Sevilla vs Barcelona: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga

Sevilla

WWLDW

Sat, 19 Sep 202620:00UK29°C · Clear

Barcelona

WWWWW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Draw or Barcelona

82%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Barcelona60.8%

Win probability · fair 1.65

Top signals

Draw or BarcelonaVery likely82.7%Fair 1.21

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.7%Fair 1.22

Over 2.5 goalsClose call59.4%Fair 1.68

Model read

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Barcelona at 61% against Sevilla, La Liga, 19 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. 2) The forecast adds a wrinkle: 29 degrees of heat. 3) Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Sevilla against W5 D0 L1 for Barcelona. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Sevilla, 0 draws and 4 for Barcelona, averaging 5.2 goals a game. Alfon drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21

Sevilla or draw39.2%@ 2.55

Over 10.5 corners35.0%@ 2.86

Medium risk

Both teams to score57.2%@ 1.75

Over 8.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.66

1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.12

0-2 correct score9.3%@ 10.79

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sevilla

17.3%

Draw

21.9%

Barcelona

60.8%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.7%Fair 1.22

Over 2.5Close call59.4%Fair 1.68

BTTS · YesClose call57.2%Fair 1.75

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.3%Fair 1.78

Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.2%Fair 2.21

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.0%Fair 2.86

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.1%Fair 3.83

Most cornersSevilla50.1%Barcelona38.5%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.8%Fair 1.65

Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.1%Fair 2.08

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely35.9%Fair 2.78

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.4%Fair 3.94

Recent shot volume

Sevilla11.3 taken10.5 faced

Barcelona17.8 taken9.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Sevilla (5 games)

4.0 / 8.0

Barcelona (5 games)

8.2 / 11.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.7%2.559.4%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.581.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

SevillaWWLDW

BarcelonaWWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 1 · 0 draws · Barcelona 4 · 5.2 goals/game.

2026-03-15Barcelona 5-2 Sevilla

2025-10-05Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona

2025-02-09Sevilla 1-4 Barcelona

2024-10-20Barcelona 5-1 Sevilla

2024-05-26Sevilla 1-2 Barcelona

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sevilla

Barcelona

League position#4 of 20#1 of 20

Record W-D-L4-1-16-0-0

Current streakW2W6

Points per game2.173.00

Record, home vs away2-0-13-0-0

PPG, home vs away2.003.00

Goals scored per game1.504.67

Goals conceded per game1.001.00

Scored, home vs away1.334.67

Conceded, home vs away1.330.67

1st half goals per game0.201.80

2nd half goals per game1.402.40

Corners won per game3.66.2

Cards per game3.41.0

Fouls per game15.09.2

Red cards this season20

Shots per game11.819.2

Shots faced per game10.27.8

Shots on target per game4.08.4

1st half shots per game4.08.2

2nd half shots per game8.011.0

xG for per game1.114.31

xG against per game1.161.17

Over 2.5 rate

50.0%83.3%

BTTS rate

66.7%50.0%

Clean sheets

33.3%50.0%

Rates this season:SevillaBarcelona

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

AlfonSevilla · key player

To score14.1%7.09

1+ on target49.0%2.04

2+ shots35.1%2.85

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.32

Gabriel JesusBarcelona · key player

To score20.2%4.95

1+ on target45.8%2.18

2+ shots39.3%2.54

Shots/90 3.85SoT/90 1.74Goals/90 0.64

Lucas StassinSevilla · in form

To score35.4%2.82

1+ on target58.0%1.72

2+ shots48.6%2.06

Shots/90 2.17SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.58

Lamine YamalBarcelona · in form

To score36.4%2.75

1+ on target75.0%1.33

2+ shots93.1%1.07

Shots/90 4.79SoT/90 1.53Goals/90 0.5

Miguel SierraSevilla · in form

To score18.3%5.46

1+ on target45.1%2.22

2+ shots40.9%2.44

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.37

RaphinhaBarcelona · in form

To score46.6%2.15

1+ on target70.6%1.42

2+ shots81.8%1.22

Shots/90 3.82SoT/90 1.5Goals/90 0.77

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sevilla win5.25

Draw4.51

Barcelona win1.70

Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05

Over 1.5 goals1.22

Over 2.5 goals1.68

Over 3.5 goals2.69

Sevilla most5.25

Barcelona most1.70

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42

Over 8.5 corners1.71

Over 9.5 corners2.18

Over 10.5 corners2.91

Sevilla most1.99

Barcelona most2.59

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.26

Over 3.5 cards1.63

Over 4.5 cards2.34

Over 5.5 cards3.75

Sevilla most2.23

Barcelona most2.79

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34

Over 7.5 SoT1.60

Over 8.5 SoT2.02

Over 9.5 SoT2.68

Sevilla most2.25

Barcelona most2.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65

Over 24.5 shots2.08

Over 26.5 shots2.78

Over 28.5 shots3.94

Sevilla most1.86

Barcelona most2.51

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.39

Over 22.5 fouls1.70

Over 24.5 fouls2.23

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	60.8%	Over 24.5	48.1%	Over 26.5	36.0%	Over 28.5	25.4%
Most: Sevilla	53.9%	Most: Barcelona	39.8%
Sevilla Over 13.2	41.4%	Barcelona Over 13.2	31.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.5%	Over 7.5	62.4%	Over 8.5	49.6%	Over 9.5	37.3%
Most: Sevilla	44.5%	Most: Barcelona	42.5%
Sevilla Over 4.2	44.0%	Barcelona Over 4.2	42.6%

