Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Chelsea42.5%
Win probability · fair 2.35
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.8%Fair 1.22
Chelsea or drawLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.1%Fair 1.56
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Chelsea and Bournemouth on 10 October 2026: Chelsea nose ahead at 42%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 60% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 62%. 2) Team news worth noting: Chelsea have Sánchez ruled out, Jörgensen ruled out, James a doubt, Chalobah ruled out. 3) The run in: Chelsea arrive W2 D1 L3, Bournemouth W0 D4 L2. For shots markets, Cole Palmer is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 2 wins for Chelsea, 3 draws and 0 for Bournemouth over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Over 11.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Bournemouth win32.9%@ 3.04
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals59.5%@ 1.68
Draw or Bournemouth57.5%@ 1.74
Over 9.5 corners54.3%@ 1.84
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.78
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.33
1-2 correct score7.9%@ 12.66
Model vs market
Chelsea
42.5%
Draw
24.6%
Bournemouth
32.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.8%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Close call59.5%Fair 1.68
BTTS · YesLikely62.1%Fair 1.61
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.1%Fair 1.56
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.3%Fair 1.84
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.6%Fair 2.24
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Most cornersChelsea57.0%Bournemouth33.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.3%Fair 1.51
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.0%Fair 1.82
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.6%Fair 2.30
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely32.8%Fair 3.05
Recent shot volume
Chelsea13.7 taken15.3 faced
Bournemouth14.2 taken11.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Chelsea (5 games)
6.6 / 8.0
Bournemouth (5 games)
6.2 / 7.4
Totals line guide
0.5·1.581.8%2.559.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
ChelseaWWLDL
BournemouthLDDDL
Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 2 · 3 draws · Bournemouth 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
2025-12-30Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth
2025-12-06Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea
2025-01-14Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth
2024-09-14Bournemouth 0-1 Chelsea
2024-05-19Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Bournemouth
J Gillett2 matches · team cards 3.5/g · match 4.5/g
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Cole PalmerChelsea · key player
To score25.8%3.88
1+ on target58.9%1.70
2+ shots67.7%1.48
Shots/90 3.36SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.43
David BrooksBournemouth · key player
To score4.4%22.73
1+ on target32.3%3.10
2+ shots31.6%3.16
Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.12
EstêvãoChelsea · in form
To score7.5%13.33
1+ on target32.0%3.12
2+ shots32.1%3.12
Shots/90 3.11SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.21
Alvaro RodríguezBournemouth · in form
To score14.5%6.90
1+ on target44.4%2.25
2+ shots50.8%1.97
Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.27
Danny WelbeckChelsea · in form
To score26.4%3.79
1+ on target49.2%2.03
2+ shots46.6%2.15
Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.44
EvanilsonBournemouth · in form
To score20.9%4.78
1+ on target54.3%1.84
2+ shots62.4%1.60
Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.27
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Chelsea win2.42
Draw4.01
Bournemouth win2.96
Both teams to score1.61
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.69
Chelsea most2.42
Bournemouth most2.96
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.47
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.20
Chelsea most1.75
Bournemouth most3.00
