Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Heerenveen40.2%
Win probability · fair 2.49
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely80.8%Fair 1.24
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.8%Fair 1.47
Draw or HeerenveenLikely65.5%Fair 1.53
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Heerenveen at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 19 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 0 draws and 3 for Heerenveen at 3.0 goals per match. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Sparta Rotterdam against W1 D3 L2 for Heerenveen. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Heerenveen win40.2%@ 2.49
Over 11.5 corners39.6%@ 2.53
Medium risk
Both teams to score61.0%@ 1.64
Sparta Rotterdam or draw59.7%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners58.3%@ 1.72
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.55
1-2 correct score8.7%@ 11.44
2-1 correct score8.0%@ 12.50
Model vs market
Rotterdam
34.4%
Draw
25.3%
Heerenveen
40.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely80.8%Fair 1.24
Over 2.5Close call57.9%Fair 1.73
BTTS · YesLikely61.0%Fair 1.64
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.8%Fair 1.47
Over 9.5 cornersClose call58.3%Fair 1.72
Over 10.5 cornersClose call48.7%Fair 2.05
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely39.6%Fair 2.53
Most cornersSparta Rotterdam52.8%Heerenveen37.4%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsVery likely75.9%Fair 1.32
Over 24.5 shotsLikely66.1%Fair 1.51
Over 26.5 shotsClose call55.3%Fair 1.81
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely44.4%Fair 2.25
Recent shot volume
Sparta Rotterdam13.5 taken17.2 faced
Heerenveen14.8 taken16.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.580.8%2.557.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Sparta RotterdamWDLDL
HeerenveenDLDLD
Last 5 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 2 · 0 draws · Heerenveen 3 · 3.0 goals/game.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Sparta Rotterdam win2.90
Draw3.95
Heerenveen win2.49
Both teams to score1.64
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.73
Over 3.5 goals2.81
Sparta Rotterdam most2.90
Heerenveen most2.49
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.22
Over 8.5 corners1.38
Over 9.5 corners1.62
Over 10.5 corners1.99
Sparta Rotterdam most1.89
Heerenveen most2.66
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.76
Over 3.5 cards2.88
Over 4.5 cards5.46
Over 5.5 cards11.82
Sparta Rotterdam most3.50
Heerenveen most2.09
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.31
Over 8.5 SoT1.51
Over 9.5 SoT1.80
Sparta Rotterdam most2.06
Heerenveen most2.48
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.32
Over 24.5 shots1.51
Over 26.5 shots1.81
Over 28.5 shots2.25
Sparta Rotterdam most1.78
Heerenveen most2.61
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.20
Over 22.5 fouls3.26
Over 24.5 fouls5.28
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
75.9%
Over 24.5
66.1%
Over 26.5
55.3%
Over 28.5
44.3%
Most: Sparta Rotterdam
56.3%
Most: Heerenveen
38.3%
Sparta Rotterdam Over 13.2
56.8%
Heerenveen Over 13.2
43.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
84.8%
Over 7.5
76.3%
Over 8.5
66.3%
Over 9.5
55.6%
Most: Sparta Rotterdam
48.7%
Most: Heerenveen
40.4%
Sparta Rotterdam Over 4.2
58.4%
Heerenveen Over 4.2
52.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
56.7%
Over 3.5
34.7%
Over 4.5
18.3%
Most: Sparta Rotterdam
28.6%
Most: Heerenveen
47.8%
Sparta Rotterdam Over 1.8
35.9%
Heerenveen Over 1.8
50.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet
20.7%
Heerenveen clean sheet
23.6%
Sparta Rotterdam win to nil
15.2%
Heerenveen win to nil
18.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
34.4%
draw
25.3%
away
40.2%
double_chance
1X
59.8%
12
74.7%
X2
65.6%
dnb
home
46.1%
away
53.9%
btts
yes
61.0%
no
39.0%
clean_sheet
home
20.8%
away
23.7%
win_to_nil
home
15.3%
away
18.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.2%
home_by_2
10.2%
home_by_3plus
6.0%
away_by_1
19.9%
away_by_2
12.2%
away_by_3plus
8.1%
correct_score
0-0
5.5%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
0-3
3.2%
0-4
1.3%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
6.5%
1-1
11.7%
1-2
8.7%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
5.1%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
3.0%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.9%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.5%
under_0.5
5.5%
over_1.5
80.8%
under_1.5
19.2%
over_2.5
57.9%
under_2.5
42.1%
over_3.5
35.5%
under_3.5
64.5%
over_4.5
