League TwoTranmere vs Walsall Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.8% for over 2.5 to 17.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. On the card count, Walsall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 21.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.3%
27.5%
56.7%
29.7%
Card handicap
| Tranmere line | Tranmere | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.0% | 34.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.5% | 64.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8Tranmere cards per game12.2Tranmere fouls per game1.8Walsall cards per game11.8Walsall fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tranmere vs Walsall. The model leans toward Walsall for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
51.1%Over 3.5 cards13.1%Any red card54.3%Tranmere over 1.5 cards56.7%Walsall over 1.5 cards50.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Tranmere over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Walsall at 56.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Tranmere 4.5%, Walsall 9.1%). This season Tranmere have averaged 2.8 cards a game and Walsall 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Tranmere vs Walsall?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.1% for Tranmere vs Walsall.
Will there be a red card in Tranmere vs Walsall?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tranmere vs Walsall?
The model rates Walsall to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
