Gent vs Standard Liège prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

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Gent vs Standard Liège: model prediction

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Pro League
Gent

WWWWD

Full time2-1Fri, 18 Sep 202618/919:45UK
Standard Liège
Model’s top convictions

80%

Gent or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time4 of 4 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Gent 2-1 Standard Liège
ResultOver 2.5 goalsOver 1.5 goalsOver 3.5 goalsBoth teams to score
5 of 5 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Gent at 55.5%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 51.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 51.7% and it landed.

Model pick

Gent55.5%

Win probability · fair 1.80

Top signals

Gent or drawVery likely80.0%Fair 1.25
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.0%Fair 1.56

Model read

Gent go into this Pro League meeting with Standard Liège on 18 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 56%. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. As a promoted side, Standard Liège carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Draw or Standard Liège44.5%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners42.9%@ 2.33
Over 11.5 corners33.3%@ 3.00
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Both teams to score51.7%@ 1.93
Over 2.5 goals51.2%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.55
1-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.09
2-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.84

Model vs market

Gent

55.5%

Draw

24.5%

Standard

20.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.2%Fair 1.95
BTTS · YesClose call51.7%Fair 1.93

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.0%Fair 1.56
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.9%Fair 2.33
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.3%Fair 3.00
Most cornersGent52.7%Standard Liège36.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely68.3%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call56.7%Fair 1.76
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely44.9%Fair 2.23
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely33.7%Fair 2.96

Recent shot volume

Gent12.7 taken9.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.1%2.551.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.1%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

GentWWWWD

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Gent win1.80
Draw4.08
Standard Liège win5.01
Both teams to score1.93

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.95
Over 3.5 goals3.44
Gent most1.80
Standard Liège most5.01

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.82
Over 10.5 corners2.31
Gent most1.89
Standard Liège most2.73

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.15
Over 4.5 cards3.60
Over 5.5 cards6.84
Gent most3.09
Standard Liège most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.61
Over 8.5 SoT2.01
Over 9.5 SoT2.63
Gent most1.95
Standard Liège most2.75

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.76
Over 26.5 shots2.23
Over 28.5 shots2.96
Gent most1.63
Standard Liège most3.02

