Eredivisie
Zwolle vs 
Nijmegen Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 36.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 58.1% for over 2.5 to 9.0% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.1%. On the card count, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 23.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 9.0% | 91.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
39.3%
15.9%
49.4%
23.7%
Card handicap
| Zwolle line | Zwolle | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| -0.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +1.5 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.2% | 64.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Zwolle vs Nijmegen. Slightly more cards are projected for Nijmegen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
36.0%Over 3.5 cards12.5%Any red card39.3%Zwolle over 1.5 cards49.4%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards49.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Zwolle over 1.5 cards sits at 39.3% and Nijmegen at 49.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.5% (Zwolle 7.0%, Nijmegen 5.9%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Zwolle vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 36.0% for Zwolle vs Nijmegen.
Will there be a red card in Zwolle vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Zwolle vs Nijmegen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nijmegen to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 23.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.