Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Brighton43.6%
Win probability · fair 2.29
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.2%Fair 1.30
Draw or BrightonLikely69.7%Fair 1.44
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Brighton: 44% is the model's line for this Premier League meeting on 10 October 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. 2) The recent series reads 0 wins for Sunderland, 1 draws and 1 for Brighton over 2 games, 0.5 goals on average. 3) Wilson Isidor drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. The run in: Sunderland arrive W2 D1 L3, Brighton W3 D1 L2. Team news worth noting: Sunderland have Patterson ruled out, Seelt ruled out, Hjelde ruled out, Masuaku ruled out. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Brighton win43.6%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners39.9%@ 2.51
Over 11.5 corners31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk
Both teams to score56.4%@ 1.77
Sunderland or draw56.4%@ 1.77
Over 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.4%@ 8.06
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 11.00
0-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.21
Model vs market
Sunderland
30.4%
Draw
26.0%
Brighton
43.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.2%Fair 1.30
Over 2.5Close call52.7%Fair 1.90
BTTS · YesClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.6%Fair 2.02
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.9%Fair 2.51
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.2%Fair 3.21
Most cornersSunderland48.8%Brighton40.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely64.3%Fair 1.55
Over 24.5 shotsClose call52.8%Fair 1.89
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.4%Fair 2.41
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.0%Fair 3.23
Recent shot volume
Sunderland14.3 taken11.7 faced
Brighton18.0 taken11.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Sunderland (5 games)
5.2 / 8.0
Brighton (5 games)
7.4 / 11.6
Totals line guide
0.5·1.577.2%2.552.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.2%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
SunderlandLWDLL
BrightonWLDWW
Last 2 meetings: Sunderland 0 · 1 draws · Brighton 1 · 0.5 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Wilson IsidorSunderland · key player
To score17.3%5.78
1+ on target38.4%2.60
2+ shots37.2%2.69
Shots/90 3.48SoT/90 1.3Goals/90 0.51
Charalampos KostoulasBrighton · key player
To score14.2%7.04
1+ on target39.3%2.54
2+ shots37.6%2.66
Shots/90 4.61SoT/90 1.76Goals/90 0.54
Malick FofanaSunderland · in form
To score17.3%5.78
1+ on target46.0%2.17
2+ shots37.6%2.66
Shots/90 2.14SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.31
Ibrahim OsmanBrighton · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target29.6%3.38
2+ shots32.8%3.05
Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0
Brian BrobbeySunderland · in form
To score24.1%4.15
1+ on target44.4%2.25
2+ shots37.5%2.67
Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.38
Georginio RutterBrighton · in form
To score12.9%7.75
1+ on target34.7%2.88
2+ shots44.5%2.25
Shots/90 2.3SoT/90 0.65Goals/90 0.21
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Sunderland win3.31
Draw3.82
Brighton win2.29
Both teams to score1.77
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Sunderland most3.31
Brighton most2.29
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Sunderland most2.04
Brighton most2.45
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.68
Over 5.5 cards4.63
Sunderland most2.94
Brighton most2.19
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.45
Over 7.5 SoT1.75
Over 8.5 SoT2.23
Over 9.5 SoT2.97
Sunderland most2.21
Brighton most2.37
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.23
Sunderland most1.80
Brighton most2.59
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.92
Over 24.5 fouls2.73