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.77
Over 22.5 fouls2.40
Over 24.5 fouls3.52
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 68.2% Over 24.5 56.7% Over 26.5 44.9% Over 28.5 33.7%
Most: Gent 61.3% Most: Standard Liège 33.1%
Gent Over 13.2 53.0% Standard Liège Over 13.2 32.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.7% Over 7.5 62.0% Over 8.5 49.7% Over 9.5 38.1%
Most: Gent 51.3% Most: Standard Liège 36.4%
Gent Over 4.2 48.7% Standard Liège Over 4.2 37.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.8% Over 3.5 46.5% Over 4.5 27.8%
Most: Gent 32.4% Most: Standard Liège 45.8%
Gent Over 1.8 47.0% Standard Liège Over 1.8 56.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Gent clean sheet 37.8%
Standard Liège clean sheet 17.2%
Gent win to nil 30.7%
Standard Liège win to nil 10.1%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.5% draw 24.5% away 20.0%
double_chance
1X 80.0% 12 75.5% X2 44.5%
dnb
home 73.6% away 26.5%
btts
yes 51.7% no 48.3%
clean_sheet
home 38.2% away 17.2%
win_to_nil
home 31.0% away 10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.0% home_by_2 17.3% home_by_3plus 14.3%
away_by_1 12.9% away_by_2 5.2% away_by_3plus 1.9%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 5.8% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.0% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.2% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.0% 3-1 5.7% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.6% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.1%
under_1.5 23.9% over_2.5 51.2% under_2.5 48.8%
over_3.5 29.1% under_3.5 70.9% over_4.5 14.0%
under_4.5 86.0% over_5.5 5.9% under_5.5 94.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.5%
under_1.5 47.5% over_2.5 25.8% under_2.5 74.2%
team_away
over_0.5 61.8% under_0.5 38.2% over_1.5 25.1%
under_1.5 74.9% over_2.5 7.4% under_2.5 92.6%
most
home 55.5% draw 24.5% away 20.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.3% away_+2.5 85.7% home_-1.5 31.5%
away_+1.5 68.5% home_-0.5 55.5% away_+0.5 44.5%
home_+0.5 80.0% away_-0.5 20.0% home_+1.5 92.9%
away_-1.5 7.1% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 1.9%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.8% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.0% exact_5 8.2%
exact_6 3.7% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 39.9% away 26.0%
total
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.3%
under_1.5 62.7% over_2.5 14.3% under_2.5 85.7%
btts
yes 22.6% no 77.4%
total_exact
exact_0 27.3% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.0%
exact_3 10.0% exact_4plus 4.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.9% draw 38.8% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 74.3% under_0.5 25.7% over_1.5 39.4%
under_1.5 60.7% over_2.5 15.6% under_2.5 84.4%
btts
yes 23.9% no 76.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.5% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.6%
D/H 14.3% D/D 15.5% D/A 10.1%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.3% A/A 18.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.6% under_7.5 22.4% over_8.5 66.9%
under_8.5 33.2% over_9.5 55.0% under_9.5 45.0%
over_10.5 43.2% under_10.5 56.8% over_11.5 32.3%
under_11.5 67.7% over_12.5 23.1% under_12.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.6% under_3.5 24.3% over_4.5 60.8%
under_4.5 39.2% over_5.5 45.5% under_5.5 54.5%
team_away
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 33.3% under_5.5 66.7%
most
home 52.8% draw 10.5% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 42.1%
away_+1.5 57.9% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+1.5 72.9%
away_-1.5 27.1% home_+3.5 87.4% away_-3.5 12.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.3% under_22.5 31.8% over_24.5 56.7%
under_24.5 43.3% over_26.5 44.9% under_26.5 55.1%
over_28.5 33.7% under_28.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.8% under_10.5 24.2% over_12.5 60.8%
under_12.5 39.2% over_14.5 45.2% under_14.5 54.8%
team_away
over_10.5 57.9% under_10.5 42.1% over_12.5 40.5%
under_12.5 59.5% over_14.5 25.8% under_14.5 74.2%
most
home 61.3% draw 5.6% away 33.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 66.9% away_-0.5 33.1% home_+2.5 77.0%
away_-2.5 23.0% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.7% under_6.5 26.3% over_7.5 62.0%
under_7.5 38.0% over_8.5 49.7% under_8.5 50.3%
over_9.5 38.1% under_9.5 61.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 33.4% under_5.5 66.6%
team_away
over_3.5 55.5% under_3.5 44.5% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 23.7% under_5.5 76.3%
most
home 51.3% draw 12.3% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.8% away_+2.5 72.2% home_-0.5 51.3%
away_+0.5 48.7% home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4%
home_+2.5 83.5% away_-2.5 16.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.8% under_2.5 32.2% over_3.5 46.5%
under_3.5 53.5% over_4.5 27.8% under_4.5 72.2%
over_5.5 14.6% under_5.5 85.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 47.0% under_1.5 53.0% over_2.5 21.5%
under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_1.5 56.9% under_1.5 43.1% over_2.5 30.3%
under_2.5 69.8%
most
home 32.4% draw 21.8% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.7% away_+1.5 84.3% home_-0.5 32.4%
away_+0.5 67.6% home_+0.5 54.2% away_-0.5 45.8%
home_+1.5 74.4% away_-1.5 25.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.4% under_20.5 43.6% over_22.5 41.6%
under_22.5 58.4% over_24.5 28.4% under_24.5 71.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 54.5% under_9.5 45.5% over_11.5 33.5%
under_11.5 66.5% over_13.5 17.8% under_13.5 82.3%
team_away
over_9.5 67.0% under_9.5 33.0% over_11.5 46.7%
under_11.5 53.3% over_13.5 28.4% under_13.5 71.6%
most
home 37.0% draw 7.3% away 55.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.5% away_+3.5 81.6% home_-0.5 37.0%
away_+0.5 63.0% home_+2.5 59.4% away_-2.5 40.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.1% no 83.9%
home
yes 8.8% no 91.3%
away
yes 8.1% no 91.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Gent predictions · Standard Liège predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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