Everton vs Ipswich prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Everton vs Ipswich: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Premier League
Everton

LWDDD

Sat, 19 Sep 202615:00UK18°C · Cloudy
Ipswich

LWLLW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Everton or draw

75%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EvertonWin probability
54.3%
Top 3 convictions

Everton or draw78.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals74.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Over 8.5 corners59.3%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

"54% on Everton is a measurement, not a promise." Few Premier League fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Everton carry a 54% win probability against Ipswich on 19 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. For shots markets, Carlos Alcaraz is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, Ipswich carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Everton arrive W1 D3 L2, Ipswich W2 D0 L4. The recent series reads 1 wins for Everton, 1 draws and 0 for Ipswich over 2 games, 3.0 goals on average. Team news worth noting: Everton have Nørgaard ruled out, Patterson ruled out, Aznou ruled out, Beto ruled out. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Ipswich45.7%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Over 11.5 corners30.8%@ 3.25
Medium risk

Both teams to score51.1%@ 1.96
Under 2.5 goals50.9%@ 1.96
Over 9.5 corners49.2%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.20
1-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.86
2-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.16

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Everton

54.3%

Draw

24.2%

Ipswich

21.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.1%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersEverton53.5%Ipswich36.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.0%

Good chance

Over 26.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.1%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Everton12.8 taken14.0 faced
Ipswich13.2 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Everton (4 games)

5.8 / 9.0

Ipswich (4 games)

5.8 / 5.8

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.5%2.549.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.5%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

EvertonLWDDD
IpswichLWLLW

Last 2 meetings: Everton 1 · 1 draws · Ipswich 0 · 3.0 goals/game.

2025-05-03Everton 2-2 Ipswich
2024-10-19Ipswich 0-2 Everton

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EvertonIpswich
League position#9 of 20#10 of 20
Record W-D-L1-3-02-0-2
Current streakD3W1
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Carlos AlcarazEverton · key player
To score5.4%

@ 18.52

1+ on target36.9%

@ 2.71

2+ shots37.2%

@ 2.69

Shots/90 3.02SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.13
Chuba AkpomIpswich · key player
To score22.3%

@ 4.48

1+ on target52.8%

@ 1.89

2+ shots37.7%

@ 2.65

Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.55Goals/90 0.52
Thierno BarryEverton · in form
To score22.8%

@ 4.39

1+ on target41.5%

@ 2.41

2+ shots47.6%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.39
Julio EncisoIpswich · in form
To score8.8%

@ 11.36

1+ on target58.1%

@ 1.72

2+ shots68.2%

@ 1.47

Shots/90 3.31SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.13
Iliman NdiayeEverton · in form
To score20.5%

@ 4.88

1+ on target45.9%

@ 2.18

2+ shots35.5%

@ 2.82

Shots/90 1.36SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.25
Zian FlemmingIpswich · in form
To score32.2%

@ 3.11

1+ on target53.8%

@ 1.86

2+ shots53.9%

@ 1.86

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.59

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Everton win1.90
Draw3.91
Ipswich win4.60
Both teams to score1.96

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.04
Over 3.5 goals3.68
Everton most1.90
Ipswich most4.60

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.97
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Everton most1.86
Ipswich most2.76

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.00
Over 4.5 cards3.26
Over 5.5 cards6.05
Everton most2.87
Ipswich most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.93
Over 9.5 SoT2.48
Everton most1.87
Ipswich most2.87

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.32
Everton most1.64
Ipswich most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.72
Over 22.5 fouls2.39
Over 24.5 fouls3.68

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • NørgaardEvertonOut0% to play
  • PattersonEvertonOut0% to play
  • AznouEvertonOut0% to play
  • BetoEvertonOut0% to play
  • Jack Grealish, Carlos Alcaraz, Tyrique GeorgeEvertonOut

What the absences carry

  • BetoEverton13.1%23.2 xG+xA in 3,141 min
  • Tyrique GeorgeEverton2.6%4.7 xG+xA in 799 min

Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.5% Over 24.5 52.0% Over 26.5 40.6% Over 28.5 30.1%
Most: Everton 61.1% Most: Ipswich 33.4%
Everton Over 13.2 49.7% Ipswich Over 13.2 30.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.7% Over 7.5 63.5% Over 8.5 51.7% Over 9.5 40.4%
Most: Everton 53.3% Most: Ipswich 34.9%
Everton Over 4.2 51.3% Ipswich Over 4.2 37.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.9% Over 3.5 49.9% Over 4.5 30.7%
Most: Everton 34.8% Most: Ipswich 43.6%
Everton Over 1.8 51.4% Ipswich Over 1.8 57.8%

Everton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Carlos Alcaraz 3.02 1.07 0.13 36.9% 37.2% 5.4%
Thierno Barry 2.42 0.81 0.39 41.5% 47.6% 22.8%
Iliman Ndiaye 1.36 0.67 0.25 45.9% 35.5% 20.5%
Brennan Johnson 1.73 0.54 0.3 28.8% 29.7% 17.2%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 1.45 0.53 0.25 33.8% 31.1% 17.7%