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
PattersonSunderlandOut0% to play
SeeltSunderlandOut0% to play
HjeldeSunderlandOut0% to play
MasuakuSunderlandOut0% to play
DiarraSunderlandOut0% to play
AdingraSunderlandOut0% to play
MundleSunderlandOut0% to play
Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Nordi Mukiele, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le FeeSunderlandOut
DunkBrightonDoubtful75% to play
IgorBrightonOut0% to play
MitomaBrightonOut0% to play
MintehBrightonOut0% to play
HinshelwoodBrightonOut0% to play
BuonanotteBrightonOut0% to play
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Habib DiarraSunderland10.3%12.7 xG+xA in 3,403 min
Romaine MundleSunderlandnot enough minutes to weigh1.0 xG+xA in 371 min
Jack HinshelwoodBrighton9.7%13.1 xG+xA in 3,358 min
Mats WiefferBrighton5.2%7.0 xG+xA in 2,985 min
Zadok YohannaBrightonnot enough minutes to weigh0.0 xG+xA in 7 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
64.3%
Over 24.5
52.8%
Over 26.5
41.5%
Over 28.5
31.0%
Most: Sunderland
55.7%
Most: Brighton
38.6%
Sunderland Over 13.2
46.5%
Brighton Over 13.2
34.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.1%
Over 7.5
57.0%
Over 8.5
44.8%
Over 9.5
33.7%
Most: Sunderland
45.2%
Most: Brighton
42.3%
Sunderland Over 4.2
41.0%
Brighton Over 4.2
38.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
76.3%
Over 3.5
56.8%
Over 4.5
37.3%
Most: Sunderland
34.0%
Most: Brighton
45.6%
Sunderland Over 1.8
55.3%
Brighton Over 1.8
63.4%
Sunderland: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Wilson Isidor
3.48
1.3
0.51
38.4%
37.2%
17.3%
Malick Fofana
2.14
1.01
0.31
46.0%
37.6%
17.3%
Brian Brobbey
1.8
0.81
0.38
44.4%
37.5%
24.1%
Chemsdine Talbi
1.42
0.51
0.23
26.6%
21.4%
13.0%
Nilson Angulo
1.32
0.48
0.12
26.5%
20.8%
7.4%
Brighton: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Charalampos Kostoulas
4.61
1.76
0.54
39.3%
37.6%
14.2%
Ibrahim Osman
2.71
0.81
0
29.6%
32.8%
0.0%
Georginio Rutter
2.3
0.65
0.21
34.7%
44.5%
12.9%
Diego Gómez
1.88
0.58
0.17
31.5%
34.7%
10.5%
Matt O'Riley
1.64
0.58
0.19
23.9%
18.1%
8.5%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Sunderland clean sheet
21.4%
Brighton clean sheet
28.7%
Sunderland win to nil
14.6%
Brighton win to nil
22.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
30.2%
draw
26.2%
away
43.7%
double_chance
1X
56.3%
12
73.8%
X2
69.8%
dnb
home
40.9%
away
59.1%
btts
yes
56.4%
no
43.6%
clean_sheet
home
21.5%
away
28.9%
win_to_nil
home
14.7%
away
22.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.2%
home_by_2
8.7%
home_by_3plus
4.3%
away_by_1
21.4%
away_by_2
13.3%
away_by_3plus
8.9%
correct_score
0-0
6.8%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
7.3%
0-3
3.8%
0-4
1.5%
0-5
0.5%
1-0
7.1%
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.1%
1-3
4.7%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
4.8%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
5.6%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
2.0%
3-1
3.1%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.6%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.7%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.2%
under_0.5
6.8%
over_1.5
77.2%
under_1.5
22.8%
over_2.5
52.7%
under_2.5
47.3%
over_3.5
30.5%
under_3.5
69.5%
over_4.5
15.0%
under_4.5
85.0%
over_5.5
6.4%
under_5.5
93.6%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
71.1%
under_0.5
28.9%
over_1.5
35.3%
under_1.5
64.7%
over_2.5
13.0%
under_2.5
87.0%
team_away
over_0.5
78.5%
under_0.5
21.5%
over_1.5
45.6%
under_1.5
54.4%
over_2.5
20.2%
under_2.5
79.8%
most
home
30.2%
draw
26.2%
away
43.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.3%
away_+2.5
95.7%
home_-1.5
13.0%
away_+1.5
87.0%
home_-0.5
30.2%
away_+0.5
69.8%
home_+0.5
56.3%
away_-0.5
43.7%
home_+1.5
77.8%
away_-1.5
22.2%
home_+2.5
91.1%
away_-2.5
8.9%
total_exact
exact_0
6.8%
exact_1
16.0%
exact_2
24.5%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
15.5%
exact_5
8.6%
exact_6
