
under_12.5
79.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.1%
under_3.5
28.0%
over_4.5
57.2%
under_4.5
42.8%
over_5.5
42.6%
under_5.5
57.4%
team_away
over_3.5
62.4%
under_3.5
37.6%
over_4.5
46.1%
under_4.5
53.9%
over_5.5
31.7%
under_5.5
68.3%
most
home
52.1%
draw
10.1%
away
37.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.7%
away_+3.5
76.3%
home_-1.5
41.9%
away_+1.5
58.1%
home_-0.5
52.1%
away_+0.5
47.9%
home_+0.5
62.3%
away_-0.5
37.7%
home_+1.5
71.6%
away_-1.5
28.4%
home_+3.5
86.1%
away_-3.5
13.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.6%
under_22.5
36.4%
over_24.5
52.0%
under_24.5
48.0%
over_26.5
40.6%
under_26.5
59.4%
over_28.5
30.2%
under_28.5
69.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
71.3%
under_10.5
28.7%
over_12.5
56.0%
under_12.5
44.0%
over_14.5
40.8%
under_14.5
59.2%
team_away
over_10.5
55.8%
under_10.5
44.3%
over_12.5
39.0%
under_12.5
61.0%
over_14.5
25.0%
under_14.5
75.0%
most
home
58.9%
draw
5.6%
away
35.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.7%
away_+4.5
64.3%
home_-2.5
47.2%
away_+2.5
52.8%
home_-0.5
58.9%
away_+0.5
41.1%
home_+0.5
64.6%
away_-0.5
35.4%
home_+2.5
74.9%
away_-2.5
25.2%
home_+4.5
83.3%
away_-4.5
16.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
73.7%
under_6.5
26.3%
over_7.5
62.3%
under_7.5
37.7%
over_8.5
50.4%
under_8.5
49.6%
over_9.5
39.1%
under_9.5
60.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
60.7%
under_3.5
39.3%
over_4.5
43.9%
under_4.5
56.1%
over_5.5
29.3%
under_5.5
70.7%
team_away
over_3.5
60.8%
under_3.5
39.3%
over_4.5
43.9%
under_4.5
56.1%
over_5.5
29.3%
under_5.5
70.7%
most
home
43.9%
draw
12.2%
away
43.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.4%
away_+2.5
77.6%
home_-0.5
43.9%
away_+0.5
56.1%
home_+0.5
56.1%
away_-0.5
43.9%
home_+2.5
77.6%
away_-2.5
22.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
69.9%
under_2.5
30.1%
over_3.5
48.7%
under_3.5
51.3%
over_4.5
29.5%
under_4.5
70.5%
over_5.5
15.7%
under_5.5
84.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
49.5%
under_1.5
50.5%
over_2.5
23.3%
under_2.5
76.7%
team_away
over_1.5
57.9%
under_1.5
42.1%
over_2.5
30.9%
under_2.5
69.1%
most
home
33.5%
draw
21.7%
away
44.8%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.5%
away_+1.5
83.5%
home_-0.5
33.5%
away_+0.5
66.5%
home_+0.5
55.2%
away_-0.5
44.8%
home_+1.5
75.0%
away_-1.5
25.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
58.3%
under_20.5
41.7%
over_22.5
42.1%
under_22.5
58.0%
over_24.5
27.5%
under_24.5
72.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
62.2%
under_9.5
37.8%
over_11.5
39.1%
under_11.5
60.9%
over_13.5
20.4%
under_13.5
79.6%
team_away
over_9.5
64.7%
under_9.5
35.3%
over_11.5
41.8%
under_11.5
58.2%
over_13.5
22.5%
under_13.5
77.5%
most
home
44.0%
draw
8.3%
away
47.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.0%
away_+3.5
78.0%
home_-0.5
44.0%
away_+0.5
56.0%
home_+2.5
68.1%
away_-2.5
31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
6.1%
no
93.9%
home
yes
4.4%
no
95.6%
away
yes
1.8%
no
98.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest