Espanol vs Real Madrid: model prediction
La Liga
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Real Madrid
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Real Madrid at 51.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 55.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Real Madrid heavy favourites at 52% when Espanol meet Real Madrid in the La Liga on 22 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Real Madrid at 67%. Caution noted. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. 3) Schedule edge: Real Madrid have had 85 more days of rest than Espanol. The recent series reads 1 wins for Espanol, 0 draws and 4 for Real Madrid over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Espanol W3 D1 L2, Real Madrid W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
24.1%+11.5%
24.3%+3.9%
51.7%-15.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Espanol 1 · 0 draws · Real Madrid 4 · 2.8 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 1.72
@ 1.12
@ 1.05
@ 2.95
@ 1.50
@ 1.31
@ 8.33
@ 2.21
@ 2.07
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.6% | Over 7.5 | 62.7% | Over 8.5 | 50.1% | Over 9.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Espanol | 45.7% | Most: Real Madrid | 41.5% | ||||
| Espanol Over 4.2 | 45.2% | Real Madrid Over 4.2 | 42.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.0% | Over 3.5 | 63.7% | Over 4.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Espanol | 41.9% | Most: Real Madrid | 38.8% | ||
| Espanol Over 1.8 | 65.0% | Real Madrid Over 1.8 | 63.0% |
Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 4.98 | 2.37 | 0.92 | 89.5% | 94.9% | 58.3% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 3.2 | 1.27 | 0.48 | 66.5% | 76.2% | 33.9% |
| Rodrygo | 2.8 | 1.04 | 0.22 | 45.3% | 48.3% | 12.0% |
| Jude Bellingham | 2.34 | 1.01 | 0.31 | 56.9% | 58.1% | 22.8% |
| Arda Güler | 2.38 | 0.95 | 0.19 | 44.3% | 43.1% | 11.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Espanol clean sheet | 19.1% |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 32.5% |
| Espanol win to nil | 12.3% |
| Real Madrid win to nil | 25.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 25.6% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 50.6% | 12 | 74.5% | X2 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.7% | away | 66.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.0% | no | 45.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 19.1% | away | 32.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 12.3% | away | 25.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.2% | home_by_2 | 6.9% | home_by_3plus | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.8% | away_by_2 | 15.2% | away_by_3plus | 11.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 0-1 | 9.8% | 0-2 | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.7% | 0-4 | 2.0% | 0-5 | 0.7% |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 1-1 | 12.1% | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-3 | 5.3% | 1-4 | 2.2% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 3.9% | 2-1 | 6.5% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.9% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 1.5% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.2% | under_0.5 | 6.9% | over_1.5 | 77.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.0% | over_2.5 | 52.4% | under_2.5 | 47.6% |
| over_3.5 | 30.2% | under_3.5 | 69.8% | over_4.5 | 14.8% |
| under_4.5 | 85.2% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 67.3% | under_0.5 | 32.7% | over_1.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.3% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 80.9% | under_0.5 | 19.1% | over_1.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.7% | over_2.5 | 23.1% | under_2.5 | 76.9% |
most
| home | 25.1% | draw | 25.6% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.0% | away_+2.5 | 97.0% | home_-1.5 | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 90.1% | home_-0.5 | 25.1% | away_+0.5 | 74.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 50.6% | away_-0.5 | 49.4% | home_+1.5 | 73.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.6% | home_+2.5 | 88.7% | away_-2.5 | 11.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.9% | exact_1 | 16.2% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.5% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 20.7% | draw | 45.4% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.3% | under_0.5 | 35.7% | over_1.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.5% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
btts
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.7% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.5% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.0% | draw | 34.2% | away | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.5% | under_0.5 | 19.5% | over_1.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.4% | over_2.5 | 22.5% | under_2.5 | 77.5% |
btts
| yes | 30.0% | no | 70.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 13.1% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.9% | D/D | 15.6% | D/A | 19.0% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 27.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.2% | under_7.5 | 26.8% | over_8.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.4% | over_9.5 | 49.4% | under_9.5 | 50.6% |
| over_10.5 | 37.7% | under_10.5 | 62.3% | over_11.5 | 27.4% |
| under_11.5 | 72.6% | over_12.5 | 19.0% | under_12.5 | 81.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.2% | under_3.5 | 28.8% | over_4.5 | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.6% | over_5.5 | 40.0% | under_5.5 | 60.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.7% | under_3.5 | 36.3% | over_4.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.2% | over_5.5 | 31.7% | under_5.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 50.2% | draw | 10.9% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.8% | away_+3.5 | 79.2% | home_-1.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.2% | away_+0.5 | 49.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.1% | away_-0.5 | 38.9% | home_+1.5 | 71.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.9% | home_+3.5 | 86.5% | away_-3.5 | 13.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.6% | under_22.5 | 38.4% | over_24.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.9% | over_26.5 | 37.0% | under_26.5 | 63.1% |
| over_28.5 | 26.3% | under_28.5 | 73.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.0% | under_10.5 | 30.0% | over_12.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.9% | over_14.5 | 36.8% | under_14.5 | 63.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.8% | under_10.5 | 44.2% | over_12.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.3% | over_14.5 | 23.0% | under_14.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 57.6% | draw | 6.2% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.8% | away_+4.5 | 67.2% | home_-2.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.1% | home_-0.5 | 57.6% | away_+0.5 | 42.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.8% | away_-0.5 | 36.2% | home_+2.5 | 75.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.0% | home_+4.5 | 84.0% | away_-4.5 | 16.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.6% | under_6.5 | 25.4% | over_7.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.3% | over_8.5 | 50.1% | under_8.5 | 49.9% |
| over_9.5 | 38.0% | under_9.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.0% | under_3.5 | 37.0% | over_4.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.8% | over_5.5 | 29.6% | under_5.5 | 70.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.1% | under_3.5 | 39.9% | over_4.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.9% | over_5.5 | 26.9% | under_5.5 | 73.1% |
most
| home | 45.7% | draw | 12.8% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.8% | away_+2.5 | 77.2% | home_-0.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.3% | home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.4% | away_-2.5 | 19.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.0% | under_2.5 | 19.0% | over_3.5 | 63.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 36.3% | over_4.5 | 45.0% | under_4.5 | 55.0% |
| over_5.5 | 28.5% | under_5.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.0% | under_1.5 | 35.0% | over_2.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.0% | under_1.5 | 37.0% | over_2.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.3% |
most
| home | 41.9% | draw | 19.3% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.6% | away_+1.5 | 75.4% | home_-0.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.1% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.9% | away_-1.5 | 22.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 78.9% | under_20.5 | 21.1% | over_22.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 33.2% | over_24.5 | 53.2% | under_24.5 | 46.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.4% | under_9.5 | 15.6% | over_11.5 | 69.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 31.0% | over_13.5 | 50.7% | under_13.5 | 49.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 66.9% | under_9.5 | 33.2% | over_11.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.9% | over_13.5 | 27.6% | under_13.5 | 72.4% |
most
| home | 63.2% | draw | 6.4% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 42.5% | away_+3.5 | 57.5% | home_-0.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 36.8% | home_+2.5 | 80.6% | away_-2.5 | 19.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 20.1% | no | 79.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 14.4% | no | 85.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.8% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Espanol predictions · Real Madrid predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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