Ath Madrid vs Malaga: model prediction
La Liga
Ath Madrid or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Ath Madrid at 72.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 58.3% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 50.7% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Ath Madrid carry a 73% win probability against Malaga on 19 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • One eye on the skies, with 30 degrees of heat in the forecast. • The run in: Ath Madrid arrive W4 D0 L2, Malaga W1 D0 L5. Fatigue may matter, with Ath Madrid 2927 days shorter on recovery than Malaga. As a promoted side, Malaga carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Ath Madrid, 0 draws and 0 for Malaga at 2.2 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
72.8%
17.2%
10.0%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 5 · 0 draws · Malaga 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 75.0% | Over 7.5 | 63.2% | Over 8.5 | 50.7% | Over 9.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 64.3% | Most: Malaga | 24.5% | ||||
| Ath Madrid Over 4.2 | 58.1% | Malaga Over 4.2 | 28.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 79.0% | Over 3.5 | 61.0% | Over 4.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 37.6% | Most: Malaga | 42.8% | ||
| Ath Madrid Over 1.8 | 60.3% | Malaga Over 1.8 | 63.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Ath Madrid clean sheet | 42.4% |
|---|---|
| Malaga clean sheet | 11.1% |
| Ath Madrid win to nil | 37.1% |
| Malaga win to nil | 5.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 68.1% | draw | 19.5% | away | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 87.6% | 12 | 80.5% | X2 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 84.6% | away | 15.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.7% | no | 49.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 43.5% | away | 11.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 38.2% | away | 5.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 20.6% | home_by_3plus | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 8.6% | away_by_2 | 3.0% | away_by_3plus | 0.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.3% | 0-1 | 3.6% | 0-2 | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 1-1 | 9.3% | 1-2 | 3.7% |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1-4 | 0.2% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 11.7% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 8.5% | 3-1 | 7.1% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 4.7% | 4-1 | 3.9% | 4-2 | 1.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 2.1% | 5-1 | 1.7% | 5-2 | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.7% | under_0.5 | 5.3% | over_1.5 | 81.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.1% | over_2.5 | 58.3% | under_2.5 | 41.7% |
| over_3.5 | 35.9% | under_3.5 | 64.1% | over_4.5 | 19.0% |
| under_4.5 | 81.0% | over_5.5 | 8.7% | under_5.5 | 91.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 88.9% | under_0.5 | 11.1% | over_1.5 | 64.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.5% | over_2.5 | 37.6% | under_2.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 56.5% | under_0.5 | 43.5% | over_1.5 | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.7% | over_2.5 | 5.2% | under_2.5 | 94.8% |
most
| home | 68.1% | draw | 19.5% | away | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.1% | away_+2.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.3% | home_-0.5 | 68.1% | away_+0.5 | 32.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 87.6% | away_-0.5 | 12.4% | home_+1.5 | 96.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 3.9% | home_+2.5 | 99.1% | away_-2.5 | 0.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.3% | exact_1 | 13.8% | exact_2 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.0% | exact_5 | 10.3% |
| exact_6 | 5.2% | exact_7plus | 3.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.5% | draw | 38.3% | away | 19.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.5% | under_0.5 | 26.5% | over_1.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.7% | over_2.5 | 14.9% | under_2.5 | 85.1% |
btts
| yes | 21.7% | no | 78.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.5% | exact_1 | 35.2% | exact_2 | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.4% | exact_4plus | 4.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.9% | draw | 34.8% | away | 19.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.4% | under_0.5 | 21.6% | over_1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.7% | over_2.5 | 20.0% | under_2.5 | 80.1% |
btts
| yes | 26.2% | no | 73.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 36.6% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.6% | D/D | 13.3% | D/A | 7.4% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 11.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.7% | over_9.5 | 51.3% | under_9.5 | 48.7% |
| over_10.5 | 39.6% | under_10.5 | 60.4% | over_11.5 | 29.1% |
| under_11.5 | 70.9% | over_12.5 | 20.4% | under_12.5 | 79.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.7% | under_3.5 | 22.3% | over_4.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.4% | over_5.5 | 48.7% | under_5.5 | 51.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.0% | under_3.5 | 43.0% | over_4.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.4% | over_5.5 | 25.3% | under_5.5 | 74.7% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 10.0% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.4% | away_+3.5 | 70.6% | home_-1.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.1% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% | away_+0.5 | 39.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.7% | away_-0.5 | 29.3% | home_+1.5 | 79.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.7% | home_+3.5 | 91.3% | away_-3.5 | 8.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.7% | under_22.5 | 39.4% | over_24.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.0% | over_26.5 | 35.9% | under_26.5 | 64.1% |
| over_28.5 | 25.2% | under_28.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.7% | under_10.5 | 25.3% | over_12.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.2% | over_14.5 | 42.4% | under_14.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.8% | under_10.5 | 52.2% | over_12.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.9% | over_14.5 | 16.9% | under_14.5 | 83.1% |
most
| home | 66.9% | draw | 5.6% | away | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.8% | away_+4.5 | 58.3% | home_-2.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.5% | home_-0.5 | 66.9% | away_+0.5 | 33.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.5% | away_-0.5 | 27.5% | home_+2.5 | 82.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.8% | home_+4.5 | 89.3% | away_-4.5 | 10.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 75.0% | under_6.5 | 25.0% | over_7.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.8% | over_8.5 | 50.6% | under_8.5 | 49.4% |
| over_9.5 | 38.6% | under_9.5 | 61.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.0% | under_3.5 | 26.0% | over_4.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.9% | over_5.5 | 42.2% | under_5.5 | 57.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 46.5% | under_3.5 | 53.5% | over_4.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.2% | over_5.5 | 16.0% | under_5.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 64.3% | draw | 11.3% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 39.1% | away_+2.5 | 60.9% | home_-0.5 | 64.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 35.7% | home_+0.5 | 75.5% | away_-0.5 | 24.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.0% | away_-2.5 | 9.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 79.0% | under_2.5 | 21.0% | over_3.5 | 61.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 39.1% | over_4.5 | 42.0% | under_4.5 | 58.0% |
| over_5.5 | 25.8% | under_5.5 | 74.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.3% | under_1.5 | 39.7% | over_2.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.8% | under_1.5 | 36.2% | over_2.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.5% |
most
| home | 37.6% | draw | 19.7% | away | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.9% | away_+1.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.5% | home_+0.5 | 57.3% | away_-0.5 | 42.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 68.1% | under_20.5 | 32.0% | over_22.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 46.2% | over_24.5 | 39.7% | under_24.5 | 60.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.4% | under_9.5 | 30.6% | over_11.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.9% | over_13.5 | 30.3% | under_13.5 | 69.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.9% | under_9.5 | 31.2% | over_11.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.6% | over_13.5 | 29.7% | under_13.5 | 70.3% |
most
| home | 46.8% | draw | 7.3% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.5% | away_+3.5 | 73.5% | home_-0.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.2% | home_+2.5 | 68.1% | away_-2.5 | 31.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Ath Madrid predictions · Malaga predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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