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.57
Over 4.5 cards2.25
Over 5.5 cards3.63
Chelsea most3.57
Bournemouth most1.88
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.86
Over 9.5 SoT2.37
Chelsea most2.00
Bournemouth most2.62
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.82
Over 26.5 shots2.30
Over 28.5 shots3.05
Chelsea most1.64
Bournemouth most2.97
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.44
Over 22.5 fouls1.85
Over 24.5 fouls2.60
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
SánchezChelseaOut0% to play
JörgensenChelseaOut0% to play
JamesChelseaDoubtful75% to play
ChalobahChelseaOut0% to play
B.BadiashileChelseaOut0% to play
M.SarrChelseaOut0% to play
PalestraChelseaDoubtful50% to play
PalmerChelseaDoubtful75% to play
CaicedoChelseaDoubtful50% to play
D.EssugoChelseaOut0% to play
João PedroChelseaDoubtful75% to play
Marc GuiuChelseaOut0% to play
EmeghaChelseaOut0% to play
Levi Colwill, Trevoh Chalobah, Filip Jorgensen, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Reece James, Benoit BadiashileChelseaOut
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Robert SánchezChelsea0.3%0.9 xG+xA in 5,664 min
Justin KluivertBournemouth12.2%20.6 xG+xA in 3,330 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.3%
Over 24.5
55.0%
Over 26.5
43.6%
Over 28.5
32.8%
Most: Chelsea
60.8%
Most: Bournemouth
33.7%
Chelsea Over 13.2
51.6%
Bournemouth Over 13.2
32.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
76.1%
Over 7.5
65.3%
Over 8.5
53.7%
Over 9.5
42.3%
Most: Chelsea
50.1%
Most: Bournemouth
38.1%
Chelsea Over 4.2
50.4%
Bournemouth Over 4.2
41.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
81.2%
Over 3.5
63.6%
Over 4.5
44.4%
Most: Chelsea
28.0%
Most: Bournemouth
53.2%
Chelsea Over 1.8
54.9%
Bournemouth Over 1.8
71.9%
Chelsea: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Cole Palmer
3.36
1.28
0.43
58.9%
67.7%
25.8%
Estêvão
3.11
1.04
0.21
32.0%
32.1%
7.5%
Danny Welbeck
2.25
0.97
0.44
49.2%
46.6%
26.4%
João Pedro
2.37
0.89
0.49
43.4%
44.7%
26.9%
Enzo Fernández
1.9
0.78
0.25
51.5%
52.6%
20.7%
Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
David Brooks
3.04
1.04
0.12
32.3%
31.6%
4.4%
Alvaro Rodríguez
2.93
1.01
0.27
44.4%
50.8%
14.5%
Evanilson
2.43
0.9
0.27
54.3%
62.4%
20.9%
Marcus Tavernier
2.39
0.82
0.23
49.3%
58.9%
17.4%
Rayan
2.26
0.68
0.28
45.2%
59.4%
21.9%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Chelsea clean sheet
23.2%
Bournemouth clean sheet
19.6%
Chelsea win to nil
18.1%
Bournemouth win to nil
14.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
41.3%
draw
24.9%
away
33.8%
double_chance
1X
66.2%
12
75.1%
X2
58.7%
dnb
home
54.9%
away
45.1%
btts
yes
62.2%
no
37.9%
clean_sheet
home
23.3%
away
19.7%
win_to_nil
home
18.2%
away
14.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
20.0%
home_by_2
12.5%
home_by_3plus
8.7%
away_by_1
17.8%
away_by_2
10.0%
away_by_3plus
6.0%
correct_score
0-0
5.1%
0-1
6.1%
0-2
4.9%
0-3
2.4%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
6.9%
1-1
11.4%
1-2
7.9%
1-3
3.8%
1-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
6.1%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
3.1%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
3.3%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
3.5%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
1.3%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.0%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.9%
under_0.5
5.1%
over_1.5
81.8%
under_1.5
18.2%
over_2.5
59.5%
under_2.5
40.5%
over_3.5
37.1%
under_3.5
62.9%
over_4.5
19.9%
under_4.5
80.1%
over_5.5
9.3%
under_5.5
90.8%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
80.4%
under_0.5
19.7%
over_1.5
48.4%
under_1.5
51.6%
over_2.5
22.4%
under_2.5
77.6%
team_away
over_0.5
76.7%
under_0.5
23.3%
over_1.5
42.7%
under_1.5
57.3%
over_2.5
18.0%
under_2.5
82.0%
most
home
41.3%
draw
24.9%
away
33.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
8.7%
away_+2.5
91.3%
home_-1.5
21.3%
away_+1.5
78.7%
home_-0.5
41.3%
away_+0.5
58.7%
home_+0.5
66.2%
away_-0.5
33.8%
home_+1.5
84.0%
away_-1.5
16.0%
home_+2.5
94.0%
away_-2.5
6.0%
total_exact
exact_0
