Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
Excelsior Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 62.6% and it landed (29 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 75.2% and it landed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 62.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 72.9% for over 22.5 to 40.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. On the shot count, Willem II are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.1%, with a level count at 5.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 40.8% | 59.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.4%
60.1%
45.3%
66.2%
50.4%
35.6%
Shot handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| -2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| -0.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| +0.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 54.3% | 45.7% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Willem II.
In-depth analysis
62.6%Over 24.5 shots60.1%Willem II over 12.5 shots50.4%Excelsior over 12.5 shots75.2%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Willem II over 12.5 shots sits at 60.1% and Excelsior at 50.4%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Willem II vs Excelsior?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 62.6% for Willem II vs Excelsior.
Which team will have more shots in Willem II vs Excelsior?
Before kickoff, the model rated Willem II to take more shots at 54.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.