West Brom vs QPR prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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West Brom vs QPR: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Championship
West Brom

WLDWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202612:30UK
QPR

DWWLD

Model’s top convictions

73%

West Brom or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
West BromWin probability
44.3%
Top 3 convictions

West Brom or draw72.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.38
Over 1.5 goals69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Over 8.5 corners65.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

West Brom versus QPR on 12 September 2026 tilts towards West Brom in our numbers (44%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 47%. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 48%. • Form guide over the last six: West Brom W4 D1 L1, QPR W3 D2 L1. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for West Brom, 1 draws and 1 for QPR at 3.2 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.5%@ 2.25
Over 2.5 goals42.9%@ 2.33
Over 11.5 corners34.8%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals57.1%@ 1.75
Draw or QPR55.6%@ 1.80
Over 9.5 corners54.9%@ 1.82
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.45
1-0 correct score11.9%@ 8.42
0-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.27

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

West Brom

44.3%-2.6%

Draw

28.4%+0.6%

QPR

27.2%+1.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.5%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.9%

Good chance

Over 10.544.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.534.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersWest Brom60.0%QPR29.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.547.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

West Brom10.0 taken12.3 faced
QPR16.8 taken10.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.7%2.542.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.569.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

West BromWLDWW
QPRDWWLD

Last 5 meetings: West Brom 3 · 1 draws · QPR 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2025-12-29West Brom 2-1 QPR
2025-12-06QPR 3-1 West Brom
2025-03-08West Brom 1-0 QPR
2024-08-10QPR 1-3 West Brom
2024-03-06QPR 2-2 West Brom

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

West BromQPR
League position#1 of 24#5 of 24
Record W-D-L4-1-13-2-1
Current streakW2D1
Points per game2.171.83
Record, home vs away2-1-02-1-0
PPG, home vs away2.332.33
Goals scored per game1.501.17
Goals conceded per game1.000.67
Scored, home vs away1.671.67
Conceded, home vs away0.670.67
1st half goals per game0.500.67
2nd half goals per game1.000.50
Corners won per game4.57.0
Cards per game2.51.2
Fouls per game9.78.0
Red cards this season10
Shots per game10.016.8
Shots faced per game12.310.8
Shots on target per game3.85.5
Over 2.5 rate

50.0%50.0%

BTTS rate

66.7%50.0%

Clean sheets

33.3%33.3%

Rates this season:West BromQPR

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
West Brom win2.012.26
Draw3.303.52
QPR win3.603.68
Over 2.5 goals1.852.33
Under 2.5 goals2.001.75

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

West Brom win2.26
Draw3.52
QPR win3.67
Both teams to score2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.43
Over 2.5 goals2.33
Over 3.5 goals4.53
West Brom most2.26
QPR most3.67

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.22
West Brom most1.66
QPR most3.35

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.48
Over 3.5 cards2.18
Over 4.5 cards3.70
Over 5.5 cards7.18
West Brom most3.06
QPR most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.64
Over 7.5 SoT2.11
Over 8.5 SoT2.87
Over 9.5 SoT4.12
West Brom most1.78
QPR most3.27

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.66
Over 24.5 shots2.10
Over 26.5 shots2.82
Over 28.5 shots4.02
West Brom most1.56
QPR most3.34

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.92
Over 22.5 fouls2.76
Over 24.5 fouls4.34
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 60.3% Over 24.5 47.6% Over 26.5 35.5% Over 28.5 24.9%
Most: West Brom 64.2% Most: QPR 29.9%
West Brom Over 13.2 48.3% QPR Over 13.2 24.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 60.9% Over 7.5 47.5% Over 8.5 34.9% Over 9.5 24.3%
Most: West Brom 56.3% Most: QPR 30.6%
West Brom Over 4.2 41.9% QPR Over 4.2 24.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.5% Over 3.5 45.8% Over 4.5 27.0%
Most: West Brom 32.7% Most: QPR 45.2%
West Brom Over 1.8 47.0% QPR Over 1.8 56.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