5.1%
exact_1
13.0%
exact_2
22.3%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
17.3%
exact_5
10.6%
exact_6
5.5%
exact_7plus
3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.0%
draw
37.5%
away
26.5%
total
over_0.5
76.3%
under_0.5
23.7%
over_1.5
42.2%
under_1.5
57.8%
over_2.5
17.6%
under_2.5
82.4%
btts
yes
26.0%
no
74.0%
total_exact
exact_0
23.7%
exact_1
34.1%
exact_2
24.6%
exact_3
11.8%
exact_4plus
5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
33.6%
draw
34.8%
away
31.6%
total
over_0.5
80.6%
under_0.5
19.4%
over_1.5
48.8%
under_1.5
51.2%
over_2.5
22.7%
under_2.5
77.3%
btts
yes
31.3%
no
68.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
27.4%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.7%
D/H
12.6%
D/D
13.0%
D/A
11.8%
A/H
2.4%
A/D
4.9%
A/A
19.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.3%
under_7.5
21.7%
over_8.5
68.1%
under_8.5
31.9%
over_9.5
56.8%
under_9.5
43.2%
over_10.5
45.5%
under_10.5
54.5%
over_11.5
34.9%
under_11.5
65.1%
over_12.5
25.6%
under_12.5
74.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.5%
under_3.5
22.5%
over_4.5
64.1%
under_4.5
35.9%
over_5.5
50.0%
under_5.5
50.1%
team_away
over_3.5
62.2%
under_3.5
37.8%
over_4.5
45.9%
under_4.5
54.1%
over_5.5
31.6%
under_5.5
68.5%
most
home
57.2%
draw
9.5%
away
33.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
28.7%
away_+3.5
71.3%
home_-1.5
47.3%
away_+1.5
52.7%
home_-0.5
57.2%
away_+0.5
42.8%
home_+0.5
66.7%
away_-0.5
33.3%
home_+1.5
75.2%
away_-1.5
24.8%
home_+3.5
88.1%
away_-3.5
11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.3%
under_22.5
33.7%
over_24.5
55.0%
under_24.5
45.0%
over_26.5
43.6%
under_26.5
56.5%
over_28.5
32.8%
under_28.5
67.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.0%
under_10.5
26.0%
over_12.5
59.3%
under_12.5
40.7%
over_14.5
44.2%
under_14.5
55.8%
team_away
over_10.5
56.4%
under_10.5
43.6%
over_12.5
39.7%
under_12.5
60.3%
over_14.5
25.6%
under_14.5
74.4%
most
home
60.8%
draw
5.5%
away
33.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.8%
away_+4.5
62.2%
home_-2.5
49.3%
away_+2.5
50.7%
home_-0.5
60.8%
away_+0.5
39.2%
home_+0.5
66.3%
away_-0.5
33.7%
home_+2.5
76.2%
away_-2.5
23.8%
home_+4.5
84.3%
away_-4.5
15.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
76.1%
under_6.5
23.9%
over_7.5
65.3%
under_7.5
34.7%
over_8.5
53.7%
under_8.5
46.4%
over_9.5
42.3%
under_9.5
57.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.6%
under_3.5
33.4%
over_4.5
50.4%
under_4.5
49.6%
over_5.5
35.5%
under_5.5
64.5%
team_away
over_3.5
58.8%
under_3.5
41.2%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.2%
over_5.5
27.5%
under_5.5
72.6%
most
home
50.1%
draw
11.8%
away
38.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
27.8%
away_+2.5
72.3%
home_-0.5
50.1%
away_+0.5
49.9%
home_+0.5
61.9%
away_-0.5
38.1%
home_+2.5
81.5%
away_-2.5
18.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
81.2%
under_2.5
18.8%
over_3.5
63.6%
under_3.5
36.4%
over_4.5
44.4%
under_4.5
55.6%
over_5.5
27.6%
under_5.5
72.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
54.9%
under_1.5
45.1%
over_2.5
28.1%
under_2.5
71.9%
team_away
over_1.5
71.9%
under_1.5
28.1%
over_2.5
46.4%
under_2.5
53.6%
most
home
28.0%
draw
18.8%
away
53.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
14.0%
away_+1.5
86.0%
home_-0.5
28.0%
away_+0.5
72.0%
home_+0.5
46.8%
away_-0.5
53.2%
home_+1.5
66.1%
away_-1.5
33.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
69.4%
under_20.5
30.6%
over_22.5
54.0%
under_22.5
46.0%
over_24.5
38.5%
under_24.5
61.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
62.5%
under_9.5
37.5%
over_11.5
39.4%
under_11.5
60.6%
over_13.5
20.6%
under_13.5
79.4%
team_away
over_9.5
78.0%
under_9.5
22.0%
over_11.5
58.0%
under_11.5
42.0%
over_13.5
36.9%
under_13.5
63.1%
most
home
33.3%
draw
7.6%
away
59.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
15.1%
away_+3.5
84.9%
home_-0.5
33.3%
away_+0.5
66.7%
home_+2.5
56.7%
away_-2.5
43.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
17.8%
no
82.2%
home
yes
13.0%
no
87.0%
away
yes
5.5%
no
94.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Chelsea
Bournemouth