Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 20 Sep 2026

League Two

Fleetwood Town

DDDWD

Sat, 26 Sep 202626/915:00UK

Rochdale

LLWLD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Fleetwood Town or draw

71%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Fleetwood Town55.5%

Win probability · fair 1.80

Top signals

Fleetwood Town or drawVery likely81.3%Fair 1.23

Over 1.5 goalsLikely71.3%Fair 1.40

Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Fleetwood Town at 56% against Rochdale, League Two, 26 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 45% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. 2) Recent form reads W2 D4 L0 for Fleetwood Town against W1 D1 L4 for Rochdale. 3) As a promoted side, Rochdale carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.0%@ 2.22

Draw or Rochdale44.5%@ 2.25

Over 10.5 corners40.2%@ 2.49

Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals55.0%@ 1.82

Not both teams to score53.6%@ 1.87

Over 9.5 corners50.5%@ 1.98

Random finds

1-0 correct score13.2%@ 7.60

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.23

2-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.91

Model vs market

Fleetwood

55.5%

Draw

25.8%

Rochdale

18.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely71.3%Fair 1.40

Over 2.5Close call45.0%Fair 2.22

BTTS · YesClose call46.4%Fair 2.16

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63

Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.5%Fair 1.98

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.2%Fair 2.49

Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.0%Fair 3.23

Most cornersFleetwood Town55.6%Rochdale33.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call58.1%Fair 1.72

Over 24.5 shotsClose call45.3%Fair 2.21

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely33.3%Fair 3.00

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.1%Fair 4.34

Recent shot volume

Fleetwood Town13.7 taken12.8 faced

Rochdale7.7 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.3%2.545.0%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.571.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Fleetwood TownDDDWD

RochdaleLLWLD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Fleetwood TownRochdale

League position#8 of 27#24 of 27

Record W-D-L2-4-01-1-4

Current streakD1D1

Points per game1.670.67

Record, home vs away1-2-00-1-2

PPG, home vs away1.670.33

Goals scored per game1.170.83

Goals conceded per game0.671.67

Scored, home vs away1.000.00

Conceded, home vs away0.331.33

1st half goals per game0.500.33

2nd half goals per game0.670.50

Corners won per game4.84.2

Cards per game2.83.0

Fouls per game13.211.5

Red cards this season02

Shots per game13.77.7

Shots faced per game12.815.2

Shots on target per game3.32.5

Over 2.5 rate

16.7%66.7%

BTTS rate

50.0%33.3%

Clean sheets

50.0%33.3%

Rates this season:Fleetwood TownRochdale

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Fleetwood Town win1.80

Draw3.88

Rochdale win5.35

Both teams to score2.16

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.40

Over 2.5 goals2.22

Over 3.5 goals4.22

Fleetwood Town most1.80

Rochdale most5.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34

Over 8.5 corners1.58

Over 9.5 corners1.94

Over 10.5 corners2.49

Fleetwood Town most1.79

Rochdale most2.96

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.32

Over 3.5 cards1.80

Over 4.5 cards2.76

Over 5.5 cards4.82

Fleetwood Town most2.78

Rochdale most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.63

Over 7.5 SoT2.08

Over 8.5 SoT2.79

Over 9.5 SoT3.94

Fleetwood Town most1.76

Rochdale most3.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72

Over 24.5 shots2.21

Over 26.5 shots3.00

Over 28.5 shots4.34

Fleetwood Town most1.65

Rochdale most3.00

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.50

Over 22.5 fouls1.95

Over 24.5 fouls2.77

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	58.1%	Over 24.5	45.3%	Over 26.5	33.3%	Over 28.5	23.0%
Most: Fleetwood Town	60.5%	Most: Rochdale	33.3%
Fleetwood Town Over 13.2	44.0%	Rochdale Over 13.2	25.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	61.2%	Over 7.5	48.1%	Over 8.5	35.8%	Over 9.5	25.4%
Most: Fleetwood Town	56.8%	Most: Rochdale	30.4%
Fleetwood Town Over 4.2	42.8%	Rochdale Over 4.2	24.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	75.5%	Over 3.5	55.7%	Over 4.5	36.2%
Most: Fleetwood Town	35.9%	Most: Rochdale	43.3%
Fleetwood Town Over 1.8	56.1%	Rochdale Over 1.8	61.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Fleetwood Town clean sheet	42.8%
Rochdale clean sheet	19.5%
Fleetwood Town win to nil	33.8%
Rochdale win to nil	10.5%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	55.5%	draw	25.8%	away	18.7%