18.7%
under_4.5
81.3%
over_5.5
8.5%
under_5.5
91.5%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
76.3%
under_0.5
23.7%
over_1.5
42.2%
under_1.5
57.8%
over_2.5
17.6%
under_2.5
82.4%
team_away
over_0.5
79.2%
under_0.5
20.8%
over_1.5
46.6%
under_1.5
53.4%
over_2.5
20.9%
under_2.5
79.1%
most
home
34.4%
draw
25.3%
away
40.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
6.0%
away_+2.5
94.0%
home_-1.5
16.2%
away_+1.5
83.8%
home_-0.5
34.4%
away_+0.5
65.6%
home_+0.5
59.8%
away_-0.5
40.2%
home_+1.5
79.7%
away_-1.5
20.3%
home_+2.5
91.9%
away_-2.5
8.1%
total_exact
exact_0
5.5%
exact_1
13.7%
exact_2
22.9%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.8%
exact_5
10.2%
exact_6
5.1%
exact_7plus
3.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.3%
draw
43.9%
away
28.8%
total
over_0.5
67.1%
under_0.5
32.9%
over_1.5
30.6%
under_1.5
69.4%
over_2.5
10.2%
under_2.5
89.8%
btts
yes
18.2%
no
81.8%
total_exact
exact_0
32.9%
exact_1
36.6%
exact_2
20.3%
exact_3
7.6%
exact_4plus
2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
30.1%
draw
32.8%
away
37.1%
total
over_0.5
83.5%
under_0.5
16.6%
over_1.5
53.7%
under_1.5
46.3%
over_2.5
26.9%
under_2.5
73.1%
btts
yes
35.0%
no
65.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
18.8%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
3.1%
D/H
13.2%
D/D
14.4%
D/A
16.3%
A/H
2.3%
A/D
4.9%
A/A
21.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
81.8%
under_7.5
18.2%
over_8.5
72.5%
under_8.5
27.6%
over_9.5
61.7%
under_9.5
38.3%
over_10.5
50.3%
under_10.5
49.7%
over_11.5
39.4%
under_11.5
60.6%
over_12.5
29.5%
under_12.5
70.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.6%
under_3.5
22.4%
over_4.5
64.1%
under_4.5
35.9%
over_5.5
49.9%
under_5.5
50.1%
team_away
over_3.5
68.3%
under_3.5
31.7%
over_4.5
52.7%
under_4.5
47.3%
over_5.5
38.0%
under_5.5
62.0%
most
home
52.9%
draw
9.5%
away
37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.8%
away_+3.5
74.2%
home_-1.5
43.3%
away_+1.5
56.7%
home_-0.5
52.9%
away_+0.5
47.1%
home_+0.5
62.5%
away_-0.5
37.6%
home_+1.5
71.3%
away_-1.5
28.7%
home_+3.5
85.2%
away_-3.5
14.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
75.9%
under_22.5
24.1%
over_24.5
66.1%
under_24.5
33.9%
over_26.5
55.3%
under_26.5
44.7%
over_28.5
44.4%
under_28.5
55.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
77.7%
under_10.5
22.3%
over_12.5
64.1%
under_12.5
35.9%
over_14.5
49.5%
under_14.5
50.5%
team_away
over_10.5
67.3%
under_10.5
32.8%
over_12.5
51.5%
under_12.5
48.5%
over_14.5
36.5%
under_14.5
63.5%
most
home
56.3%
draw
5.4%
away
38.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.4%
away_+4.5
65.6%
home_-2.5
45.2%
away_+2.5
54.8%
home_-0.5
56.3%
away_+0.5
43.7%
home_+0.5
61.7%
away_-0.5
38.3%
home_+2.5
71.8%
away_-2.5
28.2%
home_+4.5
80.4%
away_-4.5
19.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
84.8%
under_6.5
15.2%
over_7.5
76.3%
under_7.5
23.7%
over_8.5
66.3%
under_8.5
33.7%
over_9.5
55.6%
under_9.5
44.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.4%
under_3.5
26.6%
over_4.5
58.4%
under_4.5
41.6%
over_5.5
43.5%
under_5.5
56.5%
team_away
over_3.5
68.6%
under_3.5
31.4%
over_4.5
52.6%
under_4.5
47.4%
over_5.5
37.6%
under_5.5
62.4%
most
home
48.7%
draw
11.0%
away
40.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.0%
away_+2.5
72.0%
home_-0.5
48.7%
away_+0.5
51.3%
home_+0.5
59.6%
away_-0.5
40.4%
home_+2.5
78.7%
away_-2.5
21.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
56.8%
under_2.5
43.3%
over_3.5
34.7%
under_3.5
65.3%
over_4.5
18.3%
under_4.5
81.7%
over_5.5
8.5%
under_5.5
91.5%
odd_even
odd
49.8%
even
50.2%
team_home
over_1.5
35.9%
under_1.5
64.1%
over_2.5
13.7%
under_2.5
86.3%
team_away
over_1.5
50.6%
under_1.5
49.4%
over_2.5
24.7%
under_2.5
75.3%
most
home
28.6%
draw
23.6%
away
47.8%
handicap
home_-1.5
12.2%
away_+1.5
87.8%
home_-0.5
28.6%
away_+0.5
71.4%
home_+0.5
52.2%
away_-0.5
47.8%
home_+1.5
74.2%
away_-1.5
25.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
45.4%
under_20.5
54.6%
over_22.5
30.7%
under_22.5
69.3%
over_24.5
18.9%
under_24.5
81.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
45.0%
under_9.5
55.0%
over_11.5
24.5%
under_11.5
75.5%
over_13.5
11.2%
under_13.5
88.8%
team_away
over_9.5
62.0%
under_9.5
38.0%
over_11.5
40.4%
under_11.5
59.6%
over_13.5
22.6%
under_13.5
77.4%
most
home
34.2%
draw
7.7%
away
58.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
15.5%
away_+3.5
84.5%
home_-0.5
34.2%
away_+0.5
65.8%
home_+2.5
58.0%
away_-2.5
42.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
7.3%
no
92.7%
home
yes
3.5%
no
96.5%
away
yes
3.9%
no
96.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen