Eredivisie
Telstar vs 
Cambuur Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 62.8% and it missed (19 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 78.1% and it missed (5 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 62.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.0% for over 22.5 to 41.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. Head to head on shots, Telstar are the model’s pick to have more shots at 53.8%, with a level count at 5.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.4%
60.1%
45.3%
66.5%
50.8%
35.9%
Shot handicap
| Telstar line | Telstar | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| -2.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| -0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 86.1% | 14.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 58.2% | 41.9% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Telstar.
In-depth analysis
62.8%Over 24.5 shots60.1%Telstar over 12.5 shots50.8%Cambuur over 12.5 shots78.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Telstar over 12.5 shots sits at 60.1% and Cambuur at 50.8%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Telstar vs Cambuur?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 62.8% for Telstar vs Cambuur.
Which team will have more shots in Telstar vs Cambuur?
Before kickoff, the model rated Telstar to take more shots at 53.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.