double_chance

1X	81.3%	12	74.2%	X2	44.5%

dnb

home	74.8%	away	25.2%

btts

yes	46.4%	no	53.6%

clean_sheet

home	43.1%	away	19.5%

win_to_nil

home	34.1%	away	10.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	25.0%	home_by_2	17.3%	home_by_3plus	13.2%
away_by_1	12.6%	away_by_2	4.6%	away_by_3plus	1.4%

correct_score

0-0	9.0%	0-1	6.5%	0-2	3.0%
0-3	0.8%	0-4	0.2%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	13.2%	1-1	12.2%	1-2	4.9%
1-3	1.4%	1-4	0.3%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	11.2%	2-1	9.5%	2-2	4.0%
2-3	1.1%	2-4	0.2%	2-5	0.0%
3-0	6.1%	3-1	5.1%	3-2	2.2%
3-3	0.6%	3-4	0.1%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.5%	4-1	2.1%	4-2	0.9%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.8%	5-1	0.7%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	0.0%	p	13.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.0%	under_0.5	9.0%	over_1.5	71.3%
under_1.5	28.7%	over_2.5	45.0%	under_2.5	55.0%
over_3.5	23.7%	under_3.5	76.3%	over_4.5	10.6%
under_4.5	89.4%	over_5.5	4.0%	under_5.5	96.0%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	80.5%	under_0.5	19.5%	over_1.5	48.6%
under_1.5	51.4%	over_2.5	22.5%	under_2.5	77.5%

team_away

over_0.5	56.9%	under_0.5	43.1%	over_1.5	20.7%
under_1.5	79.4%	over_2.5	5.4%	under_2.5	94.6%

most

home	55.5%	draw	25.8%	away	18.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	13.2%	away_+2.5	86.9%	home_-1.5	30.5%
away_+1.5	69.5%	home_-0.5	55.5%	away_+0.5	44.5%
home_+0.5	81.3%	away_-0.5	18.7%	home_+1.5	94.0%
away_-1.5	6.1%	home_+2.5	98.6%	away_-2.5	1.4%

total_exact

exact_0	9.0%	exact_1	19.7%	exact_2	26.4%
exact_3	21.3%	exact_4	13.2%	exact_5	6.5%
exact_6	2.7%	exact_7plus	1.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.2%	draw	47.2%	away	18.6%

total

over_0.5	61.5%	under_0.5	38.5%	over_1.5	24.7%
under_1.5	75.3%	over_2.5	7.2%	under_2.5	92.8%

btts

yes	13.6%	no	86.4%

total_exact

exact_0	38.5%	exact_1	36.8%	exact_2	17.5%
exact_3	5.6%	exact_4plus	1.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	44.4%	draw	36.2%	away	19.4%

total

over_0.5	76.5%	under_0.5	23.5%	over_1.5	42.4%
under_1.5	57.6%	over_2.5	17.8%	under_2.5	82.2%

btts

yes	24.3%	no	75.7%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.0%	H/D	4.1%	H/A	1.1%
D/H	21.0%	D/D	17.1%	D/A	9.2%
A/H	2.7%	A/D	4.6%	A/A	11.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.4%	under_7.5	25.7%	over_8.5	63.3%
under_8.5	36.7%	over_9.5	51.6%	under_9.5	48.4%
over_10.5	40.2%	under_10.5	59.8%	over_11.5	30.0%
under_11.5	70.0%	over_12.5	21.4%	under_12.5	78.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.1%	under_3.5	24.9%	over_4.5	60.4%
under_4.5	39.6%	over_5.5	45.5%	under_5.5	54.5%

