Shots
| Over 22.5 |
63.2% |
Over 24.5 |
50.7% |
Over 26.5 |
38.5% |
Over 28.5 |
27.5% |
| Most: Swansea |
59.5% |
Most: Burnley |
34.5% |
| Swansea Over 13.2 |
47.1% |
Burnley Over 13.2 |
29.5% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
65.1% |
Over 7.5 |
51.9% |
Over 8.5 |
39.2% |
Over 9.5 |
28.1% |
| Most: Swansea |
52.1% |
Most: Burnley |
34.7% |
| Swansea Over 4.2 |
42.1% |
Burnley Over 4.2 |
29.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
74.1% |
Over 3.5 |
53.9% |
Over 4.5 |
34.4% |
| Most: Swansea |
30.4% |
Most: Burnley |
49.1% |
| Swansea Over 1.8 |
50.4% |
Burnley Over 1.8 |
63.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Swansea clean sheet |
41.3% |
| Burnley clean sheet |
18.1% |
| Swansea win to nil |
33.2% |
| Burnley win to nil |
10.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
56.5% |
draw |
24.9% |
away |
18.5% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
81.5% |
12 |
75.1% |
X2 |
43.5% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
24.7% |
home_by_2 |
17.6% |
home_by_3plus |
14.2% |
| away_by_1 |
12.4% |
away_by_2 |
4.6% |
away_by_3plus |
1.5% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
8.1% |
0-1 |
6.0% |
0-2 |
2.9% |
| 0-3 |
0.9% |
0-4 |
0.2% |
0-5 |
0.0% |
| 1-0 |
12.3% |
1-1 |
11.9% |
1-2 |
5.0% |
| 1-3 |
1.5% |
1-4 |
0.3% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
11.0% |
2-1 |
9.7% |
2-2 |
4.2% |
| 2-3 |
1.2% |
2-4 |
0.3% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
6.3% |
3-1 |
5.5% |
3-2 |
2.4% |
| 3-3 |
0.7% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.0% |
| 4-0 |
2.7% |
4-1 |
2.4% |
4-2 |
1.0% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.9% |
5-1 |
0.8% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.9% |
likeliest_score
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
91.9% |
under_0.5 |
8.1% |
over_1.5 |
73.6% |
| under_1.5 |
26.4% |
over_2.5 |
47.9% |
under_2.5 |
52.2% |
| over_3.5 |
26.1% |
under_3.5 |
73.9% |
over_4.5 |
12.1% |
| under_4.5 |
87.9% |
over_5.5 |
4.8% |
under_5.5 |
95.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
81.9% |
under_0.5 |
18.1% |
over_1.5 |
51.0% |
| under_1.5 |
49.0% |
over_2.5 |
24.6% |
under_2.5 |
75.4% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
58.4% |
under_0.5 |
41.6% |
over_1.5 |
21.9% |
| under_1.5 |
78.1% |
over_2.5 |
5.9% |
under_2.5 |
94.1% |
|
most
| home |
56.5% |
draw |
24.9% |
away |
18.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
14.2% |
away_+2.5 |
85.8% |
home_-1.5 |
31.8% |
| away_+1.5 |
68.2% |
home_-0.5 |
56.5% |
away_+0.5 |
43.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
81.5% |
away_-0.5 |
18.5% |
home_+1.5 |
93.8% |
| away_-1.5 |
6.2% |
home_+2.5 |
98.5% |
away_-2.5 |
1.5% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
8.1% |
exact_1 |
18.3% |
exact_2 |
25.7% |
| exact_3 |
21.7% |
exact_4 |
14.1% |
exact_5 |
7.3% |
| exact_6 |
3.1% |
exact_7plus |
1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.0% |
draw |
41.4% |
away |
25.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
70.6% |
under_0.5 |
29.4% |
over_1.5 |
34.6% |
| under_1.5 |
65.4% |
over_2.5 |
12.6% |
under_2.5 |
87.4% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
29.4% |
exact_1 |
36.0% |
exact_2 |
22.0% |
| exact_3 |
9.0% |
exact_4plus |
3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
37.3% |
draw |
39.2% |
away |
23.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
73.4% |
under_0.5 |
26.6% |
over_1.5 |
38.2% |
| under_1.5 |
61.9% |
over_2.5 |
14.8% |
under_2.5 |
85.2% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
27.0% |
H/D |
4.6% |
H/A |
1.4% |
| D/H |
15.4% |
D/D |
16.2% |
D/A |
9.7% |
| A/H |
2.5% |
A/D |
5.4% |
A/A |
17.7% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
77.0% |
under_7.5 |
23.0% |
over_8.5 |
66.2% |
| under_8.5 |
33.8% |
over_9.5 |
54.4% |
under_9.5 |
45.6% |
| over_10.5 |
42.6% |
under_10.5 |
57.4% |
over_11.5 |
31.8% |
| under_11.5 |
68.2% |
over_12.5 |
