Serie A
Venezia vs 
Fiorentina Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 39.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 61.3% for over 7.5 to 15.3% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. On the corner count, Venezia are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.3% | 84.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.2%
50.5%
37.1%
50.9%
35.4%
23.2%
Corner handicap
| Venezia line | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| -0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Venezia.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Venezia over 4.5 corners sits at 50.5% and Fiorentina at 35.4%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 39.2% for Venezia vs Fiorentina.
Which team will win the corner count in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
The model rates Venezia to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 3,406 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.