team_away

over_3.5	60.9%	under_3.5	39.1%	over_4.5	44.0%
under_4.5	56.1%	over_5.5	29.3%	under_5.5	70.7%

most

home	55.8%	draw	10.4%	away	33.8%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.4%	away_+3.5	74.6%	home_-1.5	45.0%
away_+1.5	55.1%	home_-0.5	55.8%	away_+0.5	44.3%
home_+0.5	66.2%	away_-0.5	33.8%	home_+1.5	75.5%
away_-1.5	24.5%	home_+3.5	89.1%	away_-3.5	11.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	58.1%	under_22.5	41.9%	over_24.5	45.3%
under_24.5	54.7%	over_26.5	33.3%	under_26.5	66.7%
over_28.5	23.1%	under_28.5	77.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	69.6%	under_10.5	30.5%	over_12.5	52.5%
under_12.5	47.5%	over_14.5	36.1%	under_14.5	63.9%

team_away

over_10.5	51.0%	under_10.5	49.0%	over_12.5	33.0%
under_12.5	67.0%	over_14.5	19.1%	under_14.5	80.9%

most

home	60.5%	draw	6.1%	away	33.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	35.0%	away_+4.5	65.0%	home_-2.5	47.6%
away_+2.5	52.4%	home_-0.5	60.5%	away_+0.5	39.5%
home_+0.5	66.7%	away_-0.5	33.3%	home_+2.5	77.6%
away_-2.5	22.4%	home_+4.5	86.1%	away_-4.5	13.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	61.2%	under_6.5	38.8%	over_7.5	48.1%
under_7.5	51.9%	over_8.5	35.8%	under_8.5	64.2%
over_9.5	25.4%	under_9.5	74.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	60.0%	under_3.5	40.1%	over_4.5	42.8%
under_4.5	57.2%	over_5.5	28.2%	under_5.5	71.8%

team_away

over_3.5	40.8%	under_3.5	59.3%	over_4.5	24.4%
under_4.5	75.6%	over_5.5	13.3%	under_5.5	86.7%

most

home	56.8%	draw	12.8%	away	30.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	30.9%	away_+2.5	69.1%	home_-0.5	56.8%
away_+0.5	43.2%	home_+0.5	69.6%	away_-0.5	30.4%
home_+2.5	88.3%	away_-2.5	11.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	75.5%	under_2.5	24.5%	over_3.5	55.7%
under_3.5	44.3%	over_4.5	36.2%	under_4.5	63.8%
over_5.5	20.7%	under_5.5	79.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	56.1%	under_1.5	43.9%	over_2.5	29.1%
under_2.5	70.9%

team_away

over_1.5	61.3%	under_1.5	38.7%	over_2.5	34.3%
under_2.5	65.7%

most

home	35.9%	draw	20.8%	away	43.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	18.9%	away_+1.5	81.1%	home_-0.5	35.9%
away_+0.5	64.1%	home_+0.5	56.7%	away_-0.5	43.3%
home_+1.5	75.5%	away_-1.5	24.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	66.6%	under_20.5	33.4%	over_22.5	51.2%
under_22.5	48.8%	over_24.5	36.1%	under_24.5	63.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	68.4%	under_9.5	31.6%	over_11.5	46.4%
under_11.5	53.6%	over_13.5	26.7%	under_13.5	73.3%

team_away

over_9.5	69.2%	under_9.5	30.8%	over_11.5	47.3%
under_11.5	52.7%	over_13.5	27.5%	under_13.5	72.5%

most

home	45.4%	draw	7.9%	away	46.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.1%	away_+3.5	75.9%	home_-0.5	45.4%
away_+0.5	54.6%	home_+2.5	68.3%	away_-2.5	31.7%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	15.1%	no	84.9%

home

yes	2.0%	no	98.0%

away

yes	13.4%	no	86.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Fleetwood Town predictions · Rochdale predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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