22.7% |
under_12.5 |
77.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
75.9% |
under_3.5 |
24.2% |
over_4.5 |
61.0% |
| under_4.5 |
39.0% |
over_5.5 |
45.7% |
under_5.5 |
54.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.7% |
under_3.5 |
35.3% |
over_4.5 |
47.6% |
| under_4.5 |
52.4% |
over_5.5 |
32.3% |
under_5.5 |
67.7% |
|
most
| home |
53.6% |
draw |
10.6% |
away |
35.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
23.5% |
away_+3.5 |
76.5% |
home_-1.5 |
42.8% |
| away_+1.5 |
57.2% |
home_-0.5 |
53.6% |
away_+0.5 |
46.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.3% |
away_-0.5 |
35.8% |
home_+1.5 |
73.8% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.2% |
home_+3.5 |
88.1% |
away_-3.5 |
11.9% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
63.2% |
under_22.5 |
36.8% |
over_24.5 |
50.7% |
| under_24.5 |
49.3% |
over_26.5 |
38.5% |
under_26.5 |
61.5% |
| over_28.5 |
27.5% |
under_28.5 |
72.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
72.1% |
under_10.5 |
27.9% |
over_12.5 |
55.5% |
| under_12.5 |
44.5% |
over_14.5 |
39.1% |
under_14.5 |
60.9% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
55.6% |
under_10.5 |
44.4% |
over_12.5 |
37.5% |
| under_12.5 |
62.5% |
over_14.5 |
22.7% |
under_14.5 |
77.3% |
|
most
| home |
59.5% |
draw |
6.1% |
away |
34.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
34.5% |
away_+4.5 |
65.5% |
home_-2.5 |
46.8% |
| away_+2.5 |
53.2% |
home_-0.5 |
59.5% |
away_+0.5 |
40.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.6% |
away_-0.5 |
34.4% |
home_+2.5 |
76.4% |
| away_-2.5 |
23.6% |
home_+4.5 |
85.0% |
away_-4.5 |
15.0% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
65.1% |
under_6.5 |
34.9% |
over_7.5 |
51.9% |
| under_7.5 |
48.1% |
over_8.5 |
39.2% |
under_8.5 |
60.8% |
| over_9.5 |
28.1% |
under_9.5 |
71.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
59.8% |
under_3.5 |
40.2% |
over_4.5 |
42.1% |
| under_4.5 |
57.9% |
over_5.5 |
27.2% |
under_5.5 |
72.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
47.4% |
under_3.5 |
52.6% |
over_4.5 |
29.9% |
| under_4.5 |
70.1% |
over_5.5 |
17.1% |
under_5.5 |
82.9% |
|
most
| home |
52.2% |
draw |
13.1% |
away |
34.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
26.9% |
away_+2.5 |
73.1% |
home_-0.5 |
52.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
47.9% |
home_+0.5 |
65.3% |
away_-0.5 |
34.7% |
| home_+2.5 |
85.6% |
away_-2.5 |
14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
74.1% |
under_2.5 |
25.9% |
over_3.5 |
53.9% |
| under_3.5 |
46.1% |
over_4.5 |
34.4% |
under_4.5 |
65.6% |
| over_5.5 |
19.3% |
under_5.5 |
80.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.4% |
under_1.5 |
49.6% |
over_2.5 |
24.0% |
| under_2.5 |
76.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
63.8% |
under_1.5 |
36.2% |
over_2.5 |
36.9% |
| under_2.5 |
63.1% |
most
| home |
30.4% |
draw |
20.6% |
away |
49.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
14.8% |
away_+1.5 |
85.2% |
home_-0.5 |
30.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
69.6% |
home_+0.5 |
50.9% |
away_-0.5 |
49.1% |
| home_+1.5 |
70.9% |
away_-1.5 |
29.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
63.0% |
under_20.5 |
37.0% |
over_22.5 |
47.5% |
| under_22.5 |
52.5% |
over_24.5 |
32.8% |
under_24.5 |
67.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
52.3% |
under_9.5 |
47.7% |
over_11.5 |
30.2% |
| under_11.5 |
69.8% |
over_13.5 |
14.5% |
under_13.5 |
85.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
77.4% |
under_9.5 |
22.6% |
over_11.5 |
57.9% |
| under_11.5 |
42.1% |
over_13.5 |
37.5% |
under_13.5 |
62.5% |
|
most
| home |
27.4% |
draw |
7.0% |
away |
65.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
11.6% |
away_+3.5 |
88.4% |
home_-0.5 |
27.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
72.6% |
home_+2.5 |
49.7% |
away_-2.5 |
50.3% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Championship
Burnley