4.0%
exact_7plus
2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
26.7%
draw
40.2%
away
33.1%
total
over_0.5
72.4%
under_0.5
27.7%
over_1.5
36.8%
under_1.5
63.2%
over_2.5
14.0%
under_2.5
86.0%
btts
yes
22.4%
no
77.6%
total_exact
exact_0
27.7%
exact_1
35.5%
exact_2
22.9%
exact_3
9.8%
exact_4plus
4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
21.5%
draw
35.6%
away
42.9%
total
over_0.5
78.0%
under_0.5
22.1%
over_1.5
44.6%
under_1.5
55.4%
over_2.5
19.4%
under_2.5
80.6%
btts
yes
26.5%
no
73.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.2%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
3.5%
D/H
8.7%
D/D
14.3%
D/A
17.2%
A/H
1.3%
A/D
4.2%
A/A
27.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.1%
under_7.5
25.9%
over_8.5
63.0%
under_8.5
37.0%
over_9.5
51.3%
under_9.5
48.7%
over_10.5
39.9%
under_10.5
60.1%
over_11.5
29.6%
under_11.5
70.4%
over_12.5
21.1%
under_12.5
78.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.2%
under_3.5
29.8%
over_4.5
55.0%
under_4.5
45.0%
over_5.5
40.3%
under_5.5
59.7%
team_away
over_3.5
64.9%
under_3.5
35.2%
over_4.5
48.8%
under_4.5
51.2%
over_5.5
34.2%
under_5.5
65.8%
most
home
48.9%
draw
10.2%
away
40.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.4%
away_+3.5
78.6%
home_-1.5
38.8%
away_+1.5
61.2%
home_-0.5
48.9%
away_+0.5
51.1%
home_+0.5
59.2%
away_-0.5
40.8%
home_+1.5
68.8%
away_-1.5
31.2%
home_+3.5
84.2%
away_-3.5
15.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
64.3%
under_22.5
35.7%
over_24.5
52.8%
under_24.5
47.2%
over_26.5
41.4%
under_26.5
58.6%
over_28.5
31.0%
under_28.5
69.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
69.8%
under_10.5
30.2%
over_12.5
54.3%
under_12.5
45.7%
over_14.5
39.1%
under_14.5
60.9%
team_away
over_10.5
58.7%
under_10.5
41.3%
over_12.5
42.0%
under_12.5
58.0%
over_14.5
27.6%
under_14.5
72.4%
most
home
55.7%
draw
5.7%
away
38.6%
handicap
home_-4.5
32.8%
away_+4.5
67.2%
home_-2.5
44.0%
away_+2.5
56.0%
home_-0.5
55.7%
away_+0.5
44.3%
home_+0.5
61.4%
away_-0.5
38.6%
home_+2.5
72.1%
away_-2.5
28.0%
home_+4.5
81.0%
away_-4.5
19.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.1%
under_6.5
30.9%
over_7.5
57.0%
under_7.5
43.0%
over_8.5
44.8%
under_8.5
55.2%
over_9.5
33.7%
under_9.5
66.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
58.0%
under_3.5
42.0%
over_4.5
41.0%
under_4.5
59.0%
over_5.5
26.7%
under_5.5
73.3%
team_away
over_3.5
56.0%
under_3.5
44.0%
over_4.5
38.9%
under_4.5
61.1%
over_5.5
24.9%
under_5.5
75.1%
most
home
45.2%
draw
12.6%
away
42.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.8%
away_+2.5
77.2%
home_-0.5
45.2%
away_+0.5
54.8%
home_+0.5
57.8%
away_-0.5
42.3%
home_+2.5
79.4%
away_-2.5
20.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
76.3%
under_2.5
23.7%
over_3.5
56.8%
under_3.5
43.2%
over_4.5
37.3%
under_4.5
62.7%
over_5.5
21.6%
under_5.5
78.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
55.3%
under_1.5
44.7%
over_2.5
28.4%
under_2.5
71.6%
team_away
over_1.5
63.4%
under_1.5
36.6%
over_2.5
36.5%
under_2.5
63.5%
most
home
34.0%
draw
20.5%
away
45.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.6%
away_+1.5
82.4%
home_-0.5
34.0%
away_+0.5
66.0%
home_+0.5
54.4%
away_-0.5
45.6%
home_+1.5
73.5%
away_-1.5
26.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
67.8%
under_20.5
32.2%
over_22.5
52.2%
under_22.5
47.9%
over_24.5
36.7%
under_24.5
63.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
61.6%
under_9.5
38.4%
over_11.5
38.5%
under_11.5
61.6%
over_13.5
19.9%
under_13.5
80.1%
team_away
over_9.5
76.9%
under_9.5
23.2%
over_11.5
56.4%
under_11.5
43.6%
over_13.5
35.3%
under_13.5
64.7%
most
home
33.7%
draw
7.6%
away
58.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
15.3%
away_+3.5
84.7%
home_-0.5
33.7%
away_+0.5
66.3%
home_+2.5
57.3%
away_-2.5
42.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
15.0%
no
85.1%
home
yes
13.9%
no
86.1%
away
yes
1.2%
no
98.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Sunderland
Brighton