West Brom clean sheet 35.9%
QPR clean sheet 25.3%
West Brom win to nil 26.2%
QPR win to nil 15.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.3% draw 28.4% away 27.2%
double_chance
1X 72.8% 12 71.6% X2 55.7%
dnb
home 61.9% away 38.1%
btts
yes 48.4% no 51.6%
clean_sheet
home 36.0% away 25.3%
win_to_nil
home 26.3% away 15.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.0% home_by_2 13.4% home_by_3plus 7.9%
away_by_1 16.9% away_by_2 7.4% away_by_3plus 2.9%
correct_score
0-0 9.7% 0-1 8.7% 0-2 4.8%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.9% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.6% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.3% under_0.5 9.7% over_1.5 69.7%
under_1.5 30.3% over_2.5 42.9% under_2.5 57.1%
over_3.5 22.1% under_3.5 77.9% over_4.5 9.6%
under_4.5 90.5% over_5.5 3.6% under_5.5 96.5%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
team_away
over_0.5 64.0% under_0.5 36.0% over_1.5 27.2%
under_1.5 72.8% over_2.5 8.4% under_2.5 91.6%
most
home 44.3% draw 28.4% away 27.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.9% away_+2.5 92.1% home_-1.5 21.3%
away_+1.5 78.6% home_-0.5 44.3% away_+0.5 55.7%
home_+0.5 72.8% away_-0.5 27.2% home_+1.5 89.7%
away_-1.5 10.3% home_+2.5 97.1% away_-2.5 2.9%
total_exact
exact_0 9.7% exact_1 20.5% exact_2 26.8%
exact_3 20.9% exact_4 12.5% exact_5 6.0%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.0% draw 43.6% away 19.4%
total
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.8%
under_1.5 70.2% over_2.5 9.8% under_2.5 90.2%
btts
yes 16.7% no 83.3%
total_exact
exact_0 33.5% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 7.3% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.7% draw 40.1% away 27.2%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.1%
under_1.5 62.9% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
btts
yes 22.6% no 77.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.2% H/D 5.8% H/A 1.9%
D/H 14.2% D/D 17.5% D/A 11.9%
A/H 1.6% A/D 3.9% A/A 14.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.7% under_7.5 21.3% over_8.5 68.3%
under_8.5 31.7% over_9.5 56.7% under_9.5 43.3%
over_10.5 45.0% under_10.5 55.1% over_11.5 34.0%
under_11.5 66.0% over_12.5 24.6% under_12.5 75.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 80.1% under_3.5 19.9% over_4.5 66.6%
under_4.5 33.4% over_5.5 51.9% under_5.5 48.1%
team_away
over_3.5 61.3% under_3.5 38.7% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.0% over_5.5 28.9% under_5.5 71.1%
most
home 60.2% draw 10.0% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.8% home_-1.5 49.5%
away_+1.5 50.5% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.9%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9% home_+1.5 78.8%
away_-1.5 21.2% home_+3.5 91.0% away_-3.5 9.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.3% under_22.5 39.7% over_24.5 47.6%
under_24.5 52.4% over_26.5 35.4% under_26.5 64.6%
over_28.5 24.9% under_28.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.0% under_10.5 27.0% over_12.5 56.7%
under_12.5 43.4% over_14.5 40.2% under_14.5 59.8%
team_away
over_10.5 49.8% under_10.5 50.2% over_12.5 31.8%
under_12.5 68.2% over_14.5 18.2% under_14.5 81.8%
most
home 64.2% draw 5.9% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.9% away_+4.5 61.1% home_-2.5 51.6%
away_+2.5 48.4% home_-0.5 64.2% away_+0.5 35.8%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9% home_+2.5 80.3%
away_-2.5 19.7% home_+4.5 88.0% away_-4.5 12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 60.9% under_6.5 39.1% over_7.5 47.4%
under_7.5 52.6% over_8.5 34.9% under_8.5 65.1%
over_9.5 24.3% under_9.5 75.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.5% under_3.5 40.5% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.1%
team_away
over_3.5 40.8% under_3.5 59.2% over_4.5 24.2%
under_4.5 75.9% over_5.5 12.9% under_5.5 87.1%
most
home 56.3% draw 13.1% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.8% away_+2.5 70.2% home_-0.5 56.3%
away_+0.5 43.7% home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6%
home_+2.5 88.5% away_-2.5 11.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.5% under_2.5 32.5% over_3.5 45.8%
under_3.5 54.2% over_4.5 27.0% under_4.5 73.0%
over_5.5 13.9% under_5.5 86.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 47.0% under_1.5 53.0% over_2.5 21.3%
under_2.5 78.7%
team_away
over_1.5 56.4% under_1.5 43.6% over_2.5 29.4%
under_2.5 70.6%
most
home 32.7% draw 22.1% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.7% away_+1.5 84.3% home_-0.5 32.7%
away_+0.5 67.3% home_+0.5 54.8% away_-0.5 45.2%
home_+1.5 75.0% away_-1.5 25.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.0% under_20.5 48.0% over_22.5 36.3%
under_22.5 63.7% over_24.5 23.0% under_24.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.7% under_9.5 52.3% over_11.5 26.1%
under_11.5 73.9% over_13.5 11.8% under_13.5 88.2%
team_away
over_9.5 68.6% under_9.5 31.4% over_11.5 46.9%
under_11.5 53.1% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
most
home 31.2% draw 7.6% away 61.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.4% away_+3.5 86.6% home_-0.5 31.2%
away_+0.5 68.8% home_+2.5 55.0% away_-2.5 45.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
home
yes 4.1% no 95.9%
away
yes 1.9% no 98.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: West Brom predictions · QPR predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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