League TwoSwindon vs Accrington Stanley Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 43.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.5% for over 2.5 to 12.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.6%. On the card count, Accrington Stanley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 22.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 12.6% | 87.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.5%
22.5%
52.0%
25.5%
Card handicap
| Swindon line | Swindon | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| -0.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| +0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +1.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.3% | 74.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Swindon cards per game9.7Swindon fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Swindon vs Accrington Stanley. Slightly more cards are projected for Accrington Stanley for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
43.6%Over 3.5 cards13.5%Any red card48.5%Swindon over 1.5 cards52.0%Accrington Stanley over 1.5 cards39.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Swindon over 1.5 cards sits at 48.5% and Accrington Stanley at 52.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.5% (Swindon 6.8%, Accrington Stanley 7.2%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 43.6% for Swindon vs Accrington Stanley.
Will there be a red card in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Swindon vs Accrington Stanley?
The model rates Accrington Stanley to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 22.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