Cards

Over 2.5	79.3%	Over 3.5	61.5%	Over 4.5	42.7%
Most: Sevilla	44.8%	Most: Barcelona	35.9%
Sevilla Over 1.8	65.3%	Barcelona Over 1.8	59.3%

Sevilla: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Alfon	2.61	1.42	0.32	49.0%	35.1%	14.1%
Lucas Stassin	2.17	1.15	0.58	58.0%	48.6%	35.4%
Miguel Sierra	2.57	1.1	0.37	45.1%	40.9%	18.3%
Isaac Romero	2.17	0.72	0.23	37.5%	41.3%	13.9%
Chidera Ejuke	2.14	0.59	0.21	18.8%	17.5%	7.1%

Barcelona: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Gabriel Jesus	3.85	1.74	0.64	45.8%	39.3%	20.2%
Lamine Yamal	4.79	1.53	0.5	75.0%	93.1%	36.4%
Raphinha	3.82	1.5	0.77	70.6%	81.8%	46.6%
Fermín López	3.22	1.27	0.43	54.3%	59.0%	23.3%
Karim Adeyemi	2.88	1.16	0.46	46.5%	46.0%	22.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sevilla clean sheet	13.5%
Barcelona clean sheet	33.8%
Sevilla win to nil	8.3%
Barcelona win to nil	28.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	19.1%	draw	22.2%	away	58.8%

double_chance

1X	41.2%	12	77.8%	X2	80.9%

dnb

home	24.5%	away	75.5%

btts

yes	57.2%	no	42.8%

clean_sheet

home	13.5%	away	34.4%

win_to_nil

home	8.3%	away	29.3%

winning_margin

home_by_1	12.0%	home_by_2	5.1%	home_by_3plus	2.0%
away_by_1	22.9%	away_by_2	18.0%	away_by_3plus	17.9%

correct_score

0-0	5.1%	0-1	8.8%	0-2	9.3%
0-3	6.2%	0-4	3.2%	0-5	1.3%
1-0	4.5%	1-1	10.4%	1-2	9.9%
1-3	6.6%	1-4	3.4%	1-5	1.4%
2-0	2.6%	2-1	5.3%	2-2	5.3%
2-3	3.5%	2-4	1.8%	2-5	0.7%
3-0	0.9%	3-1	1.9%	3-2	1.9%
3-3	1.3%	3-4	0.6%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.3%	4-1	0.5%	4-2	0.5%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.1%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.4%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	94.9%	under_0.5	5.1%	over_1.5	81.7%
under_1.5	18.3%	over_2.5	59.4%	under_2.5	40.6%
over_3.5	37.1%	under_3.5	62.9%	over_4.5	19.9%
under_4.5	80.1%	over_5.5	9.3%	under_5.5	90.7%

odd_even

odd	48.9%	even	51.1%

team_home

over_0.5	65.6%	under_0.5	34.4%	over_1.5	28.8%
under_1.5	71.2%	over_2.5	9.3%	under_2.5	90.7%

team_away

over_0.5	86.5%	under_0.5	13.5%	over_1.5	59.7%
under_1.5	40.3%	over_2.5	32.8%	under_2.5	67.2%

most

home	19.1%	draw	22.2%	away	58.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	2.0%	away_+2.5	98.0%	home_-1.5	7.1%
away_+1.5	92.9%	home_-0.5	19.1%	away_+0.5	81.0%
home_+0.5	41.2%	away_-0.5	58.8%	home_+1.5	64.1%
away_-1.5	35.9%	home_+2.5	82.1%	away_-2.5	17.9%

total_exact

exact_0	5.1%	exact_1	13.2%	exact_2	22.3%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	17.2%	exact_5	10.6%
exact_6	5.5%	exact_7plus	3.8%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	13.1%	draw	32.9%	away	54.0%

total

over_0.5	78.0%	under_0.5	22.1%	over_1.5	44.6%
under_1.5	55.4%	over_2.5	19.4%	under_2.5	80.6%

btts

yes	22.0%	no	78.0%

total_exact

exact_0	22.1%	exact_1	33.3%	exact_2	25.2%
exact_3	12.7%	exact_4plus	6.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	21.7%	draw	31.8%	away	46.5%