Ipswich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Chuba Akpom 2.71 1.55 0.52 52.8% 37.7% 22.3%
Julio Enciso 3.31 1.22 0.13 58.1% 68.2% 8.8%
Zian Flemming 2.74 1.17 0.59 53.8% 53.9% 32.2%
Emersonn 2.95 1.12 0.46 50.8% 55.8% 25.3%
Kasey McAteer 1.32 0.81 0.1 35.8% 16.3% 5.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Everton clean sheet 37.3%
Ipswich clean sheet 19.0%
Everton win to nil 29.6%
Ipswich win to nil 11.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.7% draw 25.6% away 21.7%
double_chance
1X 78.3% 12 74.4% X2 47.3%
dnb
home 70.8% away 29.2%
btts
yes 51.1% no 48.9%
clean_sheet
home 37.6% away 19.1%
win_to_nil
home 29.8% away 11.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.9% home_by_2 16.4% home_by_3plus 12.4%
away_by_1 13.9% away_by_2 5.7% away_by_3plus 2.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 6.4% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.3% 1-1 12.2% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.8% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.4% 3-1 5.3% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.3% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.5%
under_1.5 25.5% over_2.5 49.1% under_2.5 50.9%
over_3.5 27.2% under_3.5 72.8% over_4.5 12.8%
under_4.5 87.2% over_5.5 5.2% under_5.5 94.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 80.9% under_0.5 19.1% over_1.5 49.3%
under_1.5 50.7% over_2.5 23.2% under_2.5 76.8%
team_away
over_0.5 62.4% under_0.5 37.6% over_1.5 25.7%
under_1.5 74.3% over_2.5 7.7% under_2.5 92.3%
most
home 52.7% draw 25.6% away 21.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.4% away_+2.5 87.6% home_-1.5 28.8%
away_+1.5 71.2% home_-0.5 52.7% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 78.3% away_-0.5 21.7% home_+1.5 92.2%
away_-1.5 7.8% home_+2.5 97.9% away_-2.5 2.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 17.7% exact_2 25.5%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.4% exact_5 7.6%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.1% draw 37.9% away 20.1%
total
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
btts
yes 22.8% no 77.2%
total_exact
exact_0 25.6% exact_1 34.9% exact_2 23.8%
exact_3 10.8% exact_4plus 5.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.4% draw 33.6% away 22.0%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.2% over_1.5 49.1%
under_1.5 50.9% over_2.5 23.0% under_2.5 77.0%
btts
yes 29.8% no 70.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.4% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.7%
D/H 16.8% D/D 12.7% D/A 8.3%
A/H 3.0% A/D 4.7% A/A 12.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.7% under_7.5 26.3% over_8.5 62.5%
under_8.5 37.5% over_9.5 50.8% under_9.5 49.2%
over_10.5 39.4% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 29.2%
under_11.5 70.8% over_12.5 20.8% under_12.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.7% under_3.5 27.3% over_4.5 58.0%
under_4.5 42.0% over_5.5 43.5% under_5.5 56.5%
team_away
over_3.5 61.1% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.4% under_5.5 69.6%
most
home 53.6% draw 10.1% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.9% away_+3.5 75.1% home_-1.5 43.4%
away_+1.5 56.6% home_-0.5 53.6% away_+0.5 46.4%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+1.5 72.9%
away_-1.5 27.1% home_+3.5 86.9% away_-3.5 13.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.5% under_22.5 36.5% over_24.5 52.0%
under_24.5 48.0% over_26.5 40.6% under_26.5 59.4%
over_28.5 30.1% under_28.5 69.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.4% under_10.5 27.6% over_12.5 57.4%
under_12.5 42.6% over_14.5 42.3% under_14.5 57.7%
team_away
over_10.5 54.0% under_10.5 46.0% over_12.5 37.3%
under_12.5 62.7% over_14.5 23.7% under_14.5 76.3%
most
home 61.1% draw 5.5% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.9% away_+4.5 62.1% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 61.1% away_+0.5 38.9%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+2.5 76.5%
away_-2.5 23.5% home_+4.5 84.6% away_-4.5 15.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.7% under_6.5 25.3% over_7.5 63.5%
under_7.5 36.5% over_8.5 51.7% under_8.5 48.3%
over_9.5 40.4% under_9.5 59.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 51.3%
under_4.5 48.7% over_5.5 36.4% under_5.5 63.6%
team_away
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 45.0% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 24.1% under_5.5 75.9%
most
home 53.3% draw 11.8% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.3% away_+2.5 69.7% home_-0.5 53.3%
away_+0.5 46.7% home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9%
home_+2.5 83.9% away_-2.5 16.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.9% under_2.5 29.1% over_3.5 49.9%
under_3.5 50.1% over_4.5 30.7% under_4.5 69.3%
over_5.5 16.5% under_5.5 83.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.4% under_1.5 48.6% over_2.5 24.9%
under_2.5 75.1%
team_away
over_1.5 57.9% under_1.5 42.2% over_2.5 30.8%
under_2.5 69.2%
most
home 34.8% draw 21.6% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.6% away_+1.5 82.4% home_-0.5 34.8%
away_+0.5 65.2% home_+0.5 56.4% away_-0.5 43.6%
home_+1.5 75.9% away_-1.5 24.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 58.1% under_20.5 41.9% over_22.5 41.8%
under_22.5 58.2% over_24.5 27.2% under_24.5 72.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.8% under_9.5 41.2% over_11.5 35.6%
under_11.5 64.4% over_13.5 17.8% under_13.5 82.2%
team_away
over_9.5 67.5% under_9.5 32.5% over_11.5 44.9%
under_11.5 55.1% over_13.5 25.0% under_13.5 75.0%
most
home 39.3% draw 8.2% away 52.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.6% away_+3.5 81.4% home_-0.5 39.3%
away_+0.5 60.7% home_+2.5 63.8% away_-2.5 36.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
home
yes 15.1% no 84.9%
away
yes 2.3% no 97.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Everton predictions · Ipswich predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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