total

over_0.5	83.2%	under_0.5	16.8%	over_1.5	53.2%
under_1.5	46.8%	over_2.5	26.5%	under_2.5	73.5%

btts

yes	32.7%	no	67.3%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	7.6%	H/D	3.2%	H/A	2.3%
D/H	7.1%	D/D	10.5%	D/A	15.3%
A/H	2.0%	A/D	5.6%	A/A	46.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	70.4%	under_7.5	29.6%	over_8.5	58.3%
under_8.5	41.7%	over_9.5	45.9%	under_9.5	54.1%
over_10.5	34.3%	under_10.5	65.7%	over_11.5	24.4%
under_11.5	75.6%	over_12.5	16.5%	under_12.5	83.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.5%	under_3.5	30.5%	over_4.5	53.3%
under_4.5	46.8%	over_5.5	37.8%	under_5.5	62.2%

team_away

over_3.5	61.7%	under_3.5	38.3%	over_4.5	44.4%
under_4.5	55.6%	over_5.5	29.4%	under_5.5	70.6%

most

home	50.2%	draw	11.1%	away	38.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	20.2%	away_+3.5	79.8%	home_-1.5	39.1%
away_+1.5	60.9%	home_-0.5	50.2%	away_+0.5	49.8%
home_+0.5	61.4%	away_-0.5	38.6%	home_+1.5	71.6%
away_-1.5	28.4%	home_+3.5	87.1%	away_-3.5	12.9%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	60.8%	under_22.5	39.2%	over_24.5	48.1%
under_24.5	51.9%	over_26.5	35.9%	under_26.5	64.1%
over_28.5	25.4%	under_28.5	74.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	67.3%	under_10.5	32.7%	over_12.5	49.9%
under_12.5	50.1%	over_14.5	33.5%	under_14.5	66.5%

team_away

over_10.5	58.0%	under_10.5	42.0%	over_12.5	39.8%
under_12.5	60.3%	over_14.5	24.6%	under_14.5	75.4%

most

home	53.9%	draw	6.3%	away	39.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	29.2%	away_+4.5	70.8%	home_-2.5	41.1%
away_+2.5	58.9%	home_-0.5	53.9%	away_+0.5	46.1%
home_+0.5	60.2%	away_-0.5	39.8%	home_+2.5	72.0%
away_-2.5	28.0%	home_+4.5	81.7%	away_-4.5	18.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.5%	under_6.5	25.5%	over_7.5	62.4%
under_7.5	37.6%	over_8.5	49.6%	under_8.5	50.4%
over_9.5	37.3%	under_9.5	62.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	62.1%	under_3.5	37.9%	over_4.5	44.0%
under_4.5	56.0%	over_5.5	28.3%	under_5.5	71.7%

team_away

over_3.5	60.8%	under_3.5	39.2%	over_4.5	42.6%
under_4.5	57.4%	over_5.5	27.1%	under_5.5	72.9%

most

home	44.5%	draw	13.0%	away	42.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	21.5%	away_+2.5	78.5%	home_-0.5	44.5%
away_+0.5	55.5%	home_+0.5	57.5%	away_-0.5	42.5%
home_+2.5	79.9%	away_-2.5	20.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	79.3%	under_2.5	20.7%	over_3.5	61.5%
under_3.5	38.5%	over_4.5	42.8%	under_4.5	57.3%
over_5.5	26.7%	under_5.5	73.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	65.3%	under_1.5	34.8%	over_2.5	39.4%
under_2.5	60.6%

team_away

over_1.5	59.3%	under_1.5	40.8%	over_2.5	33.0%
under_2.5	67.0%

most

home	44.8%	draw	19.4%	away	35.9%

handicap

home_-1.5	26.9%	away_+1.5	73.2%	home_-0.5	44.8%
away_+0.5	55.3%	home_+0.5	64.1%	away_-0.5	35.9%
home_+1.5	80.2%	away_-1.5	19.8%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	72.2%	under_20.5	27.8%	over_22.5	58.8%
under_22.5	41.2%	over_24.5	44.8%	under_24.5	55.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	77.5%	under_9.5	22.5%	over_11.5	59.5%
under_11.5	40.5%	over_13.5	40.5%	under_13.5	59.5%

team_away

over_9.5	65.4%	under_9.5	34.6%	over_11.5	44.8%
under_11.5	55.2%	over_13.5	26.7%	under_13.5	73.3%

most

home	56.9%	draw	6.9%	away	36.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	36.0%	away_+3.5	64.0%	home_-0.5	56.9%
away_+0.5	43.1%	home_+2.5	76.0%	away_-2.5	24.0%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	20.2%	no	79.8%

home

yes	16.9%	no	83.1%

away

yes	4.0%	no	96.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sevilla predictions · Barcelona predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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